We’ve got the second Monday night doubleheader of the season in Week 4. The first time, we had two games running with little-to-no overlap, making late-swap an important feature. This time around, the Bengals-Broncos contest kicks off just one hour after the start of Jets-Dolphins at 7:15 p.m. ET, so we won’t have much time to adapt to early game performance before that one locks
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud/Value: Justin Fields ($5,500) New York Jets (+2.5) at Miami Dolphins (44.5 Total)
Justin Fields has been out since midway through Week 2, when he suffered a concussion in a loss to the Bills. He cleared the protocol early this week and was able to practice in full, so he should be at 100% coming into a juicy matchup with the Dolphins.
The last time Fields played a complete game, he scored just over 29 DraftKings points, and that was against a tough Steelers defense. More than half of his scoring came with his legs, with 48 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. 40+ rushing yards is probably a reasonable assumption for Fields, but he’s obviously not going to run for multiple touchdowns most weeks.
Which means his strong projection against the Dolphins relies on Fields being more productive through the air. Miami’s defense has allowed more than 30 points in all three games this season and the second-most DraftKings points to QBs, so it’s not a stretch to think Fields can excel in this spot.
We have him projected for a narrow lead in both median and Pts/Sal projection, making him the best play on paper on the slate. However, with salary relatively loose on the slate, it would make sense to pivot to more expensive QBs if they came with an ownership discount — be sure to check our models closer to game time to see if that’s the case.
Quick Hits
Bo Nix ($6,000): As of now, we have Nix projected to be the most popular QB on the slate by a wide margin, while trailing Fields in both median and ceiling projection. He has a winnable matchup with the Bengals, but with Denver favored by more than a touchdown, he might be called upon to attack much. I’m only interested in Nix as part of game stacks with the Bengals — and even then it might make more sense to roster the other QB.
Tua Tagovailoa ($5,200): Tagovailoa is off to a rough start to the season, with the 0-3 Dolphins struggling to get anything going. He’s taken eight sacks and thrown four interceptions through three games, though he’s faced tougher defenses than the Jets so far. Still, it’s hard to make a case for Tagovailoa other than the fact that short passes to Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane could turn into touchdowns. That’s not enough for me, but I could see the argument.
Jake Browning ($5,700): Jake Browning put up over 20 DraftKings points in less than a full game in relief of Joe Burrow in Week 2, then was terrible in Week 3. You could convince yourself that Week 3 was more because of the Vikings’ strong defense than anything else, but Browning is a backup for a reason. Still, he has talented pass catchers and Denver’s defense hasn’t been great. I’ll have some game stacks with Browning and his top receivers, which should be relatively low-owned.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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