With bye weeks done for the year, we have a 13-game main slate in Week 15 starting at 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Matthew Stafford ($7,000) Los Angeles Rams (-6) vs. Detroit Lions (55 Total)
It would be hard to imagine a better situation for Stafford to take on his former team than the one he finds himself in on Sunday. The Lions defense seems to lose another starter every week, with the (incomplete) list of their missing defensive pieces including both starting safeties and two cornerbacks. That’s effectively the entire defensive backfield.
In their last three games, the Lions have allowed over 100 total points and an average of 28 points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Stafford is a far better player than anyone they faced during that span (with apologies to Dak Prescott), with a talented wide receiver duo. Plus, the Rams rank third in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) on the season, so the volume will likely be there as well.
What really puts this matchup over the top for Stafford is the Lions offense. Detroit is the NFL’s #1 scoring offense and will almost certainly do enough to keep the Rams aggressive. I would expect Sean McVay to keep his foot on the gas even with a lead, knowing that the Lions are able to come back in a hurry if they leave the door open.
All of which makes Stafford a great play for any contest type, with fairly obvious stacking and bring-back partners as well. He leads our models in median and ceiling projections among QBs.
Value: Jaxson Dart ($5,600) New York Giants (-2.5) vs. Washington Commanders (46.5 Total)
We have a slew of QBs in the $5K range with virtually identical Pts/Sal projections, all of whom are viable cash game options. Dart is my favorite of that group, in part thanks to the matchup. He’s facing a Commanders team that’s allowed the fifth-most points to QBs this season, with the Giants as slight home favorites.
He also brings more upside than the rest of the players in his price range thanks to his rushing ability. Before leaving Week 11 with a concussion, he had seven rushing touchdowns in as many starts. While he ran the ball just four times last week, I expect that to pick up again as he moves further from his injury.
On this week’s Fantasy Flex podcast, NFL projection experts Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon discussed why Dart was their favorite DFS QB of the week:
I know better than to fade those two, so I’ll have plenty of Dart this weekend.
Quick Hits
Josh Allen ($7,500): Allen trails only Stafford for the lead in median and ceiling projections this week, as he takes on the Patriots in what should be a high-scoring game. With the Bills favored by just one and a half points, this is one of the likelier Josh Allen blow-up game spots, and he’s projecting for very low ownership. His likeliest outcome is a solid, but not week-winning score in the mid 20s — but he’s always a threat to go for 40+.
Lamar Jackson ($6,400): The lack of rushing production from Jackson (two touchdowns this season) as he’s dealt with injuries has limited his value as a fantasy performer. That might be changing, as he ran for the most yards (43) since his injury last week, while also scoring a touchdown. Now he gets an ideal matchup against the Bengals and the cheapest price tag he’s had in years, making this the ideal buy-low spot on the two-time MVP.
Jared Goff ($6,100): If building lineups around Rams/Lions, a sneaky approach is to roster Goff at QB instead of Stafford. Since Stafford’s targets are heavily concentrated on just two receivers, you can roster Goff with those two wideouts and lock in the bulk of the games’ passing production, plus add an additional Lion (or two) to correlate with Goff.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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