The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Patrick Mahomes vs. Indianapolis Colts – $6,500 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
Throughout this post, we’ll rely heavily on an evenly blended three-way aggregate of Carty, Raybon, and Koerner’s projections, as highlighted above. Of the six QBs pulling up to the table for Thursday’s feast of football, Mahomes has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the blended projections on both sites.
He had 21.1 DraftKings points last week, even without a touchdown against the Colts in the Chiefs’ overtime win. He finished with 352 passing yards and is now averaging 270.6 yards per game with 18 passing touchdowns and four rushing scores in his 11 games.
Mahomes and the Chiefs have been talking about how excited they are to play on Thanksgiving Day, and they should bring their top game since it’s a unique experience for them this season.
Mahomes also has a great matchup for QBs against the Cowboys, who have given up the most DraftKings points per game of any team in the NFL to opposing QBs. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 270.3 passing yards against the Chiefs, the second-highest average in the NFL. They have also racked up 24 passing touchdowns and six rushing scores.
If you’re paying up for a QB, Mahomes has the top projections available on Turkey Day and a good shot to dig into that turducken at the end of his game in Dallas.
Top Value: Jordan Love at Detroit Lions – $5,500 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
While Mahomes also has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all quarterbacks in the three-way aggregate of the projections on DraftKings, there are some solid value options available as well.
Love has been a little less consistent than Mahomes, but he has been extremely efficient with 15 touchdowns compared to only three interceptions. Love has seven touchdowns in his last seven games since the team’s bye week, helping them go 5-2 during that span.
He showed off his ceiling with 31.3 DraftKings points in Week 8 against the Steelers, and he typically has excelled in his Thanksgiving chances, going 2-0 on Turkey Day with 542 passing yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions and a 127.2 QB rating.
While it isn’t quite as juicy a matchup as Mahomes has, the Lions have given up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year. He racked up 15.9 DraftKings points against Detroit in Week 1, with 188 passing yards and two touchdowns in the Packers’ Week 1 win.
He’s the cheapest starting QB on the board, but he has had enough success to still bring a high ceiling, bringing lots of upside from his affordable price point.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Derrick Henry at Cincinnati Bengals – $7,300 on DraftKings, $9,600 on FanDuel
Although Jahmyr Gibbs has a slightly higher ceiling, median, and floor projection in the aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel, there’s slightly more value from going with Henry. He also has a top-three Plus/Minus projection at his position on both sites.
Henry has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all running backs on DraftKings, where he has a massive 95% Bargain Rating.
The Ravens have made a clear effort to get Henry going in the last two weeks, and the veteran has posted over 20 DraftKings points in each contest. He had a touchdown and over 100 rushing yards against the Browns in Week 11 and a pair of touchdowns against the Jets in Week 12. In that game against the Jets, he got six carries from inside the 5-yard line. Maybe it’s because of Jackson’s litany of injuries, or maybe just to get the veteran power back going, but for whatever reason, Henry’s goal line work gives him a very high ceiling this week in an especially attractive matchup.
The Bengals have allowed more fantasy points per game to running backs than any other team in the NFL. Opposing running backs have posted an embarrassing 131.09 rushing yards and 45.9 receiving yards per game against Cincinnati this year while scoring 15 touchdowns in 11 games.
With such a great spot and so much volume, Henry is a great way to save $1,500 on DraftKings compared to Gibbs and get some late-night thunder in your lineup from the final game of the day.
Top Value: Javonte Williams vs. Kansas City Chiefs – $6,300 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel
Like Henry, Williams is very underpriced on DraftKings compared to FanDuel, as you can see from his 97% Bargain Rating. He has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at the position as well on DraftKings and brings a high ceiling and a high floor to his matchup against the Chiefs.
Williams is getting virtually all the work in the Cowboys’ backfield, with Jaydon Blue a healthy scratch the last few weeks, even with Miles Sanders on IR and done for the year. He took 22 and 20 carries against the Raiders and Eagles in those two games, and he rushed for 93 and 87 yards, respectively.
Williams has at least 75 rushing yards in eight of his last 10 games and has found the end zone nine times this season. If he gets into the end zone again in this matchup, he’ll probably end up being an outstanding value.
With so much work, he brings a high floor, but his touchdown potential also gives him a high ceiling. The other options around his price point are all high-risk due to a lack of consistent workload, but that isn’t a concern with Williams, given the lack of other options in Dallas’s backfield.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Green Bay Packers – $7,800 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Last week, St. Brown and the Lions bounced back at home against the Giants after a disappointing outing on Sunday Night Football against the Eagles. The projections love St. Brown to post another monster game on Turkey Day with the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection on both sites and also the highest Plus/Minus projection on both sites.
With similar projections last week against the Giants, St. Brown went off last week for nine catches for 149 yards and a touchdown. He’s averaging 103.4 yards with seven touchdowns in his five home games, producing 28.1 DraftKings points per contest when playing at Ford Field this season.
He is always a focus of the passing game and gets plenty of targets. He has at least 10 targets in five of his last six games and is averaging 6.8 catches on 9.7 targets per game through 11 games this season.
While the Packers have been decent against receivers, St. Brown should still get enough workload to overcome the matchup, especially with Sam LaPorta done for the season and Jameson Williams putting up inconsistent numbers. St. Brown is clearly the go-to primary option, and with so many targets, he has lots of upside Thursday.
Top Value: Mitchell Tinsley at Baltimore Ravens – $3,500 on DraftKings, $4,100 on FanDuel
Value receivers are a little tricky to pinpoint with so many big names on the slate expected to get most of the work. If you’re looking for a real low-cost option with upside, though, check out Tinsley of the Bengals, who has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all receiver options under $7,000 on FanDuel and under $4,500 on DraftKings.
Tinsley caught two of his six targets last week for 29 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots. That was while working with Joe Flacco, though, and Joe Burrow is expected to be back under center this week for the Bengals.
While the Bengals will also get Ja’Marr Chase back from his suspension, they’ll be without Tee Higgins (concussion). Andrei Iosivas is another good option to consider, but Tinsley brings more big-play upside with his ability to go up and make athletic contested catches.
Tinsley is a higher risk than Iosivas but comes cheaper and brings good GPP upside if you are looking for a low-cost way to fill in your receiver slots.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Dallas Cowboys – $5,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
Kelce has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in the aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. While he had a quiet game last week against the Colts, he has continued to be one of Patrick Mahomes’ go-to options and makes a good stack with his QB for Thanksgiving.
Kelce has at least four catches in nine of his last 10 contests, and he has gotten an average of 6.3 targets per game over his last seven games. During that span, he has posted 13.5 DraftKings points per game.
Like with ARSB and Javonte Williams, his consistent volume gives him a high floor, and it also gives him a chance to post a monster game if he gets into the end zone. He has four touchdowns on the season, and Mahomes will likely look to get him another score as the two celebrate Thanksgiving.
Top Value: Mark Andrews vs. CIN – $3,600 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel
In the aggregate projections on both sites, Andrews has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at tight end. He has been very involved for the Ravens since Lamar Jackson’s return from injury and remains the team’s go-to red zone option.
Andrews had some down weeks early in the season while working with other quarterbacks, but he exceeded salary-based expectations and posted double-digit DraftKings points in three straight weeks after Lamar’s return, scoring three touchdowns in three games before a quiet week last week against the Jets.
Before last week’s clunker, Andrews had multiple catches in eight straight games dating back to Week 3. He leads the team with a 27% red-zone share and 33% of end-zone looks, and he gets an amazing Thanksgiving Day matchup against the Bengals, who have been the best matchup for tight ends in the entire NFL this season. Opposing tight ends have found the end zone 13 times in 11 games and have posted an average of 87.5 yards per contest against the Bengals. Andrews has also had success against Cincinnati recently, scoring four touchdowns in their last six meetings and averaging 67.5 yards per game over that stretch. He’s a great value way to attack tight end and still get a very high ceiling to go with your pie and coffee at the end of the day.
Pictured: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Photo Credit: Imagn
