NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown for Falcons vs. 49ers Sunday Night Football (10/19)

NFL Week 7 features a Sunday Night Football contest with potential playoff implications. The 49ers are currently sitting at 4-2, and they’ll host the 3-2 Falcons. The 49ers are listed as 1.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 47 points.

San Francisco has had dreadful injury luck dating back to the start of last season, and they’ll be missing a host of key contributors once again. That includes starting QB Brock Purdy and wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Ricky Pearsall.

The Falcons are coming off a massive upset win over the Bills last week, though they’re still well behind the Buccaneers in the standings. They’re likely going to be fighting for a Wild Card spot in the NFC, which is a race that could also feature the 49ers. The winner of this contest will get not just a big win, but a key head-to-head tiebreaker.

Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Sunday Night Football.

NFL DFS Stud Picks

This game features two of the best running backs in all of fantasy: Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey. Robinson is currently the No. 1 running back in terms of PPR points per game (24.8), but McCaffrey is right behind him (24.7).

Let’s start with Bijan. Robinson still loses an annoying amount of work to Tyler Allgeier in the run game. Robinson has just a 57% carry share for the year, which is not nearly what you’d expect for a top fantasy running back. It ranks just 23rd at the position, so Robinson hasn’t exactly dominated from a volume standpoint.

However, he makes up for it with elite efficiency. Robinson has averaged 5.8 yards per attempt this season, which is a full yard better than his mark from last year. He was at 8.9 yards per attempt vs. the Bills last week, though much of that stemmed from an 81-yard touchdown scamper.

Robinson is also a fantastic pass catcher out of the backfield. He’s garnered a 20% target share this season, which is the third-best mark at running back. He has at least five targets in each game this season, and he’s responded with an average of 4.8 receptions and 67.6 receiving yards per game. He probably won’t continue to average 14.1 yards per catch all year, as he was at 8.4 and 7.1 the previous two seasons, but his work as a receiver more than makes up for any deficiencies in terms of carry volume.

The matchup vs. the 49ers is an interesting one for Robinson. They’ve been pretty good against the run this season, ranking eighth in rush defense EPA. However, they’re going to be without Fred Warner for this contest, which is a massive blow. He’s PFF’s No. 1 overall linebacker this season, and he has the third-highest grade against the run.

Ultimately, Robinson owns the top median projection in our NFL Models, and he ranks second from a ceiling standpoint. He’s currently expected to be a bit underowned in the Captain spot on DraftKings, with no player owning a bigger gap between projected ownership and optimal lineup rate.

McCaffrey does things a bit differently than Robinson, but he’s been just as effective for fantasy purposes. McCaffrey is the top receiving back in football. He has a 27% target share for the year, which is an astronomical figure for the position. De’Von Achane is second at 22%, and only 10 receivers have posted better figures overall.

That work in the passing game makes McCaffrey one of the most consistent producers in fantasy. He’s scored between 22.7 and 27.9 DraftKings points in all six games, and he’s averaged 10 targets, 7.7 receptions, and 74.0 receiving yards per contest.

The big question is how the return of George Kittle will impact McCaffrey’s receiving role. McCaffrey’s averages over the past two seasons have been significantly lower, so it’s reasonable to expect a bit of a reduction with Kittle typically operating in a similar area.

If that happens, McCaffrey hasn’t had the rushing success to fall back on. He’s averaging just 3.1 yards per carry this season, which is easily his worst mark as a member of the 49ers. He had 5.4 yards per attempt during his Offensive Player of the Year season in 2023, and he still managed 4.0 yards per carry during an injury-plagued 2024.

It makes McCaffrey a bit riskier than you might think, especially against an elite Atlanta defense. They’re fifth in defensive EPA for the year, and they’ve allowed the fewest PPR points per game to opposing RBs. They’ve been particularly good at stopping RBs in the passing game, allowing just 13.8 receiving yards per game to the position.

Drake London is one of the most unheralded alpha receivers in football. He’s posted a 32% target share for the year, and he’s coming off back-to-back monster performances. He’s had target shares of 38% and 50% in his last two contests, and he’s responded with 28.0 and 34.8 DraftKings points. London has been a top-five scorer at the position in both contests, including a No. 2 overall finish last week vs. the Bills.

London has a chance for another standout performance vs. San Francisco. Their defense has struggled against the pass this season, ranking merely 24th in pass defense EPA. His production is going to be heavily tied to how Michael Penix fares, as the two players have a +0.72 correlation, but as long as Penix isn’t a disaster, London feels underpriced.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

Speaking of Penix, he has been below average as a fantasy producer so far this season. He’s 30th at the position in terms of fantasy points per game, though that stems primarily from two dismal performances. He had games of 5.78 and 5.30 DraftKings points vs. the Panthers and Vikings, respectively, who have both been solid against the pass.

However, both of those games have also come on the road, which makes his outlook vs. the 49ers a bit concerning. Penix has had drastic home/road splits to start his career, averaging 19.54 DraftKings points in five home starts and 7.77 when playing elsewhere (per the Trends tool). He’s yet to score more than 12.22 DraftKings points outside of Atlanta, and while it’s a small sample, he carries some risk in this spot.

Ultimately, Penix has a wide range of outcomes vs. the 49ers. He still has plenty of appeal in a solid matchup, but there’s some disaster potential here as well.

Mac Jones is the other quarterback in this matchup. He’s fared well when asked to fill in for Purdy this season, averaging 19.6 DraftKings points in his four starts. He’s thrown the ball at least 39 times in each outing, so the team has had plenty of confidence in letting him air it out.

This will be Jones’ toughest test of the early season. The Falcons are fifth in pass defense EPA, and that might be underselling how good they’ve been. They’ve allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position, and opposing QBs have averaged just 156.4 passing yards against them. That’s the top mark in the league by a pretty wide margin.

Still, QBs always have appeal in the single-game format, and Jones is a very tough fade on this slate. He’s popping in the optimal lineup greater than 70% of the time in the FLEX spot in Sim Labs, and with his elite volume, he’s tough to avoid at a sub-$10k price tag.

How the targets are distributed in San Francisco will be a big factor this week. In addition to McCaffrey, the team has three other guys with meaningful price tags: Kendrick Bourne, Jauan Jennings, and Kittle.

Bourne is the priciest of the group, and he’s put together back-to-back games as the team’s clear No. 1 receiver. He had a 25% target share two weeks ago, and he was at 24% last week. He’s finished with exactly 142 receiving yards in each contest, and he has 20 total targets over that time frame.

Jennings returned to the lineup last week after missing the previous game, though he wasn’t much of a factor. He is still reportedly dealing with a bunch of injuries, with Jennings telling reporters he’s playing through five broken ribs and both high- and low-ankle sprains. Jennings was essentially just a decoy last week, posting a 79% route participation but just an 8% target share.

The good news is there’s a chance that Jennings is more involved in Week 7. He was able to get in a full practice on Friday, and he was officially removed from the team’s injury report. That’s a clear upgrade over what he did heading into Week 6.

Both receivers ultimately have similar projections, but with a cheaper price tag, Jennings edges out Bourne in terms of projected Plus/Minus. Jennings is an even stronger option on FanDuel, where his $6,000 salary comes with a slate-high 96% Bargain Rating.

Kittle will suit up for the first time since Week 1, and he has the potential to be the team’s overall top pass catcher. He was targeted on 31% of his routes run before getting injured in Week 1, and he’s still one of the best players in football at his position. Jake Tonges has scored double-digit DraftKings points in three straight games, so it’s tantalizing to think what Kittle can do in that role.

The only real question is just how healthy Kittle is. The reports are promising, with head coach Kyle Shanahan telling reporters that Kittle is at 100% and won’t be on a pitch count. As long as that’s really the case, Kittle has the inside track to being the team’s leading receiver.

Part of the reason for London’s recent explosion has been Darnell Mooney’s injury. He was limited to just 29 snaps two games ago, and he missed the team’s last contest entirely.

Mooney is officially listed as questionable for this contest, but recent reports suggest that he’s likely to play. That said, he still doesn’t look particularly appealing for fantasy purposes. He’s yet to crack double-digit fantasy points this season. He has been targeted on a respectable 20% of his routes run, but the passing attack still figures to flow primarily through London.

Kyle Pitts is having another ho-hum season. He was hyped as the greatest TE prospect ever, but he has simply not lived up to those expectations at the NFL level. Pitts has averaged 4.6 catches and 44.6 receiving yards per game in 2025, and he’s found the end zone one time in five games. That’s good for a TE14 ranking in terms of PPR points per game.

Even with Mooney out of the lineup recently, Pitts hasn’t been able to take a step forward from a target standpoint. His target share is at 18% for the year, and it’s just 15% over his past three games. Pitts is ultimately a high-floor, low-ceiling type of option in this price range.

Finally, Allgeier has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of five games this season, and he’s gotten double-digit carries in four of them. He is the definition of a touchdown-dependent fantasy asset. In the three games he’s scored this season, he’s had 10.8, 11.1, and 15.0 DraftKings points. In the two he hasn’t, he’s had 1.4 and 2.4. That makes him a very risky option at an elevated price tag; he started the year at just $3,000 on DraftKings.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The Falcons D has the best projected Plus/Minus of the group, while Eddy Pineiro has the top optimal lineup rate among the quartet in Sim Labs. All four options stand out as more valuable than usual on a slate without a ton of strong value targets.
• Jake Tonges ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) – Tonges has provided plenty of value with Kittle sidelined, but he will likely fade into obscurity with the star TE back in the lineup. He might still have a role as the team’s No. 2 TE, but he’s not in play until his price comes back down.
• Demarcus Robinson ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) – Robinson had a 90% route participation with Jennings and Pearsall out of the lineup in Week 5, but that figure dipped to 21% with Jennings returning in Week 6. He still managed three targets, but that was good for just an 8% target share.
• Casey Washington ($3,200 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) – Washington saw a big uptick in routes following the injury to Mooney, though that hasn’t resulted in any meaningful production. He could maintain the WR3 role with Ray-Ray McCloud currently away from the team.
• Brian Robinson ($3,000 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) – Robinson has been a more efficient runner than McCaffrey this season, but he has struggled to earn reps. He’s been on the field for just 15% of the team’s offensive plays, while he’s handled just 18% of the designed rushing attempts. He likely needs an injury to McCaffrey to have any real value.
• Kyle Juszczyk ($2,000 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel) – Juszczyk is always a threat for a couple of targets, and he has one receiving touchdown on the season. If he can find the paint vs. Atlanta, he has a good chance of cracking the optimal lineup.

Pictured: Bijan Robinson
Photo Credit: Brett Davis, Imagn