The biggest tournaments on DraftKings for Wild Card Weekend are split between the two-game Saturday slate and the three-game Sunday slate — though there is a six-game option beginning on Saturday if you’re interested in entering lineups across all three days.
I’m mostly focusing on the Sunday-only slate in this piece but will also make references to where a player stacks up on the full slate for those of you playing those contests as well.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Josh Allen ($7,000) Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (51.5 Total)
The Sunday slate leads off with Bills-Jaguars, and the first game of the day looks to be the best one of the weekend for fantasy purposes. The 51.5-point total is at least five points clear of any other matchup on the weekend (not just Sunday), and the close spread means, in theory, we should see aggressive offensive play from both teams.
That second point is especially relevant for Allen and the Bills. The limiting factor for the former MVP has often been the Bills’ ability to take their foot off the gas after Allen gets them a comfortable lead. He’s priced as one of the most expensive QBs most weeks due to his consistency but often has a hard time getting to a (price-considered) ceiling.
A matchup with Jacksonville has a good chance of changing that. The 13-4 Jaguars ranked sixth in scoring this season and faced the highest opponent Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) of any team in the NFL this season. Those factors should combine to a big passing day (at least from a volume standpoint) for Allen.
He leads the weekend in median and ceiling projection, though he also comes with the highest ownership of any QB. I’m less concerned about ownership on the six-game slate, but there’s a case to fading Allen on the Sunday-only contest due to his likely popularity. At a minimum, it’s important to be somewhat contrarian in lineups with Allen, since avoiding duplicated lineups is probably more valuable than maximizing expected score on a three-game slate.
Value: Trevor Lawrence ($6,100) Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (51.5 Total)
Arguably the best pivot from Allen is his opponent, Trevor Lawrence. The logic is fairly simple: a game script that leads to a big score for Allen is probably a result of a good game from Lawrence, who is nearly $1,000 cheaper and projecting for less than half the ownership.
I find that argument fairly compelling. In the three games Allen scored at least 30 DraftKings points this season; the opposing QB hit 25 points in two of them. I’d prefer 25 points from Lawrence to 30 from Allen considering both salary and ownership, making him the better GPP option.
Plus, Lawrence has been nearly as good as Allen this season, averaging 1.7 fewer fantasy points while the Jaguars ranked 7th in PROE on the year. It’s an even better matchup on paper, with Buffalo ranking 12th in DVOA against the pass and Jacksonville ranking fifth.
Lawrence leads the Sunday slate in Pts/Sal projection at QB and is my favorite option for both cash games and GPPs.
Quick Hits
Drake Maye ($6,800): Maye has played like a young Josh Allen this season, putting up points with both his arm and his legs this year. He trailed only Allen and Hurts in rushing attempts among QBs and was fourth in passing yards on the season. The problem is the matchup. The Chargers allowed the second-fewest points to QBs this season while struggling offensively, so the likeliest outcome is New England controlling this one on the ground. Maye isn’t a bad play, but it’s hard to justify him over Lawrence at what should be similar ownership.
Jalen Hurts ($6,300): Hurts has had one of his worst seasons as a pro, averaging the fewest fantasy points of any QB playing on Sunday. However, he also has the best matchup against a 49ers team that allowed an average of 33 points to the Bears, Colts, and Titans over a three-week span. I prefer to attack this matchup through Eagles FLEX plays, but pairing them with Hurts also makes some sense.
Brock Purdy ($6,000): That same three-week span that saw the 49ers defense fall apart also saw Purdy average over 30 DraftKings points per game, as he’s been forced to play aggressively in repeated shootouts. That’s a good omen for this week against the Eagles, even if it is a tough defense. It’s not that hard to put up points when you can check down to Christian McCaffrey and have that turn into big gains, so Purdy is a viable option, especially if stacking this game.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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