The last week of the season is always challenging. A large chunk of the team’s playing will be resting starters for some or all of the game, and some teams may have motivations change based on the outcomes of other games, which could also impact their strategy. Plus, some players have performance-based contract incentives that could impact their usage.
That leaves DFS players with two options. The first is to prioritize players on teams we know (or suspect) will be treating this as a normal game. That strategy is certainly safer but gives less upside. The other strategy is to lean into the uncertainty in questionable spots. We won’t get them all right, but just a few is enough to cash some massive wins.
We have 13 teams in play for the final main slate of the season, with the standard 1:00 p.m. ET start time.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Trevor Lawrence ($6,400) Jacksonville Jaguars (-13.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (47.5 Total)
Jacksonville has the widest range of outcomes for any team playing on the main slate. They could theoretically finish as high as the #1 seed or as low as the #7 seed in the AFC. While both extremes are fairly unlikely, they still need a win to clinch the AFC South and lock in (at least) the #3 seed, which comes with a home playoff game.
That means Lawrence and the Jaguars will be playing this one out, barring the unlikely scenario that Houston is being blown out late by the Colts (they play simultaneously, but a Texans loss clinches the South for Jacksonville without a Jaguars win). Beyond that, it’s also a tremendous matchup for a player that’s been red hot lately.
Lawrence has averaged over 30 points per game over his last three contests and has beaten salary-based expectations in six straight. The Titans rank 22nd in points allowed to QBs and have the second-highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed on the slate. That gives Lawrence a high floor at a minimum, with his ceiling potentially capped by this one turning into a blowout.
Which means Lawrence GPP lineups need a bring-back or two from the Titans, but he’s a rock-solid cash game play by himself. Jacksonville has the highest team total on the slate and throws the ball at a high rate, so even if Lawrence takes a seat late, he’ll likely have solid production before then.
He leads the position in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projection, making him the best all-around option this week.
Value: Caleb Williams ($5,900) Chicago Bears (-3) vs. Detroit Lions (50.5 Total)
The motivation for the Bears is much murkier. An Eagles loss or a Bears win locks them into the #2 seed in the NFC, and Philadelphia is resting key starters — though they remain favored over the Commanders. On the other hand, Chicago coach Ben Johnson was blown out 52-21 by his former team in Week 2 and would certainly love to get his revenge.
The Bears offense and Williams have both come a long way since then. While they remain a run-first team, Williams has been productive when given the opportunity, which will likely be the case again this week. Detroit’s offense is potent enough to keep things close, which will keep Williams and the Bears throwing the ball.
Plus, the Lions defense is in shambles. They’re without most of their original starting defensive backfield and have allowed more than 30 points per game during their three-game losing streak despite facing the Steelers and Vikings in two of those games. Williams and the Bears are a much tougher offense and should be able to have their way with the Lions defense.
He trails only Lawrence in Pts/Sal projection and also has some fairly easy stacking and bring-back options, making him a strong GPP centerpiece.
Quick Hits
Drake Maye ($7,100): New England could get the all-important one seed with a win and a Broncos loss and also needs a win to hang on to the #2 seed barring a Jaguars loss. That should be enough to keep Maye in the game, barring both a Jaguars loss and the Broncos being way up in their game. Maye is the MVP frontrunner and gets to face a bad Dolphins defense, giving him plenty of upside, while his high salary also limits his likely ownership.
Jaxson Dart ($5,700): The Giants have nothing to play for, but that’s been the case for most of the season. They’ll likely use this game to continue to build experience for Dart, who has topped 20 DraftKings points in six of his 11 starts. They’re facing the Cowboys, who have allowed the most fantasy points to QBs this season, so I want some exposure in a great matchup.
Tyler Shough ($5,300): Shough has come on strong in the second half of the season, leading the Saints to their current four-game winning streak and looking like their potential long-term solution at QB. They seem more interested in getting reps for their young core than tanking for a draft pick, so expect him to be active all game in a strong matchup against the Falcons.
Malik Willis ($5,000): With Green Bay’s playoff seeding set, they’ll be resting Jordan Love in Week 18. The question is whether they go with Willis at QB or 3rd-stringer Clayton Tune ($4,000) against the Vikings. If it’s Willis, he’s an interesting play thanks to his massive rushing upside, but you’ll have to stay up on the news heading into the weekend.
Tanner McKee ($4,500): McKee is taking over for Jalen Hurts in Week 18 as the Eagles rest their starters. He’s extremely cheap in a great matchup with the Commanders, though the concern is that Philadelphia also rests their key offensive weapons. Can the Eagles’ backups put up points against a bad defense? They’re favored by four, so they have a chance, and I’ll have some light exposure to the Philadelphia B Team stacks this weekend.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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