Sleeper Fantasy Picks for the NFL Conference Championships

Well, 32 teams have been whittled down to four, and only two will be left standing after Sunday’s Conference Championships. There’s no shortage of intrigue in this year’s matchups. First, the seemingly unstoppable Washington Commanders travel to the City of Brotherly Love for a crucial tilt versus the Philadelphia Eagles. Subsequently, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills will finally try and shake the monkey off their back and get past the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC finale. Wherever your rooting interests lie, we’ve got Sleeper plays for every team in what will undoubtedly be an entertaining Sunday.

This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1.

Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Commanders vs. Eagles & Bills vs. Chiefs

Saquon Barkley Less 147.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

The Philadelphia Eagles would not be in the NFC Championship Game without Saquon Barkley. Their All-Pro running back has been a staple of their offensive attack this season, getting better as the season progressed. Still, he appears to be overheating and at risk of regression, putting his rushing + receiving total just out of reach.

Barkley is coming off a 205-yard rushing performance in the Divisional Round, making it 324 yards in two playoff games. Moreover, he’s eclipsed 119 rushing yards in four straight games, with an average of 27.5 rushing attempts per game. Those benchmarks put him well outside of normal range, implying that we should see immediate correction. Still, there’s a more concerning trend worth taking note of.

Specifically, Barkley’s massive production spike correlates with a sharp increase in big plays. While impressive, it amplifies the concerns related to his impending regression. While Barkley totaled 205 yards on 26 carries last week, 140 of those yards came on just two runs. First, he had a 62-yard jaunt, then he took off for 78 more. If we take those outliers out of his sample, Barkley mustered just 2.7 yards per carry on the 24 other rushing attempts.

Surely, Barkley will still break free, but not like he did against the Los Angeles Rams. That puts him at a deficit relative to his projection. And with only 12 targets over his last six games, he doesn’t possess the passing workload to help him get north of 147.5 rushing + receiving yards on Sunday.

Brian Robinson Jr. Less 48.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

Brian Robinson Jr. appears destined for a similar result as his Eagles counterpart, albeit on a much smaller scale. The Washington Commanders running back has seen eroding metrics in recent weeks and will likely struggle to reach his modest rushing + receiving yards total in Philadelphia.

After bursting out of the gates, Robinson Jr. has been operating at a sub-optimal level in the latter stages of the campaign. Despite maintaining a regular workload, the former third-round pick has fallen below 24 rushing yards in three of his last five games. Across the entire sample, Robinson Jr. is averaging a paltry 3.5 yards per carry and has given way to a more equitable work share with Austin Ekeler. The latter has totaled 74 rushing yards on 14 carries while maintaining his usual spot as the pass-catching running back.

Recent performances suggest that we should see Ekeler maintain his increased workload against the Eagles. With Robinson Jr. being a virtual non-factor in the passing attack, the chances of him reaching 48.5 rushing + receiving yards are negligible. Our projections reveal a decided edge in Robinson Jr. coming up short of that total.

Josh Allen Less 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns

Josh Allen has put the Buffalo Bills on his back this season, almost single-handedly dragging them to the AFC Championship Game. As impressive as he’s been, there’s still a limitation to what Allen can deliver. In that regard, we see him coming up short of his rushing touchdown projection against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Touchdowns have come in bunches for Allen this season. The MVP contender has four multi-score games in 2024, with three of those coming over the last seven weeks. However, that sudden surge reveals the unstable nature of his scoring abilities. Allen totaled just three touchdowns through the first nine weeks of the season before going on a haul over the latter half of the campaign. Given his current workload and the Chiefs’ typically stout defense, we’re forecasting regression in the AFC Championship Game and beyond.

Allen is running less and getting fewer yards when he does take off. Not including his Week 18 “start,” the Bills quarterback has totaled 113 yards on 29 carries over his past four games. Further, he’s totaled more than eight carries and 30 yards in just one game and has averaged just 3.9 yards per carry. More relevantly, he’s recorded touchdowns in two of those four games.

The Chiefs typically stack up well against the run. The Houston Texans may have taken some liberties last week, but Kansas City still finished the regular season with the eighth-ranked rushing defense. They can rely on their elite defensive front, with the Chiefs expected to keep Josh Allen out of the end zone.

Harrison Butker Less 7.5 Kicking Points

While the Chiefs have earned a reputation for being one of the most dynamic offenses in the league, that hasn’t really been the case this season. KC ranked in the bottom half of the league in total offense, mustering 327.6 yards per game. Predictably, that correlated with diminished output, with the Chiefs averaging 22.6 points per game. The AFC West winners were completely outmatched in their Divisional Round matchup, suggesting that another flat performance could be on deck against the Bills. With that, Harrison Butker is projected to come up short of 7.5 kicking points at Arrowhead Stadium.

Kansas City couldn’t get anything going against the Houston Texans. The Chiefs totaled just 212 yards of total offense, spending limited time in plus-territory. Despite those disadvantages, they still managed to put up 23 points and escape with the win. Still, another lackluster performance could be on tap against the Bills’ ferocious defensive front.

Ineffective offensive play will make it too hard for Butker to eclipse his point total. The Chiefs’ kicker has attempted only eight field goals and 11 point-after attempts over the last five games, missing kicks in three of those games. Altogether, Butker has totaled 28 points over the five-game sample, equaling just 5.6 points per game.

The Chiefs are coming off a dismal performance, and a sudden offensive surge isn’t expected against the Bills. Combined with his recent accuracy issues, that puts Harrison Butker at a disadvantage in the AFC Championship Game. In the end, we predict that he’ll come up short of his 7.5-point kicking total.

Well, 32 teams have been whittled down to four, and only two will be left standing after Sunday’s Conference Championships. There’s no shortage of intrigue in this year’s matchups. First, the seemingly unstoppable Washington Commanders travel to the City of Brotherly Love for a crucial tilt versus the Philadelphia Eagles. Subsequently, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills will finally try and shake the monkey off their back and get past the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC finale. Wherever your rooting interests lie, we’ve got Sleeper plays for every team in what will undoubtedly be an entertaining Sunday.

This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1.

Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Commanders vs. Eagles & Bills vs. Chiefs

Saquon Barkley Less 147.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

The Philadelphia Eagles would not be in the NFC Championship Game without Saquon Barkley. Their All-Pro running back has been a staple of their offensive attack this season, getting better as the season progressed. Still, he appears to be overheating and at risk of regression, putting his rushing + receiving total just out of reach.

Barkley is coming off a 205-yard rushing performance in the Divisional Round, making it 324 yards in two playoff games. Moreover, he’s eclipsed 119 rushing yards in four straight games, with an average of 27.5 rushing attempts per game. Those benchmarks put him well outside of normal range, implying that we should see immediate correction. Still, there’s a more concerning trend worth taking note of.

Specifically, Barkley’s massive production spike correlates with a sharp increase in big plays. While impressive, it amplifies the concerns related to his impending regression. While Barkley totaled 205 yards on 26 carries last week, 140 of those yards came on just two runs. First, he had a 62-yard jaunt, then he took off for 78 more. If we take those outliers out of his sample, Barkley mustered just 2.7 yards per carry on the 24 other rushing attempts.

Surely, Barkley will still break free, but not like he did against the Los Angeles Rams. That puts him at a deficit relative to his projection. And with only 12 targets over his last six games, he doesn’t possess the passing workload to help him get north of 147.5 rushing + receiving yards on Sunday.

Brian Robinson Jr. Less 48.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

Brian Robinson Jr. appears destined for a similar result as his Eagles counterpart, albeit on a much smaller scale. The Washington Commanders running back has seen eroding metrics in recent weeks and will likely struggle to reach his modest rushing + receiving yards total in Philadelphia.

After bursting out of the gates, Robinson Jr. has been operating at a sub-optimal level in the latter stages of the campaign. Despite maintaining a regular workload, the former third-round pick has fallen below 24 rushing yards in three of his last five games. Across the entire sample, Robinson Jr. is averaging a paltry 3.5 yards per carry and has given way to a more equitable work share with Austin Ekeler. The latter has totaled 74 rushing yards on 14 carries while maintaining his usual spot as the pass-catching running back.

Recent performances suggest that we should see Ekeler maintain his increased workload against the Eagles. With Robinson Jr. being a virtual non-factor in the passing attack, the chances of him reaching 48.5 rushing + receiving yards are negligible. Our projections reveal a decided edge in Robinson Jr. coming up short of that total.

Josh Allen Less 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns

Josh Allen has put the Buffalo Bills on his back this season, almost single-handedly dragging them to the AFC Championship Game. As impressive as he’s been, there’s still a limitation to what Allen can deliver. In that regard, we see him coming up short of his rushing touchdown projection against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Touchdowns have come in bunches for Allen this season. The MVP contender has four multi-score games in 2024, with three of those coming over the last seven weeks. However, that sudden surge reveals the unstable nature of his scoring abilities. Allen totaled just three touchdowns through the first nine weeks of the season before going on a haul over the latter half of the campaign. Given his current workload and the Chiefs’ typically stout defense, we’re forecasting regression in the AFC Championship Game and beyond.

Allen is running less and getting fewer yards when he does take off. Not including his Week 18 “start,” the Bills quarterback has totaled 113 yards on 29 carries over his past four games. Further, he’s totaled more than eight carries and 30 yards in just one game and has averaged just 3.9 yards per carry. More relevantly, he’s recorded touchdowns in two of those four games.

The Chiefs typically stack up well against the run. The Houston Texans may have taken some liberties last week, but Kansas City still finished the regular season with the eighth-ranked rushing defense. They can rely on their elite defensive front, with the Chiefs expected to keep Josh Allen out of the end zone.

Harrison Butker Less 7.5 Kicking Points

While the Chiefs have earned a reputation for being one of the most dynamic offenses in the league, that hasn’t really been the case this season. KC ranked in the bottom half of the league in total offense, mustering 327.6 yards per game. Predictably, that correlated with diminished output, with the Chiefs averaging 22.6 points per game. The AFC West winners were completely outmatched in their Divisional Round matchup, suggesting that another flat performance could be on deck against the Bills. With that, Harrison Butker is projected to come up short of 7.5 kicking points at Arrowhead Stadium.

Kansas City couldn’t get anything going against the Houston Texans. The Chiefs totaled just 212 yards of total offense, spending limited time in plus-territory. Despite those disadvantages, they still managed to put up 23 points and escape with the win. Still, another lackluster performance could be on tap against the Bills’ ferocious defensive front.

Ineffective offensive play will make it too hard for Butker to eclipse his point total. The Chiefs’ kicker has attempted only eight field goals and 11 point-after attempts over the last five games, missing kicks in three of those games. Altogether, Butker has totaled 28 points over the five-game sample, equaling just 5.6 points per game.

The Chiefs are coming off a dismal performance, and a sudden offensive surge isn’t expected against the Bills. Combined with his recent accuracy issues, that puts Harrison Butker at a disadvantage in the AFC Championship Game. In the end, we predict that he’ll come up short of his 7.5-point kicking total.

About the Author

Born and raised in the barren ground of Canada, Grant White was nurtured by sports growing up. He spent years honing his betting craft before being joining FantasyLabs and Action Network in 2021. With a keen eye for value, Grant sets his sights on any perceived imbalance for a long-term winning edge.