With games on Christmas and Saturday, we have just 9 games on the main slate in Week 17 starting at 1:00 p.m. ET.
This season is unique in that there’s very little to be decided in terms of playoff positioning, so many of the teams on the slate have nothing left to play for. Handicapping motivations and workloads thus becomes the key to success this week.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Drake Maye ($6,800) New England Patriots (-13.5) at New York Jets (42.5 Total)
The nice thing about rostering Patriots players this week is that we can be confident they’re playing all out to win. New England is half a game back of the Broncos, who won on Thursday, for the #1 seed in the AFC and the all-important first-round bye. The other nice thing is that they’re playing the Jets, who rank 26th in points allowed to QBs. They also rank 30th in total points allowed, so points should be easy to come by for the Patriots and Maye.
The concern, of course, is the extremely wide spread. New England is favored by about two touchdowns, so we probably see slightly less passing, and also considerably fewer designed runs for Maye. The Patriots rank fourth in PROE on the season so he’ll have his opportunities, but those factors limit his ceiling somewhat.
For that reason, I view Maye as a solid cash game option with a very strong floor, but his ceiling is tied to somebody from the Jets doing enough to keep pace. The Jets have a few potential options — albeit all very thing — but I’ll include at least one of them in every lineup built around Maye. Our projections reflect this as well, with Maye leading the median category but lagging behind Joe Burrow in ceiling.
Value: Trevor Lawrence ($6,100) Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) at Indianapolis Colts (48.5 Total)
The Jaguars need one more win to clinch the AFC South, and still have an outside shot at the one seed in the AFC, so they’re another team likely to play this game at full strength. They’re taking on a solidly mediocre Colts defense on the road, as solid favorites with one of the highest team totals on the slate.
That’s a fairly good sign for Lawrence, who has played some of the best football of his life over the last six or so weeks. He’s scored 78 DraftKings points over the last two games, despite one of those coming against the Broncos much tougher defense (plus that game was outside in Denver), so he should be able to keep the ball rolling in a easier situation this week.
As with Maye, the best case scenario is the Colts doing enough to keep this game close, but it’s much easier to see how that happens than it is for the Jets. That, plus his slate-leading Pts/Sal projection, makes Lawrence my favorite cash game option. There’s also plenty of interesting ways to stack him this week, which makes him a solid GPP play as well.
Quick Hits
Josh Allen ($7,000): Buffalo can still catch the Patriots for the AFC East title, but they need to win out to do so. They’ve got a big ask this week as they host the Eagles, so we could see Allen go Superman mode and attempt to carry the team this week. The weather in Buffalo could make this one ugly, but that tends to be overblown more often than not, so I’ll gladly roster Allen at low single-digit ownership.
Joe Burrow ($6,500): Burrow has a higher ceiling projection than Maye and a cheaper price tag, plus an extremely concentrated passing attack that makes him easy to stack. He’s also facing the Cardinals in a meaningless game for both teams. If this game meant more he would be the best GPP play at the position by a long shot. He still might be, but I’d exercise some caution based on the situation.
Jacoby Brissett ($5,700): Brissett is facing Burrow and the Bengals, who’ve been the worst defense in the league by a long shot in most categories. Cincinnati is especially bad against tight ends, which makes this especially juicy for the Cardinals since their leading receiver is a tight end. Brissett is tied with Lawrence for the Pts/Sal lead and is also a great GPP play — assuming the Cardinals don’t sit some of their skill position players for part of the game.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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