Football is back! Week 4 features an 11-game main slate that kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Josh Allen ($7,700) Buffalo Bills (-15.5) at New Orleans Saints (48 Total)
As DFS players, we have a pretty good understanding of what to expect from Josh Allen on a week-to-week basis. He’s capable of exploding for massive scores when the Bills need him to but typically finishes in the low 20s. However, he’s priced for his average score, which, due to blowup games, is far above his median outcome.
The problem with Allen this week is that the Saints are unlikely to force him into the kind of heroic output he needs to take down a tournament. While Allen will occasionally approach 30 in blowout wins, that’s probably not enough at his salary. His biggest (40+) scores have all came in one-score games, and the Bills are favored by 15.5 this week.
However, that does leave one option for rostering Allen in GPPs. If you think the Saints can surprise everyone and keep this one close, Allen is firmly in play. That means pairing him with Saints skill position players as bring backs. Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson account for more than half of their targets so the offense is concentrated, but it’s fairly unlikely either is able to do much.
Outside of that, I’m comfortable fading Allen this week, even with his slate-leading median and ceiling projection. He could easily lead the position in scoring without helping you win a GPP, which is the real goal.
Value: Marcus Mariota ($5,000) Washington Commanders (+2.5) at Atlanta Falcons (43.5 Total)
Mariota got the starting nod last week with Jayden Daniels injured and put up more than 21 DraftKings points at the minimum $4,000 salary. This week he’s priced up to $5,000, but with Daniels ruled out, he’s still too cheap.
On paper, the matchup with the Falcons is just as good as last week’s against the Raiders. Atlanta’s defense just gave up 30 points to the lowly Panthers, so even this limited version of the Commanders’ offense should have no trouble moving the ball. Mariota provides a solid floor with his rushing ability, picking up 40 yards and a touchdown on six attempts in Week 3.
His ceiling could be limited by the lack of receiver talent in Washington, though. Terry McLaurin has also been ruled out, after accounting for 74 of Mariota’s 204 passing yards last week. The good news is that they should concentrate targets heavily among the remaining Washington skill players, so stacking Mariota is fairly straightforward.
Plus, Mariota is an extremely solid cash game option, and he’s tied for the lead in Pts/Sal. He doesn’t need to hit a ceiling to pay off in cash games, which is where I’ll have most of my exposure.
Quick Hits
Jaxson Dart ($4,500): Dart was named the starter for the Giants this week, as Russell Wilson clearly wasn’t working. He has talent around him with his pass catchers, but a terrible offensive line and a somewhat tough matchup with the Chargers. Still, he showed a willingness to attack downfield and plenty of arm strength in the preseason, so he could get there on some big plays. He’s tied with Mariota for the Pts/Sal lead and is my preferred GPP option, though I’d also consider him in cash games if I needed the extra $500.
Lamar Jackson ($7,500): Jackson is $200 cheaper and projecting for lower ownership than Josh Allen, in a theoretically better game environment against the Chiefs. Kansas City’s offense hasn’t been great this season but they’re more likely to keep pace than the Saints are in Buffalo. That makes Jackson my preferred pay-up QB, even though he trails Allen by a couple of points in median and ceiling projection.
Caleb Williams ($5,800): Williams finally had his breakout in Week 3, throwing for four touchdowns and 298 yards against the Cowboys. Now he gets a similarly soft matchup against a Raiders team that just gave up 41 points to Mariota and the Commanders. Williams is still too cheap here and could be forced into more volume with the Bears as slight underdogs on the road.
Patrick Mahomes ($6,000): While Mahomes hasn’t been an elite DFS option since the days of Tyreek Hill and a prime Travis Kelce, he’s in a quietly good spot against the Ravens. Baltimore is favored, and the Chiefs rank second in PROE to the Chargers on the season. That should mean tons of passing volume, plus Xavier Worthy is back to give Mahomes some weaponry.
Jared Goff ($6,400): The Browns defense is good, but mostly against the run, and the Lions have a 27-point team total (second best on the slate.) Could they choose to just air it out all game rather than challenge the Browns at their strength? It’s certainly possible, and the Browns’ man-heavy scheme makes stacking partners fairly obvious (more on that later).
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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