NFL Week 11 gets underway with an AFC East Showdown. Unfortunately, the game between the New York Jets and New England Patriots isn’t the most exciting on paper. The Patriots are listed as 12.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 43.5 points.
The Patriots are in the midst of a breakout season. They’re currently tied for the best record in the AFC at 8-2, and they’re riding a seven-game win streak. They rank in the top 10 in both yards and points per game on offense and defense, and they’ve become the favorites to snap the Bills’ long reign of AFC East crowns. They haven’t really been tested, beating up on a string of cupcake opponents, but that’s not going to change on Thursday.
As good as things have gone for the Patriots, they’ve gone that bad for the Jets. They lost each of their first seven games this season, and they traded their two best defensive players before the deadline. Their offense has oscillated between “bad” and “disaster,” so the team is clearly playing for the future at this point. Unfortunately, they can’t even do that properly. They’ve won two straight games, dropping them from the No. 1 spot in the 2026 NFL Draft down to No. 5. There’s still plenty of season left, but the Jets need to maximize their potential to land a future franchise quarterback this offseason.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Thursday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
For a game with a mediocre total, there’s a decent bit of high-end talent to consider. For the Patriots, that starts with Drake Maye. Maye has ascended into stardom in his second professional season, especially for fantasy purposes. He combines excellent athleticism with good passing numbers, and he’s fourth at the position in terms of fantasy points per game. Only Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen have averaged more fantasy points per game at quarterback this season, which is pretty elite company.
Maye has also been an extremely reliable producer. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but one outing on DraftKings, including in five straight games. His production has dipped slightly over his past two contests, but he’s still managed 18.36 and 19.1 DraftKings points in those contests. Before that, he had scored 21.22 DraftKings points six times in a seven-game span.
Maye has plenty of appeal Thursday vs. the Jets. New York completely gutted their defense at the deadline, trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. They haven’t been particularly good even with those players this season, ranking 26th in pass defense EPA. They’ve also allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.
Maye has the clear top projections in our NFL Models, including the top ceiling projection by nearly 10 full points. He’s showing up more than 90% of the time in the Sim Labs optimal lineups between the Captain and Flex spots.
TreVeyon Henderson has also moved into stud territory for this matchup. He’s been a massive disappointment for most of the year, toiling behind Rhamondre Stevenson on the team’s depth chart. Through the first nine weeks, Henderson handled just 37% of the snaps and 33% of the team’s designed rushing attempts.
However, with Stevenson out of the lineup last week, Henderson got his opportunity to shine. He played on 83% of the team’s offensive snaps, and he handled 64% of the carries. With an expanded workload, Stevenson finally got the opportunity to put his home-run-hitting ability on display. He logged two touchdown runs of 50+ yards, and he finished with 31.0 DraftKings points on just 14 carries and one target. He ultimately became the first player in franchise history with two touchdown runs of at least 50 yards in the same game.
Henderson’s workload was buoyed by the fact that Terrell Jennings exited the game early due to an injury. He exited in the first quarter after just four carries, and Henderson saw nearly all the snaps at the position after he departed. Jennings is expected to suit up on Thursday Night Football, so that does put a slight damper on Henderson’s stock.
Still, there’s no denying the rookie’s talent, and he has the potential for a monster performance vs. the Jets. The Patriots are double-digit home favorites, and RBs tend to smash in those spots. Henderson is showing up in the optimal Captain simulations 16.5% of the time, which is the top mark on the slate.
Breece Hall is the Jets’ lone stud, and he can’t be thrilled that he also wasn’t traded before the deadline. The team reportedly turned down a fourth-round pick for him, and the Chiefs were unwilling to meet the Jets’ third-round asking price. It doesn’t get much worse than dreaming of playing with Mahomes in Kansas City, only to wake up and be stuck with the Jets.
The good news is that Hall is coming off his two best games of the year in consecutive outings. He’s finished with 19.5 and 35.86 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, good for a top-seven finish at the position in both outings. He racked up 72% of the team’s carries last week, so he figures to be the team’s featured runner down the stretch.
That said, he has to navigate one of the toughest possible matchups this week. Not only are the Jets massive underdogs, but the Patriots have been extremely stout on the ground this season. Sean Tucker managed to get to 53 rushing yards against them last week, but that’s the top mark by any player against the Pats this season. They’re fourth in the league in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to the position.
The Pats have been a bit weak at defending RBs in the passing game, allowing a league-high 6.1 receptions per game to the position. Hall is a viable option as a receiver, though his 11% target share for the year doesn’t jump off the page. If the Jets don’t get him more involved in that department in this contest, it’s going to be tough for him to return value.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Stefon Diggs has had a really nice campaign for the Patriots this season. They aren’t using him as a full-time player, but when he’s on the field, he’s typically a go-to option for Maye. He’s been targeted on 24% of his routes run, and he had a 25% target share last week. Diggs responded with five catches, 46 yards, and a touchdown, his third straight game with a receiving score.
The Patriots are also currently without Kayshon Boutte, who has been the team’s No. 1 receiver from a snaps standpoint. With him out of the lineup, it opens the door for Diggs to play a bit more than usual. There’s no guarantee that the Patriots need to throw the ball in this game very often, but Diggs has some upside at his current price tag.
We’re still not sure who is going to be the Jets’ starting QB in Week 11. Aaron Glenn has decided to strategically hide that information from his opponents, and while that sounds like a ridiculous strategy, it has led to two straight wins. There’s almost no chance those wins had anything to do with that decision, but don’t tell that to the team’s head coach.
Justin Fields will likely get the nod at the position, but it’s possible that he and Tyrod Taylor both see some action vs. the Patriots. Fields was absolutely dreadful last week vs. the Browns, racking up just 54 passing yards. 42 of those came on one screen pass to Hall, so his other 10 attempts accounted for just five completions and 12 yards.
Of course, Fields also brings some rushing upside to the table, though that hasn’t really been on display of late. He’s rushed for 31 yards or fewer in five straight games, and he’s failed to find the end zone in any of them.
The Patriots have also been pretty good at limiting opposing QBs in the ground game. They’ve allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards to opposing QBs, and Allen is the only quarterback with more than 20 yards against them this season.
Add it all up, and Fields is one of the least appealing QBs we’ve seen all year. He’s shown minimal upside recently, and there’s no guarantee he plays the full game. Quarterbacks will always have some appeal in the single-game format, but Fields carries significant downside.
With Boutte out of the lineup last week, Mack Hollins turned in his biggest game of the year. He was on the field for 83% of the team’s pass plays, and he racked up a massive 36% target share. He responded with 10 targets, six catches, and 106 yards.
His price tag has jumped up pretty aggressively for this matchup, but he still stands out as a strong value. Receivers with the types of metrics that Hollins posted last week are typically priced much closer to the stud tier. He also has one of the top correlations with Maye, increasing his appeal as a stack partner.
DeMario Douglas is a bit more expensive than Hollins, but he was way less involved. He had just a 31% route participation, and he finished with just a 7% target share.
Douglas did post a big game vs. the Falcons two weeks ago – he finished with exactly 100 yards and a touchdown – but he had just a 33% route participation in that outing. He’s ultimately not a huge factor in the team’s passing attack at the moment, and he stands out as one of the worst plays on the slate in terms of projected Plus/Minus.
Hunter Henry rounds out New England’s passing attack, and he’s been a pretty steady producer all year. He’s coming off a down game last week, but he has solid underlying metrics for the year. The Jets have been below-average in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends, so it’s a solid bounce-back spot for Henry. His price tag has also come down significantly: he’s down to $5,400 vs. the Jets after being priced as high as $7,600 earlier this year.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The Patriots Defense is extremely expensive, but they stand out as an excellent option in Sim Labs. They have the fourth-highest optimal lineup rate in the Flex spot, and it exceeds their projected ownership by 5%. However, the kickers stand out as the better targets in terms of projected Plus/Minus.
- Isaiah Davis ($4,200 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) – Davis has seen the majority of the passing-down work for the Jets this season, which could pay dividends in this matchup. The Patriots have struggled to defend running backs in the pass game, and the Jets could be in a trailing game script as massive dogs.
- Mason Taylor ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) – Taylor stands out as one of the best pure values of the day at $4,000 on DraftKings. He has the potential to be the team’s No. 1 option with Garrett Wilson out of the lineup, and he’s had a 22% target share since Week 4. Of course, that only matters if Fields plays better than he did last week.
- Terrell Jennings ($3,600 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) – Jennings was a factor in the Patriots’ RB rotation before exiting last week, and he could get ample opportunities if they build up a lead vs. the Jets.
- Tyler Johnson ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) – The last time that Wilson was out of the lineup, Johnson posted an 84% route participation and 14% target share. He figures to be one of the team’s top options at the position on this slate.
- Adonai Mitchell ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) – Mitchell was part of the return the Jets received from the Colts for Gardner, and he’s an intriguing prospect. He hasn’t really had a chance to breakout with Indianapolis, but he should get a solid look from the Jets down the stretch. He didn’t suit up for the Jets last week, but he should be in the lineup vs. New England. His deep speed makes him an interesting option.
- Kyle Williams ($2,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) – Williams was a third-round pick for the Patriots in 2025, and he’s had the opportunity to play a bit more the past two weeks. He’s had a route participation of at least 50% in both outings, and he scored a long touchdown last week vs. the Bucs.
- Arian Smith ($1,600 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) – Smith has seen a healthy amount of snaps for the Jets this season, including a 93% route participation in Week 7 without Wilson. That said, he’s been targeted on just 5% of his routes run for the year.
- Isaiah Williams ($1,200 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) – Williams might be the best of the Jets cheap-o receivers. He’s had a target share of at least 11% in back-to-back games, and he scored a special teams touchdown last week.
- John Metchie ($1,000 DraftKings, $1,800 FanDuel) – Even with the Jets’ limited at receiver, Metchie hasn’t been much of a factor. He had just a 22% route participation in Week 8, and he was down to 13% last week.
Pictured: Drake Maye
Photo Credit: Imagn
