The biggest tournaments on DraftKings for Wild Card Weekend are split between the two-game Saturday slate and the three-game Sunday slate — though there is a six-game option beginning on Saturday if you’re interested in entering lineups across all three days.
I’ll be primarily focusing on the two-game slate in this piece but will discuss which players still make my list for the six-game slate, as well as the strategy I’m taking there.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Matthew Stafford ($6,900) Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers (46.5 Total)
We don’t see a ton of double-digit road favorites in the NFL playoffs, but that’s what we have here with the Rams. The winner of the extremely weak NFC South still gets a home playoff game, and in this case it’s the Panthers, who backed into the position despite losing their Week 18 matchup.
Regardless, that’s good news for the Rams offense. We’ll be seeing a lot of them in the top position in this breakdown, as both games on Saturday have similar totals, but the much wider spread in this matchup means the Rams team total is by far the highest on the slate.
As for Stafford specifically, the Rams QB is the presumptive MVP, led the league in passing yards and touchdowns in the regular season, and gets to face a below-average defense. The Panthers have a negative Opponent Plus/Minus score to QBs, but that’s primarily a result of opposing teams running all over them. Since Los Angeles had a top-three pass rate over expectation this season, there’s less of a concern that they move away from the passing game.
Which means Stafford should see a reasonable amount of volume and his typical elite efficiency. He’s a fringe full-weekend candidate for me (mainly for pricing reasons) but an excellent Saturday Slate choice with fairly obvious stacking options. He’ll also come with heavy ownership, which makes him a tougher large-field GPP play, so I’ll be looking for some off-the-wall options to include in Stafford lineups in an effort to avoid being duped.
Value: Caleb Williams ($5,600) Chicago Bears (+1.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (45.5 Total)
Caleb Williams has an identical Pts/Sal projection as his opposite number in this one, making it tricky to pick between the two in a game that has seen both teams favored at various points.
However, he’s my slight preference if moving away from Stafford. A big reason is because the Bears are slightly easier to stack than the Packers, especially with Rome Odunze ($5,800) returning this week. I’m not entirely confident that Williams will outscore Jordan Love, but if he does, it’s far easier to predict where the points will go.
Green Bay is a roughly average defense (both overall and against the pass) with the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to the position on the Saturday slate, so it’s a good matchup in the context of the two-gamer. One concern is the weather, which is expected to be rainy and windy — albeit with temperatures in the 30s — but there are similar conditions in Carolina, making it hard to avoid no matter which QB you choose.
None of this is a ringing endorsement, of course, and on the larger slate I’ll likely avoid the passing attacks from both Saturday games (outside of Puka Nacua, at least), but if playing the two-gamer, Williams is a solid pivot from Stafford.
Quick Hits
Jordan Love ($5,300): As discussed above, Love and Williams have virtually identical projections, with Love ranking slightly lower but also coming in $300 cheaper. The problem is that he’s nearly impossible to stack, with Green Bay featuring five wide receivers and two tight ends with non-zero projections. One option is to roster Love but stack the Bears’ top receivers, but outside of that, I won’t be playing much of him.
Bryce Young ($5,000): Young has topped 20 DraftKings points just three times this season — but one was in the Panthers’ upset win over the Rams. That’s probably not enough to justify playing him, but if you’re looking for an excuse, there it is. He also has extremely low projected ownership, but that’s probably because he’s a bad play.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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