NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown for Dolphins vs. Bills Thursday Night Football (9/18)

NFL Week 3 gets started with a Thursday Night Football showdown between AFC East rivals. The Buffalo Bills will host the Miami Dolphins, with the Bills listed as massive 11.5-point favorites. The good news is that there is expected to be a decent bit of scoring, with the total sitting at 50.5 points.

Buffalo has gotten off to a fantastic start this season, winning a close game vs. the Ravens and blowing out the Jets in Week 2. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders, ranking first in yards per game and second in scoring.

Things have not gone nearly as well for Miami. They’re 0-2 through the first two weeks, though they were a bit more competitive last week vs. the Patriots. Still, it’s hard to envision them pulling off an upset in Buffalo.

Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Thursday Night Football.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here if you want to use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced NFL DFS lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Josh Allen leads the way on this slate, just like he does basically every time the Bills are in action. However, Allen is coming off a subpar showing in his last game. He finished with just 11.82 DraftKings points vs. the Jets, which was his lowest finish in nearly a full calendar year.

Of course, there’s no real reason to worry about the Bills’ star quarterback. He simply wasn’t really needed in that outing, and he attempted just 25 passes with six rush attempts. Each of the Bills’ touchdowns in that contest came on the ground, and Allen simply didn’t get in on the action.

That’s not going to be a regular occurrence. Allen is a touchdown-scoring machine, accounting for more than 40 total scores (rushing + passing) in five consecutive seasons. He had two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns in Week 1 en route to a whopping 41.76 DraftKings points.

That’s the type of upside that Allen brings to the table. He is the top dual-threat quarterback in fantasy, possessing elite upside with his arm and some of the best goal-line rushing numbers in football. He’s had at least 13 rushing scores in back-to-back seasons, so only Jalen Hurts can rival him in that department.

Allen will take the field as a home favorite on Thursday, and he has historically done some of his best work in that split. He’s averaged 25.49 DraftKings points per game in 59 previous occurrences, good for an average Plus/Minus of +1.59 (per the Trends tool).

Allen has the clear top projections on this slate. He leads all players in median and ceiling projection, and he’s also No. 1 in projected Plus/Minus. He’s going to carry massive ownership, but Allen is the clear best play of the slate. It’s hard to imagine building many lineups without him.

De’Von Achane has become one of the clear top running backs in fantasy. When Tua Tagovailoa was healthy last season, Achane was basically unstoppable. He averaged 22.5 PPR points per game in 11 starts with Tua compared to just 8.7 points per game with his quarterback sidelined.

That stems primarily from his work as a pass-catcher. Tua loves to check it down to his running back, and Achane was targeted on 25.4% of his routes with Tagovailoa under center last year. We’ve seen that continue in 2025. His 23% target share ranks second at the position through the first two weeks, trailing only Alvin Kamara.

Achane has also seen plenty of work as a runner to start the year. He’s handled 70% of the team’s designed rushing attempts, while backup Ollie Gordon is at just 13%. We’ve seen the Dolphins employ a committee backfield at times in previous seasons, but it’s been basically all Achane to start the year.

Achane’s pass-catching prowess makes him the rare running back who can still provide value as an underdog. He’s averaged a +3.96 Plus/Minus as an underdog for his career, despite a solid chunk of those games coming with Tua out of the lineup.

Achane saw 10 targets last week vs. the Patriots, and that kind of volume is extremely appealing at the RB position. He doesn’t have nearly the same level of projections as Allen, but he’s still a valuable option on this slate.

A big part of Allen’s struggles last week can be attributed to a big game from James Cook. The two players have a -0.12 correlation, so when one succeeds, it tends to come at the expense of the other. Cook turned 23 carries into 132 yards and two touchdowns, finishing with 29.50 DraftKings points. He had 21.5 DraftKings points in Week 1, and he’s currently the No. 1 running back in football in PPR points per game.

That said, it’s hard to envision that continuing forever. Cook is not exactly a bell-cow from a utilization standpoint. He’s played on just 54% of the team’s offensive snaps this season, and he’s handled just 60% of their rushing attempts. He’s also not exactly a focal point of the passing game, racking up a 9% target share. That makes Cook feel like a prime sell-high candidate.

However, this may not be the spot to do it. The Dolphins have been a disaster defensively to start the year. They’re the worst team in the league in pass defense EPA through the first two weeks, but they’re not much better against the run.

Buffalo is favored by double digits in this matchup, which bodes well for Cook’s rushing outlook. Running backs tend to get fed in games where their team builds a big lead – see last week vs. the Jets – and Cook averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.78 when favored by more than a touchdown last season.

Ultimately, Cook makes for an elite leverage play in lineups where you’re fading Allen. He’s projected for significantly less ownership, and the negative correlation between the two makes him a perfect pivot.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

The Dolphins’ offense has historically been an elite unit with a healthy Tagovailoa, but that has not been the case through the first two weeks. We’ve seen that have a pretty drastic impact on Tyreek Hill.

Hill was considered one of the best receivers in fantasy not that long ago, but his usage has dipped drastically over the past two seasons. He’s at a 21% target share through his first two outings, which is a far cry from the 32% mark he posted in 2023.

The good news is that Hill is still capable of putting together big plays. He’s amassed more than 40% of the Dolphins’ air yards this season, and he had a 47-yard reception last week vs. the Patriots. Tagovailoa also missed him downfield on multiple occasions, but he still has the potential to get behind defenses.

Can he do it vs. the Bills? It’s at least a possibility. They’ve had a depleted secondary to start the year, and cornerback Taron Johnson is questionable for Thursday night. Hill doesn’t grade out particularly well in our projections, but there’s at least some upside here.

Of course, Hill likely won’t hit his ceiling unless his quarterback starts playing better. Tagovailoa has not looked like the same player to start the year. He has historically been fragile, but he has at least produced when he’s been healthy enough to suit up. He led all players with 9.22 adjusted yards per attempt in 2022, and he led the league in passing yards in 2023. That was his only season with a full 17 games played, and he finished as the ninth-highest-scoring QB in fantasy.

His numbers are way down to start the year, including a paltry 6.55 adjusted yards per attempt. He’s already thrown three interceptions, and his 5.5% interception rate is more than double his previous worst mark.

Now, he’ll have to go on the road into a hostile Bills’ stadium. Tagovailoa has always had drastic home/road splits, and he has unsurprisingly struggled in Buffalo. He’s averaged a -2.38 Plus/Minus in that split, and he’s returned positive value in just one of five outings.

Quarterbacks always have some appeal in DFS, and his projections are second only to Allen on this slate. Still, it’s pretty hard to get excited about Tagovailoa in this matchup.

Jaylen Waddle is officially listed as questionable for the Dolphins, but recent reports suggest the team is “optimistic” about his chances to suit up vs. the Bills. He’ll warm up during pregame to test his injured shoulder, but he’s tentatively expected to be out there.

Unfortunately, Waddle is suffering from a lot of the same ailments as Hill. While his target reduction hasn’t been quite as drastic, he still has just an 18% target share through the first two weeks. He also doesn’t have the same big-play potential as Hill to fall back on, racking up just 28% of the team’s air yards.

Ultimately, Waddle is best used in big Dolphins stacks. He has a correlation of +0.69 with Tagovailoa, and he also has solid correlations with Hill (+0.42) and Achane (+0.28). They’re still one of the most highly condensed offenses in football, so when they play well, there’s enough to go around for everyone.

Week 2 represented a massive disappointment for Keon Coleman. He had a breakout showing in Week 1, racking up eight catches for 112 yards and a touchdown, but he saw just three targets last week. 

Still, the Bills had such a low passing volume overall that it’s hard to knock Coleman too much. He was still targeted on 20% of his routes vs. the Jets, and he leads the team in targets per route run for the year.

It’s very possible that he’s going to be Allen’s No. 1 option this season. If that’s the case, he is almost certainly too cheap at $6,800.

On the other hand, it might be time to worry for Khalil Shakir. Shakir was Allen’s top option last season, but that was pretty much by default. The Bills had one of the worst receiving corps in the league, so Shakir was targeted more than expected.

They’re not nearly as thin in 2025, and Shakir’s numbers have suffered. He has just a 13% target share through the first two weeks, and his route participation is at just 75%.

It’s too early to make any sweeping declarations, but it’s possible that Shakir has been overtaken in the pecking order. He’s not a particularly dangerous downfield threat, so he needs to rack up catches to be fantasy viable. That makes him a risky proposition.

Dalton Kincaid also stands out as overpriced. He’s not the Bills’ every-down tight end, which makes it tough for him to provide value. He’s been on the field for just 60% of the team’s passing plays so far this season, which is simply not going to get the job done.

Kincaid did manage to score a touchdown in Week 1, but that’s really all he has going for him at the moment. He needs to find the paint to pay off his current price tag.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. Matt Prater stands out as the best value of the group in our projections, while the Bills’ Defense could be the most undervalued for tournaments. They have the second-largest gap on the slate between projected ownership and optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs. 
• Joshua Palmer ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) – Palmer might be the best pure value in the Bills’ receiving corps. He’s been right behind Coleman from a target standpoint, racking up an 18% target share while being targeted on 20% of his routes run. He’s also been on the field for more than 70% of the team’s pass plays, so he’s a legit part of their passing attack.
• Elijah Moore ($3,600 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) – Moore has also gotten in the mix for Buffalo, though his 4% target share leaves a lot to be desired. The only reason he’s this expensive is that he scored a rushing touchdown last week. It goes without saying that he’s not going to run the ball into the paint very often. He stands out as one of the worst options in terms of projected Plus/Minus.
• Malik Washington ($3,200 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) – Washington has been on the field for roughly 67% of the Dolphins’ pass plays, and he’s amassed an 11% target share. That’s not a huge figure, but it’s not nothing, either.
• Ray Davis ($2,600 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) – Davis is like a long reliever in baseball: he doesn’t see a ton of burn when the game is competitive, but he might be used extensively in blowouts. He had nine carries last week vs. the Jets, and while he didn’t make the most of them, it gives him plenty of appeal if you think the Bills win this game comfortably.
• Dawson Knox ($2,400 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) – Knox is more of a thorn in Kincaid’s side than someone with standalone value. He has a 9% target share for the year, but tight ends are always a threat around the goal line.
• Ollie Gordon ($2,200 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) – There was some belief that Gordon would fill a Raheem Mostert-like role for the Dolphins in 2025, but that has not been the case so far. Maybe that changes moving forward, but there’s no reason to expect it in Week 3.
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($2,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) – Westbrook-Ikhine was a touchdown merchant for the Titans last year, but he’s had no such luck with the Dolphins to start the year. He’s been on the field for just 32% of the team’s pass plays, and he has just a 5% target share.
• Ty Johnson ($1,600 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) – Johnson is the Bills’ pass-catching RB, playing primarily on third downs. That gives him some upside in PPR formats, though this doesn’t set up as a particularly good game script for him.
• Tanner Conner ($800 DraftKings, $1,600 FanDuel) – Conner is the Dolphins’ starting TE, and he’s the only TE on the roster to see a target this season. That said, he’s run a route on just 55% of their passes, and he has just a 7% target share overall. Still, $800 is extremely cheap, so he’s a viable punt play.

Pictured: Josh Allen
Photo Credit: Imagn