NFL Week 14 gets underway with an absolute banger. Two of the best teams in the NFC will square off in a huge divisional showdown. The Green Bay Packers will travel to Detroit to take on the Lions, with the Lions listed as 3.5-point home favorites. The total on this game sits at a robust 51.5 points.
The Lions have been the best team in football this season, cruising to an 11-1 record. That said, they’ve hit a few speed bumps of late. They managed to win a game where Jared Goff threw five interceptions, and they tried their best to blow their win over the Bears on Thanksgiving. The Packers represent a step up in competition, so they’re going to have to play better than they have in recent weeks to secure another W.
Meanwhile, the Packers are rounding into form for the second straight year. They were one of the best teams in football in the second half of last season, and they’ve picked up convincing wins in back-to-back weeks.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Thursday Night Football.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
In a game with a massive total between two good teams… there is a surprising lack of DFS superstars. Only Amon-Ra St. Brown is priced in the five-figure range, and he just barely qualifies at $10,200.
St. Brown’s season has been fascinating. On one hand, he’s been the Lions’ clear No. 1 option in the passing game. He’s racked up a 28% target share, which is tied for the sixth-best mark among all receivers. He also has nine receiving touchdowns, which is tied for the second-most in football. Add it all up, and he’s fifth among receivers in PPR points per game.
The fact that Brown has been able to do that while playing for one of the most low-volume passing attacks in football is impressive. Detroit has averaged just 29.3 passing attempts per game this season, which is the sixth-lowest mark in the league. Goff has thrown the ball 25 times or fewer in six separate outings this season, and he’s been above 30 only three times.
That gives him a bit more upside in weeks where the Lions have to throw the ball more than usual. This week vs. the Packers certainly qualifies. The Lions are favored by just 3.5 points, so this is expected to be a competitive contest.
St. Brown has historically done some of his best work in games that are expected to be competitive. In games where the Lions are between -4.0 and +4.0, he’s averaged 20.45 DraftKings points and a +2.63 Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool). He has been slightly less productive in that split this season, but he’s still averaged more than 20 DraftKings points per game.
Ultimately, St. Brown is one of the top options on the slate. He leads all players in median projection, and he trails only the quarterbacks in ceiling projection.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Josh Jacobs is next on the pricing spectrum, and he’s been on a heater for the Packers of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six outings, and he’s scored at least 20.2 DraftKings points in each. That includes a massive outing two weeks ago vs. the 49ers, where he finished as the second-highest-scorer at the position. Overall, he’s had a top-five RB finish in three straight weeks.
Unfortunately, it’s hard to envision Jacobs having the same success vs. the Lions. The Packers are underdogs, and RBs tend to get fewer carries in those game scripts. He had just 13 carries in his first meeting vs. the Lions, and despite averaging 7.3 yards per attempt, he still failed to return value. Jacobs has been minimally involved in the passing attack this season – he owns just a 10% target share – so he’s pretty game script dependent.
The good news for Jacobs is that the Lions are going to be pretty thin on the defensive line. Specifically, they’ll be without run-stuffing nose tackle D.J. Reader, which should make them a bit more vulnerable on the ground. That makes this a better spot than it seems on paper.
Goff is having a very efficient season for the Lions, outside of that five-interception game vs. the Texans. Still, his 8.87 adjusted yards per attempt is the top mark of his career, as is his 6.5% touchdown rate.
Still, the Lions’ low pass volume has left a lot to be desired with his fantasy production. He’s had a couple of spike weeks, scoring at least 27.18 DraftKings points in three of 12 outings, but he’s failed to return value in most of the others. Overall, his average of 17.4 fantasy points per game ranks merely 15th among quarterbacks.
However, Goff will have the benefit of playing at home this week, which is where he tends to play best. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.68 at home as a member of the Lions, averaging just over 21 DraftKings points per game.
Ultimately, Goff owns the highest ceiling projection on the slate, so he’s worth considering in this matchup.
Jordan Love is the other quarterback, and he’s been better than Goff for fantasy purposes all season. He’s seventh at QB in terms of fantasy points per game, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in two of his past three outings.
The downside with Love on Thursday is the matchup. Detroit has been elite against the pass this season, ranking second in the league in pass defense EPA. They’ve also allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position despite the fact that opposing offenses are typically forced to throw the ball at an elevated rate. Love managed just 11.92 DraftKings points in his first matchup vs. the Lions, though he was at less than 100% in that matchup.
Love stands out as a better pure “value” than Goff – he has a higher median projection and projected Plus/Minus – but his ceiling isn’t quite as high.
The main reason for the Lions’ lack of passing this season is the fact that they have one of the best running games in football. They have an elite offensive line and one of the best RB tandems in the league.
Jahmyr Gibbs is technically the Lions’ RB2 in terms of carries, but he’s their clear top option for fantasy purposes. He makes up for it with his work as a pass-catcher, and he’s also an explosive athlete. He’s yet to finish as worse than RB23 in PPR scoring this season, and he has six weeks as a top-11 option. That gives him an elite combination of consistency and upside.
David Montgomery is more of the traditional between-the-tackles grinder. He’s racked up 44% of the team’s carries this season, and that figure jumped to 64% last week vs. the Bears. Montgomery is also the more likely back to receive the goal line carries, handling 52% of the opportunities from inside the five-yard line.
Ultimately, splitting these guys is pretty difficult on a weekly basis. Both are capable of going off, and this stands out as a decent matchup. The Packers haven’t been quite as good at defending the run as they have against the pass. Using either of these guys makes sense, and pairing them together isn’t as bad of an idea as it might seem on paper. They do have a negative correlation (-0.21), but it’s not as bad as you’d typically see between two running backs.
Jayden Reed has been the Packers’ top receiver for fantasy purposes, though his utilization isn’t quite as impressive as you’d expect for a WR1. He’s seen just an 18% target share this season, and he has just 17% of the team’s air yards. He’s made up for it by scoring seven touchdowns, and he’s also averaged just under 10 rushing yards per game.
Still, Reed seems like a risky investment this week. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just two of his past eight games, and he hasn’t scored more than 20 DraftKings points since Week 4. He simply doesn’t bring a ton of upside to the table on a weekly basis.
Jameson Williams is the big-play threat for the Lions, and his role has grown steadily throughout the year. After returning to the lineup in Week 10, Williams has posted a 22% target share and 32% air yards share. His targets typically come well past the line of scrimmage, so unlike Reed, he has plenty of upside.
Christian Watson is the Packers’ version of Williams. His target share isn’t quite as strong, though he is still a massive big-play threat. He had just a 12% target share last week, but he still had 49% of the team’s air yards.
The Packers will be without Romeo Doubs for the second straight week, so there could be more opportunities than usual for Watson to make plays vs. the Lions.
Last but not least are the two tight ends. Sam LaPorta was expected to be one of the top tight ends in fantasy this season, but that simply hasn’t materialized. He’s seen a step back in nearly every metric across the board, and he has just a 14% target share for the year. The emergence of Williams as a viable No. 2 receiver has hurt LaPorta more than anyone else on the roster.
However, he has been a bit more involved recently. His target share is up to 20% over his past five outings, and he’s scored at least 15.6 DraftKings points in three of them. Ultimately, he’s a boom-or-bust option at his current price tag, but he does have decent upside.
Tucker Kraft is the Packers’ tight end, and he’s coming off a strong showing last week vs. the Dolphins. He turned seven targets into six catches for 78 yards, resulting in 13.8 DraftKings points. He’s another player who could benefit from the continued absence of Doubs, so he’s also a viable option in this price range.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Lions defense stands out as the most undervalued of these units, checking in with a 15.2% optimal lineup rate and 11.9% projected ownership.
- Dontayvion Wicks ($4,200 DraftKings, FanDuel) – With Doubs, Wicks had an 82% route participation and 19% target share last week vs. the Packers. That didn’t result in a ton of fantasy production (7.0 DraftKings points), but he has the potential for a bigger performance vs. the Lions. He’s one of the best pure values on the slate.
- Tim Patrick ($3,400 DraftKings, FanDuel) – Patrick is an underrated NFL receiver, and he’s been a solid addition to the Lions’ receiving corps. He had a 72% route participation last week, and he’s been targeted on 13% of his routes run this season.
- Brock Wright ($3,000 DraftKings, FanDuel) – Wright is the TE2 behind LaPorta, and he’s a threat to score a touchdown around the goal line. That said, he doesn’t bring much else to the table. He has just a 5% target share for the year, and his routes are trending in the wrong direction.
- Chris Brooks ($2,400 DraftKings, FanDuel) – After Jacobs, there isn’t a ton of work left for the other RBs on the Packers’ roster. However, Brooks appears to be the preferred RB2 at the moment. He occasionally spells Jacobs on passing downs, and he also had a 23% carry share last week.
- Emanuel Wilson ($2,000 DraftKings, FanDuel) – Wilson played on just 8% of the snaps in Week 13, so he’s not really in the rotation at the moment.
