With the start of bye weeks, we’re now down to 10 games on the Week 6 main slate, which kicks off at the usual 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Justin Herbert ($6,300) Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins (43.5 Total)
Justin Herbert continues to project extremely well, despite the fact that since his Week 1 30-point performance, he’s yet to crack 20 DraftKings points. This week could be when he returns to that level of production, though, thanks to an excellent matchup against the Dolphins.
Miami ranks dead last in overall defensive DVOA and 31st against the pass specifically. That’s worked out to three opposing QBs scoring at least 26 DraftKings points in their four games this season, for an Opponent Plus/Minus score of +5.8. DVOA is largely a measure of efficiency, which is especially relevant for Herbert and the Chargers due to their high pass rate.
The Chargers rank second in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) through five weeks and have played at a top-ten overall pace despite being 3-2 (typically we’d expect teams with losing records to play faster on balance). That was before losing a second starting running back for an extended period last week — they might have no choice but to air it out now.
Plus, with Herbert’s relatively concentrated attack, picking the right stacking partners is a straightforward process. I’d suggest stacking him with two of his receivers for GPPs. Herbert doesn’t provide much with his legs, so a big day from him likely brings at least two other Chargers along for the ride. He leads the slate in median and ceiling projection.
Value: Bryce Young ($4,800) Carolina Panthers (+3) vs. Dallas Cowboys (49.5 Total)
Bryce Young has had moments where it looked like a third-year breakout is incoming, but they’ve been relatively few and far between. The 2023 NFL draft’s #1 overall pick, Young ranks in the bottom third of the league or so in most comprehensive measures of QB play, including Expected Points Added (EPA) and total QB Rating (QBR).
On the bright side, he seems to have found a real chemistry with his rookie wide receiver, Tetairoa McMillan, and has led the Panthers to a 2-3 record through five games. Now, they get to face a Dallas defense that has allowed the most points to QBs on the season as slight underdogs in the game with the slate’s highest total.
That’s about as perfect a scenario as one could dream up, especially at Young’s price tag. Every QB the Cowboys have faced has scored at least 24 DraftKings points, which would be nearly 5x Young’s Week 6 salary. Even if he falls ten points short of that, he’s still hit 3x his salary this week. Plus, it’s not like the Cowboys have faced a string of top QBs. They allowed 34 points to Russell Wilson, who has since been benched, and 25 to Justin Fields.
Young might be the worst of that group, but not by much. He has a massive price-considered ceiling and a solid floor, while checking in second in Pts/Sal projections.
Quick Hits
Trevor Lawrence ($5,100): Lawrence ranks just ahead of Young in Pts/Sal projection, one week after leading the Jaguars to an upset over the Chiefs thanks to a 4th quarter rushing touchdown. That had more to do with Chiefs defender Chris Jones giving up on the play than anything else. Now he gets a tough matchup against the Seahawks. Lawrence is a fine play in a vacuum, but I suspect recency bias will inflate his ownership beyond his value.
Dak Prescott ($6,500): The other half of the best DFS game on the slate, Prescott has topped 60 DraftKings points over the past two weeks without his top wide receiver, CeeDee Lamb. While Lamb has just an outside shot of making it back this week, Prescott has a great matchup with the Panthers and some obvious stacking options, making him a solid GPP play.
Editor’s note: This article was written before the Lamb news was official.
Matthew Stafford ($6,400): It might be time to admit that the Ravens defense is just bad. Or at least, the Ravens defense as it currently stands with so many injuries. They’ve allowed the second-most QB fantasy points on the season and the most actual scoring. While they’re getting slightly healthier on defense, I doubt it’s enough to slow down Stafford, who has six passing touchdowns and 764 yards over his last two games.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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