NFL DFS Picks: Week 7 Monday Night Football DraftKings Breakdown

We have an interesting two-game slate in Week 7, with the first game (Bucs-Lions) giving us an excellent contest for DFS purposes with a 53.5 total. Texans-Seahawks has a total of just 41.5, but finding some DFS value there could be key to the slate.

We’re back to non-overlapping games as well, so late swap is also a key factor. Lineups lock at 7:00 p.m. ET with the Lions game, and the late game starts at 10:00.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud: Baker Mayfield ($6,600) Tampa Bay Bucs (+6) at Detroit Lions (53.5 Total)

Mayfield has been one of the most consistent DFS QBs this season, with five of his six games finishing between 17.72 and 22.58 DraftKings points — and the exception being above that range, not below it. That’s especially impressive given the lack of weaponry he’s had around him. All three of his starting WRs have missed extensive time, as well as pass-catching RB Bucky Irving.

While he’s not getting everyone back this week — Irving and Chris Godwin are out — it looks like he’ll have at least one but probably two starting receivers active. Which is a lot more starters than Detroit’s defensive backfield has. Three of the four opening day starters are injured, and the fourth has been suspended for this week.

Mayfield should have no problems carving up this defense, which also plays man coverage at a high rate. That tends to encourage more QB scrambles, and Mayfield will occasionally contribute with his legs as well. Plus, both teams have played at a top-ten pace this season, so he should have plenty of drives. It’s hard to poke many holes in him this week, and he leads the position in median and ceiling projection.

Value: Jared Goff ($6,000) Detroit Lions (-6) vs. Tampa Bay Bucs (53.5 Total)

On the other side of the ball, Goff has been far less consistent than Mayfield. He’s been held under 17 DraftKings points four times this season, but with a 21.12 and 36.96 score thrown in for good measure. His bad games have been either spots where the Lions controlled the game and he wasn’t forced to be aggressive or against top-tier passing defenses in outdoor games.

The latter is certainly not the case here, as Goff is at home and playing against the Bucs’ 20th-ranked pass defense by DVOA. Tampa ranks sixth against the run, so if there’s ever a spot to force Detroit to the air, this is it. The Lions rank 31st in Pass Rate Over Expectation but will open things up as needed if the game environment pushes them.

With the terrible state of the Lions defense, odds are they’ll be forced to put up some points in this one. That makes this a great spot for the Lions passing attack, especially at home. Goff leads all players in Pts/Sal projection and is an extremely strong play tonight.

Quick Hits

Sam Darnold ($5,400): Darnold has put up more than 50 DraftKings points over the past two weeks but now has to face the #2 pass defense in the league in the Texans. Houston hasn’t allowed a 20-point QB score all season and has held three straight passers to single-digit scores. Plus, roughly a third of Darnold’s passes go to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, so you can just roster him and capture most of Darnold’s scoring.

C.J. Stroud ($5,200): Stroud had a potential breakout game last week against the Ravens, completing more than 80% of his passes and throwing four touchdowns. This is a tougher matchup, though, and Houston’s terrible offensive line will make for some tough sledding. Of the two QBs in the later game, he’d be my preferred option, but that’s not saying a ton.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks