NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown for Packers vs. Lions – Thanksgiving Day (11/27)

NFL Week 13 gets underway with a trio of NFL contests on Thanksgiving. Things get underway with an NFC North showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions at 1 p.m. ET. The Lions are listed as 2.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 48.5.

These are two of the best teams in the NFC on paper, but both teams are right on the edge of the playoff picture. The Packers are currently in sixth place at 7-3-1, while the Lions are in eighth at 7-4. The Packers won the first head-to-head matchup between these squads, so a loss would put the Lions behind the eight ball. However, a win would propel the Lions ahead of the Packers in the standings, so Green Bay would be the team in a bit of trouble.

Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Packers vs. Lions

NFL DFS Stud Picks

While the Packers have the better record, it’s the Lions who stand out as the superior offensive team. They’re second in the league in points per game and fourth in yardage, so they unsurprisingly have the edge in DFS pricing. That includes two of the top studs in fantasy. Jahmyr Gibbs ranks third at running back in terms of PPR points per game, while Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks fifth among receivers.

Let’s start with Gibbs. He’s coming off a monster performance last week vs. the Giants, racking up 219 rushing yards and two touchdowns with 11 catches, 45 yards, and an additional score through the air. He finished with a massive 58.4 DraftKings points, which is the second-highest mark from a running back in our Trends database. Only Alvin Kamara’s six-touchdown performance on Christmas in 2020 ranks higher.

Gibbs is not a true bell-cow back, with David Montgomery also getting a solid piece of the backfield work. However, his lead over Montgomery appears to be growing. He has just a 54% carry share for the year, but he’s been at 63% and 75% over the past two weeks. With the Lions fighting for their playoff lives, getting the ball in the hands of their best player has become a clear priority.

Even if Gibbs sees a slight step back volume-wise, he could still make up for it with his elite efficiency. Gibbs is a fantastic pass-catcher out of the backfield, and he has the fourth-highest target share at the position (17%).  He’s also averaged an elite 6.1 yards per carry this season, and he needed just 15 carries to torch the Giants for 200+ yards last week.

Of course, the Packers are not the Giants defensively. New York is dead last in rush defense EPA, while the Packers are a much more respectable 12th. They’ve also allowed the ninth-fewest PPR points per game to the position. They did an excellent job in their first matchup vs. Gibbs, limiting him to nine carries for 19 yards on the ground and 10 receptions for 31 yards.

Still, there isn’t much cause for concern. Gibbs has the highest optimal Captain rate in Sim Labs, and he’s projected for significantly less ownership than St. Brown. No player has a larger gap at Captain in projected ownership and optimal lineup rate, so Gibbs stands out as an elite target in that slot.

St. Brown may not have the same eye-popping upside as Gibbs, but he’s arguably the better pure value. He’s $1,000 cheaper in the flex spot, but he actually owns a slight edge in median projection. That gives him the clear edge in terms of projected Plus/Minus.

St. Brown has seen a clear uptick in target share this season. He’s garnered 32% of the team’s targets, which represents a sizable increase from his 27% mark last year. He’s had double-digit opportunities in five of his past six games, with a blowout win vs. the Commanders standing out as the lone exception. St. Brown has had at least 16.8 DraftKings points in four of his past five outings, with a 12-target, two-catch performance vs. a tough Eagles’ defense as his only true bust.

Like with Gibbs, the Packers did a brilliant job of slowing down St. Brown in their first meeting. They limited him to a season-low 16% target share, and he finished with just four catches for 45 yards.

However, the Packers defense has shown some clear signs of regression since then. They’re merely 16th in pass defense EPA for the year, so they’re not nearly the juggernaut they appeared to be early in the season. St. Brown has had a target share of at least 31% in all but one game since facing the Packers, so he’s poised for a much better showing this time around. He ultimately leads the entire slate in projected Plus/Minus.

St. Brown will be catching passes from Jared Goff, who has had a mediocre season by his standards. He’s 15th at the position in terms of fantasy points per game, but he’s lacked the upside he’s displayed in previous years. He has just three finishes inside the top 10 at quarterback this season, and one of those just barely qualifies (QB9 vs. the Giants last week). The Packers have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, so it’s hard to get too excited about his prospects on Thanksgiving.

The good news is that this game will be taking place in a situation where Goff has historically thrived. Since joining the Lions, he’s played 11 divisional games as a home favorite, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.21. That includes a Plus/Minus of +3.27 against the Packers specifically, including 23.02 DraftKings points in their matchup in Detroit last season.

Ultimately, Goff and St. Brown make a ton of sense when used together. They have a correlation of +0.63, which is excellent even for a QB and their top pass-catcher. Conversely, Goff has a negative correlation with Gibbs, so he’s best deployed in lineups that are fading the Lions’ star RB.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

Josh Jacobs will be a big x-factor on this slate. He missed last week’s contest vs. the Vikings, and he’s questionable to suit up on Thanksgiving. He is tentatively expected to return in a must-win game, but there’s no guarantee he handles as large a workload as usual.

When Jacobs is fully healthy, he’s a true workhorse for the Packers. He handled 71% of the rushing attempts through the first 10 weeks this season, and he’s a massive threat from around the goal line. He’s second in the league in rushing touchdowns, and only Jonathan Taylor has more opportunities from inside the five-yard line. Jacobs also has a respectable 13% target share for the year, so he’s a threat in all of the most important areas for fantasy scoring.

Jacobs’ price tag has also come down significantly. He’s currently priced at just $9,800, but he was $11,800 the last time he took the field. He doesn’t grade out particularly well in our NFL Models, but he has some clear buy-low potential at that figure. He’s a high-risk, high-reward type of option.

Quarterbacks always have some appeal in the single-game format. That said, Jordan Love hasn’t been a particularly strong fantasy target for most of the season. He’s merely 22nd at the position in fantasy points per game, and he’s scored 10.02 DraftKings points or fewer in three of his past four games.

The big selling point for Love this week is the matchup. The Lions have been pretty stout against the run, forcing opponents to air it out. As a result, they’ve allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Love has a +3.2 Opponent Plus/Minus in this matchup, which is the top mark on the slate.

Like Jacobs, Love also stands out as an interesting buy-low target. He’s down to just $9,600, which is tied for his lowest figure of the season. He’s been at $10,000 or higher in 10 straight games.

Emanuel Wilson thrived as the Packers’ starting RB last week, tallying 107 rushing yards and two touchdowns in 28 carries. That said, it’s hard to imagine that type of volume for Wilson vs. the Lions, even if Jacobs is surprisingly ruled out. The Packers were in completely control vs. the Vikings last week, while they’re listed as slightly underdogs vs. the Lions. Detroit has also surrendered the second-fewest PPR points per game to the position. He’s way too expensive if Jacobs does come back, and he’s not particularly appealing even if Jacobs gets ruled out.

Jameson Williams had the same amount of fantasy points as you and I did last week. Well, at least I’m assuming. It’s possible that you’re reading this as an NFL player, in which case, you may have outscored Williams. He failed to catch any of his three targets, resulting in his second goose egg in the past five weeks.

That is Williams’ nature. Most of his targets come way downfield, making him the prototypical “boom or bust” receiver. In between Williams’ two donuts, he finished with 19.7, 26.9, and 16.6 DraftKings points.

On paper, Williams at least has the potential to be a bit more consistent moving forward. The team is currently playing without Sam LaPorta, which opens up a few additional targets per game. Those didn’t head Williams’ way last week, but that could change vs. the Packers. He’s another player who has seen a significant price reduction heading into this matchup, making him an excellent bounce-back option.

Deciphering the Packers’ passing attack will be one of the keys on this slate. They have one of the deepest groups of pass-catchers in football, even after losing Tucker Kraft to a season-ending injury.

Romeo Doubs has been the Packers’ top receiving threat this season. He leads the group with a 22% target share, while no other player is above 17%. However, his role has been extremely inconsistent of late. He has two games with at least 29% of the targets in his past five, and he’s been at 18%, 13%, and 10% in the other three.

Still, he stands out as the “safest” option in this group. That’s particularly true on FanDuel, where his $7,000 salary comes with a 93% Bargain Rating.

Christian Watson is the team’s big-play threat. His Average Depth of Target (aDOT) checks in at a whopping 19.8 yards, and his role has been on the rise in recent weeks. He’s posted a route participation of 80% or higher in three straight games, and he’s had a 29% target share over his past two. If that trend continues, he could be the team’s clear No. 1 option. He ultimately has slightly lower projections than Doubs, but his ceiling is arguably higher. He’s also projected for less ownership.

Montgomery rounds out this price range, and he was a solid RB2 for fantasy purposes last year. Unfortunately, he hasn’t had the same level of opportunities of late, and he’s been far less likely to score a touchdown. He had 25 touchdowns in 28 regular-season games with the Lions over the past two years, but he has just five scores in 11 outings so far this season.

It’s possible that the Lions try to get Montgomery going a bit more in this contest. It’s something they’ve talked about all season, but they’ve been unable to do it in recent weeks. He could see a few more opportunities vs. the Packers, but his value will ultimately hinge on whether or not he finds the paint.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. Jake Bates stands out as the clear best option using our projections, while Brandon McManus has the biggest gap between projected ownership and optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs.
• Matthew Golden ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) – Golden has been in and out of the lineup recently, missing two of the team’s past three games. He’s practiced on a limited capacity so far this week, so it’s possible he returns vs. the Lions. Unfortunately, he’s struggled to make an impact for most of the season, and he had just a 37% route participation in his last outing.
• Dontayvion Wicks ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) – If Golden is out, Wicks should serve as the Packers’ No. 3 receiver. It’s possible he fills that void regardless, but Wicks had an 80% route participation and 20% target share sans Golden in Week 12. He’s arguably the best value among the Packers’ receivers.
• Brock Wright ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Wright suffered a neck injury last week, and he’s been unable to practice so far in Week 13. That makes his status very shaky heading into this contest. If he is ruled out, Ross Dwelley ($200) and Anthony Firkser ($200) would presumably handle the TE responsibilities. Both guys would be very interesting punt plays in that scenario.
• Luke Musgrave ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) – Musgrave is the Packers’ starting TE, and there was some optimism he could help fill Kraft’s shoes at the position. Unfortunately, that has been far from the case. His route participation has plummeted to less than 35% over the past two weeks, so he’s struggled to get and stay on the field. He’s still earned multiple targets in both contests, but expectations were clearly too high following Kraft’s injury.
• Kalif Raymond ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) – With LaPorta out and Wright questionable, the Lions could use significantly more three- and four-receiver sets vs. the Packers. We saw a bit of that last week, though Raymond wasn’t the biggest beneficiary from a snap standpoint. However, he caught two passes for 37 yards, so he has some appeal at a cheap price tag.
• Isaac TeSlaa ($2,000 DraftKings, $1,800 FanDuel) – TeSlaa is arguably the more appealing value receiver to target in Detroit. While he failed to earn a single target last week, his route participation was above 50%. He could see a few opportunities against Green Bay.
• John FitzPatrick ($1,600 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) – With Musgrave struggling, it’s opened the door for some of the other TEs in Green Bay. That includes FitzPatrick. He’s had more routes than Musgrave in each of the past two weeks, though he’s posted just a 5% target share in both contests.
• Savion Williams ($1,000 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) – Williams is a depth receiver for Green Bay, but he could see some opportunities if Golden is unable to go. That said, he’s posted a 7% and 4% route participation in back-to-back weeks, so it’s also possible he simply doesn’t get on the field.
• Josh Whyle ($600 DraftKings, $1,600 FanDuel) – Another depth TE for Green Bay. He’s been the team’s clear No. 3 TE in routes over the past two weeks, but he did score a TD two weeks ago.

Pictured: Jared Goff
Photo Credit: Imagn