Using our Stacking tool found within our Player Models, this piece identifies some of the top stacks of the weekend. Check out our Correlations page as well to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
I’m doing this piece a bit different this week. Since we only have two games, you’re going to have to have decent exposure to both in order to set a lineup, so I will be dishing out my favorite stack from each in the form of a game stack. That’s one quarterback and two skill players from each team in a given game.
Doing this will help you to capture the upside necessary to take down guaranteed prize pools this weekend. I’ll also include the average salary remaining with each stack, so you can see just what you have to work with for the rest of your lineup.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Wide Receiver + Opposing Running Back + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Jared Goff: $5,400 DraftKings; $8,000 FanDuel
- Robert Woods: $5,700 DraftKings; $7,100 FanDuel
- Brandin Cooks: $5,300 DraftKings; $6,900 FanDuel
- Alvin Kamara: $6,500 DraftKings; $8,100 FanDuel
- Ted Ginn: $4,300 DraftKings; $5,300 FanDuel
- Average Salary Remaining: $5,700 DraftKings; $6,150 FanDuel
The first time these two teams faced off, it was a 45-35 shootout that was one of the best games of the season. The Saints won that initial meeting, but should not be the assumed winner of the rematch. And no matter who moves on to the Super Bowl, this game should feature plenty of points.
Since 2007, playoff games in a dome have averaged about a full touchdown more than games played outdoors. Saints’ home games in particular have averaged 55 total points over the past two seasons and has been dubbed the Coors Field of fantasy football.
The Saints have the worst remaining pass defense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA at 22nd, but are tremendous at defending the run, ranking third in rush DVOA. Not only is it more likely that the Rams attack the Saints through the passing game, the current split of carries between Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson makes it difficult to trust either in fantasy.
Woods and Cooks have been the clear preferred targets in the Rams’ offense since losing Cooper Kupp. They own Weighted Opportunity Ratings of at least 0.50, and the only other player on the team with a WOPR over 0.30 is Josh Reynolds. In their recent playoff win against Dallas, the pair combined for 14 of 25 targets, good for 56%.
Kamara is at his lowest DraftKings price since November of last season. His touch volume has suffered since the return of Mark Ingram, but Kamara is still the lead back in New Orleans. Since Week 5, he’s just seven more carries than Ingram (154 to 147), but Kamara has 33 more targets (62 to 29). The Rams can be run on, ranking 28th in rush DVOA, and the Saints have just three more passes than rushes in that time-frame. Over the first four weeks, they were 64% pass.
No matter how much the Saints end up passing, Ginn should be involved. He has at least seven targets in each of his first two games back from injured reserve, and 242 total air yards. He’s a big-play threat who missed out on having a huge game last week when Brees under-threw him on a deep pattern.
Quarterback + Running Back + Wide Receiver + Opposing Running Back + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Tom Brady: $5,800 DraftKings; $8,400 FanDuel
- James White: $5,400 DraftKings; $7,700 FanDuel
- Julian Edelman: $6,600 DraftKings; $7,900 FanDuel
- Damien Williams: $6,400 DraftKings; $7,200 FanDuel
- Sammy Watkins: $4,000 DraftKings; $5,600 FanDuel
- Average Salary Remaining: $5,450 DraftKings; $5,800 FanDuel
The AFC Championship is expected to be played in temps ranging from 22 degrees at kickoff to high teens as the game goes on. Since 2014, Brady has played in nine games with freezing temperatures. He’s exceeded 20 DraftKings points four times. Mahomes, meanwhile, has played in just three, scoring fewer than 20 points in all of them. Mahomes also played his college football in warm weather at Texas Tech.
Especially for the difference in price, the experience in these conditions gives the edge to Brady when I’m choosing a signal-caller for this game.
The Chiefs have struggled to defend running backs all season. They’re historically bad in run defense and allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs during the regular season. Given the weather, Sony Michel will definitely be in play, but he’s coming off of a monster game and does not correlate as well with Brady given Michel’s lack of a role in the passing game.
White, meanwhile, recorded 17 targets in the Patriots’ playoff win over the Chargers after capturing 22% of team targets during the regular season. He and Edelman, who saw 13 targets of his own last week, are the clear focal point in this passing attack.
Spencer Ware could return this week from his hamstring injury, but Williams has been so good that it could only marginally impact his workload. Williams has at least 29 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. Watkins also appears to be massively underpriced. In his first full game back since injuring his foot, the former Bill played on 93% of the snaps and saw 19.5% of the targets. He’s $3,000 cheaper than Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce on DraftKings, and $1,800 less than the cheaper Kelce on FanDuel.
Be sure to check out our industry-leading NFL News and Models, along with our Multi-Lineup Builder, Stack builder, ownership projections and more. Also, make sure to check out our other tools for the 2018 season, including the Matchups page, DFS Contests Dashboard, NFL Ownership page, and NFL Correlations page.
Pictured above: Robert Woods, Jared Goff
Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports