NFL Week 16 wraps up with a Monday Night Football contest between the San Francisco 49ers and the Indianapolis Colts. The 49ers are listed as 5.5-point road favorites, while the total for this game sits at 46.0.
San Francisco enters this contest in control of their own destiny. If they win out, they’ll win the NFC West and likely the No.1 seed in the conference. That’s not going to be easy. After traveling to Indianapolis, they’ll have matchups vs. the Bears and Seahawks over the final two weeks. Those two games will at least be at home, but if the 49ers slip up at any point, they will likely have to settle for a Wild Card berth and a first-round road matchup in the playoffs.
Things aren’t as rosy for the Colts. They got off to an amazing start this season, but they’ve stumbled back to just 8-6 for the year. They’ve lost four straight games, and with Daniel Jones now out for the season, they’re a long shot to make it into the playoffs. They’re currently 1.5 games behind the Texans for the No. 7 seed, and The Athletic gives them just a 3% chance of making the postseason. They would essentially need to win out and get some help from either the Texans, Bills, or Chargers.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Monday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
The two starting running backs headline this game. Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor have been two of the best players in fantasy this season, and they’ve done it in very different ways.
For McCaffrey, his value stems mainly from his elite utilization as a pass-catcher. He’s racked up a 23% target share for the year, which is easily the top mark at the position. De’Von Achane and Bijan Robinson are tied for second at 20%, and McCaffrey’s 86 catches put him eighth in the entire NFL. He’s averaged 6.1 receptions and 58.6 receiving yards per game, giving him nearly 12 PPR points before factoring in any of his work as a rusher or touchdown scorer.
McCaffrey’s work as a runner has left a bit to be desired. He’s averaged just 3.6 yards per carry this season, which is the worst mark of his career. However, he’s still getting plenty of volume. He’s averaged 18.5 carries per game, and he’s handled 70% of the team’s rushing attempts. That includes the vast majority of the opportunities around the goal line, which has led to 14 total touchdowns.
Add it all up, and McCaffrey leads all running backs with an average of 24.6 PPR points per game. He’s also been extremely consistent, posting a positive Plus/Minus in all but four games. He’s had at least 15.7 DraftKings points in all but one, so his only true clunker came in a brutal matchup vs. the Texans’ elite defense.
The Colts don’t stand out as an elite matchup for McCaffrey. They rank second in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points per game to opposing RBs.
However, McCaffrey will take the field as a favorite on Monday, which is a split where he’s historically thrived. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.06 as a favorite for his career, and that figure jumps to +5.22 as a member of the 49ers (per the Trends tool).
While McCaffrey checks all the boxes of a modern NFL running back, Taylor is a bit more of a throwback. He does the vast majority of his damage on the ground, racking up just an 11% target share for the year. Instead, he averages 5.3 yards per carry, and he leads the league in rushing yards per game (103.1) and touchdowns (18).
That makes Taylor a bit more “feast or famine” for fantasy purposes. He tends to score in bunches, racking up three touchdowns in five separate games this season. He’s unsurprisingly erupted in those outings, averaging 38.9 DraftKings points per game, while he’s averaged just 17.9 DraftKings points in his other eight.
Taylor enters this game in poor recent form. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s been at 15.1 DraftKings points or fewer in each contest. He’s still getting plenty of volume – he’s had at least 21 carries in three of those games – but he hasn’t been nearly as effective as usual. They’ve played some tough defenses during that stretch, and without Jones, opponents are free to do their best to take Taylor out of the equation.
The good news for Taylor is that Monday’s matchup should be easier than some of his other recent contests. He’s taking on the 49ers, who are 15th in rush defense EPA. They’ve also allowed the 14th-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs.
As long as the Colts can keep this game relatively competitive, Taylor should see plenty of opportunities to take advantage. He has a slight edge over McCaffrey in terms of median and ceiling projection, despite checking in with a slightly cheaper price tag. He ranks first on the entire slate in projected Plus/Minus, and he ranks first in Sim Labs in optimal Captain Rate. His projected Captain ownership is well below that figure, making him an excellent choice for the top spot in your lineups.
Brock Purdy rounds out this price range, and he’s had a bit of a lost season. He’s been limited to just six games due to injury, though he’s still been pretty productive when on the field. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his six outings, and he’s coming off a season-high 27.2 DraftKings points vs. the Titans last week. He racked up just shy of 300 passing yards and three touchdowns, and he added 44 yards on the ground.
Purdy has a bit more rushing upside than you might realize. He has at least six carries in two of his past three outings, and he had a rushing touchdown in the lone exception. He also averaged 4.4 carries and 21.5 yards per game last year. While no one is going to confuse him with Lamar Jackson, he’s not a complete zero as a runner, either.
There’s no reason Purdy can’t continue to be successful vs. the Colts. Their defense ranks 15th in dropback EPA, and they’re still playing without Sauce Gardner at cornerback.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The 49ers’ pass-catching corps has undergone a bit of upheaval this season. Deebo Samuel is gone, Brandon Aiyuk hasn’t played in a single game, and Ricky Pearsall has missed most of the year with injuries. It’s left George Kittle and Jauan Jennings as their clear top two options.
Kittle has also been sidelined at times this season, but he has been excellent since rejoining Purdy. The two have played in the team’s past four games, and Kittle has posted an elite 28% target share over that stretch. He’s averaged 18.0 PPR points per game in those contests, trailing only Trey McBride at the tight end position.
Kittle is coming off a 32% target share last week vs. the Titans, and he responded with eight catches, 88 yards, and a touchdown. The Colts have been a favorable opponent for tight ends this season, allowing the 10th-most PPR points per game to the position, so it’s another spot where Kittle can do some damage. He has the top projections in this price range and trails only the three studs in projected Plus/Minus.
Jennings should serve as the 1B to Kittle’s 1A. His target share is at just 23% over his past four games with Purdy, but that was with Pearsall in the lineup for each of those contests. Pearsall had a 15% target share of his own, including a 25% mark last week.
Jennings is also the team’s clear leader in air yards over that time frame. He’s racked up 34% of the team’s air yards, and he’s also seen 44% of their end zone targets. That gives him, arguably, a higher ceiling than Kittle.
The Colts have also been a better matchup for receivers than tight ends this season. They’ve allowed the third-most PPR points per game to the position, trailing only the Cowboys and Lions.
Jennings is grading out as the most undervalued Captain option in this price range. His optimal rate at the top spot is nearly 8% in Sim Labs, while his projected ownership is less than half that figure.
Philip Rivers is back in the NFL in 2025. What a time to be alive. Rivers last played in 2020, and he is literally a grandpa. Still, with the Colts without their top two quarterback options and fighting for their postseason lives, he’s the team’s best option for the time being.
While his body may be breaking down, he clearly still has the mind for the position. He managed to keep the Colts competitive vs. the Seahawks last week despite joining the team less than a week prior.
Unfortunately, that didn’t exactly result in good fantasy production. He completed 18 of 27 passes for 120 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He finished with just 7.8 DraftKings points, albeit against an elite defense. Rivers should have an easier go of things vs. the 49ers, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.6 for fantasy purposes. That’s the top mark on Monday’s slate.
Still, the Colts figure to try to keep the ball out of Rivers’ hands as much as possible. That gives him some of the lowest projections you’ll ever see for a quarterback in our NFL Models. Even at just $8,800, he still stands out as a poor value.
Rivers’ top four pass-catchers round out this price range, and it’s hard to get too excited about any of them. If your quarterback isn’t expected to do much damage, it’s going to have a trickle-down effect on his receivers.
Alec Pierce is the easiest to cross off. Pierce was having a breakout season with Jones under center, but he makes his living off big plays. Even in his prime, Rivers wasn’t exactly slinging the ball downfield. Pierce saw just one target last week, and that seems unlikely to change moving forward.
That leaves Michael Pittman, Tyler Warren, and Josh Downs. Those three guys do their damage much closer to the line of scrimmage, making them more logical fits with their new quarterback.
Pittman posted a 20% target share in Rivers’ first start, while Warren led the squad at 24%. Downs ranked third on the squad at 16%, though he led the team in fantasy production thanks to a touchdown.
Pittman has the highest projections among the trio in our NFL Models, but that comes with the highest price tag. Warren has the edge in projected Plus/Minus, while Downs has the highest optimal Flex rate in Sim Labs. Using more than one of these guys feels like a mistake – even if you’re also using Rivers – but it’s possible that one could crack the optimal lineup.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. This feels like a slate where getting as many of the high-priced studs as possible is the preferred lineup construction, making these options even more valuable than usual. The kickers stand out as the best values of the bunch in our projections.
- Kendrick Bourne ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) – Bourne should slide into the No. 2 receiver role for the 49ers with Pearsall sidelined. He’s posted some solid games when he’s had the opportunity to play this season, though most of those came with Mac Jones under center.
- Demarcus Robinson ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) – Robinson should be the 49ers’ No. 3 receiver vs. the Colts. However, he’s already been in that role in recent games, so he doesn’t figure to get the same type of bump as Bourne.
- Brian Robinson ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) – Robinson will serve as McCaffrey’s backup in this contest. That hasn’t been a particularly valuable role for most of the year. Still, he’s very affordable at $3,000 and should get a handful of opportunities. He would also likely get the mop-up work if this game gets out of hand, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
- Ameer Abdullah ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) – Abdullah is the No. 2 back for the Colts, and he saw a 20% target share in Rivers’ first game. If he’s going to handle the pass-catching responsibilities in the team’s backfield, he could have value moving forward.
- Kyle Juszczyk ($1,400 DraftKings, $1,800 FanDuel) – Juszczyk is always a threat for a couple of touches, especially around the goal line. He actually has the sixth-highest optimal Flex rate in Sim Labs, mostly because using him means you can fit in most of the higher-priced options.
Pictured: Brock Purdy
Photo Credit: Imagn
