With bye weeks and international games, we have another ten-game slate for Week 7, which kicks off at the usual 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Jayden Daniels ($6,900) Washington Commanders (+1.5) at Dallas Cowboys (54.5 Total)
Daniels is technically second among QBs in our median and ceiling projections but is within a point of the leader and costs $100 less. He also has a dream matchup against the Cowboys, who rank dead last in points allowed to QBs and 31st in DVOA against the pass and total points allowed.
The conundrum with Daniels this week is he may be out of people to throw to. His top receiver, Terry McLaurin, has been ruled out again this week, with Deebo Samuel and tight end Zach Ertz both questionable. Ertz seems relatively likely to play, while Samuel could come down to a true game-time decision.
Of course, with Daniels’ rushing upside, that’s not as big of an issue as it would be for many QBs. His best games typically come when he gets it done with his legs, including his meeting with Dallas last year. He put up 32.4 DraftKings points, with 74 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Daniels left the second meeting with the Cowboys early due to an injury last season.
Plus, Daniels threw for three touchdowns last week without McLaurin and Samuel only accounted for 15 scoreless yards. That was against a better defense in the Bears, so it’s easy to see how he gets there again this week. A slight underdog in the highest-total game of the week — that happens to be inside while other games have weather concerns — is also an ideal spot for a QB. He’s also tied for the lead in Pts/Sal projection and is a strong option regardless of contest type.
Value: Caleb Williams ($5,800) Chicago Bears (-4.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
The player tied with Daniels for the Pts/Sal projection lead is Williams, who led the Bears to a win over Daniels’ Commanders last week. It wasn’t the strongest fantasy performance, clocking in at just under 20 DraftKings points, but he saved it with a rushing touchdown.
Williams obviously isn’t the rusher that Daniels is, but he does raise his production with some occasional scrambles. He also has a much better/healthier group of targets to throw to, with a trio of wide receivers all drafted in the top 40 and all cleared to play this week. In total, five different Bears have target shares of at least 10%. Since all of those targets come from Williams, the easiest way to capture the fantasy production is through the QB.
The weather in Chicago this weekend could be an issue, however. All of the attention is going to the Dolphins-Browns game in Cleveland, but this game might be problematic as well. Be sure to check the free NFL DFS Weather Report from our friends at RotoGrinders on Sunday, as this is a fluid situation that could downgrade Williams’ projections considerably.
If the weather eases up by game time, he’s far too cheap for a strong matchup against the Saints, though. New Orleans ranks 27th in DVOA against the pass and points allowed to QBs.
Quick Hits
Patrick Mahomes ($7,000): Mahomes narrowly edges out Daniels for the top projections in our models, as the Chiefs offense has made massive strides the past three weeks. Mahomes has topped 27 DraftKings points in three straight, with two 30-point games. Those games came against teams with the offensive juice to push Kansas City, though, and it’s unlikely the Raiders will force much aggression out of the Chiefs. He’s a safer bet for 20+ points than any QB on the slate but probably lacks week-winning upside relative to his salary unless the Raiders have some surprises in store.
Dak Prescott ($6,500): The sharper way to attack Commanders-Cowboys might be through Prescott. He gets his top wide receiver, CeeDee Lamb, back this week after throwing ten touchdowns in three games without him. Washington is a tougher defensive matchup but not one to avoid, so stacking the Cowboys passing attack with the Commanders running game is an interesting option.
Jacoby Brissett ($4,500): We’ve had a cheap backup QB in play nearly every week this season, and this week it’s Jacoby Brissett’s turn. The Cardinal’s second-string passer threw for 320 yards and two scores last week but has a tougher task against the Packers in Week 7. He’s cheap enough that his real value is allowing you to load up on other expensive players, which is his biggest appeal this week.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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