Sunday comes with a 10-game main slate starting at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Since I’m skipping my usual Trenches Report article this week, I’m also including my table of offensive line matchups for the slate here, which I will reference at various points throughout the article.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Josh Allen ($7,500) Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (45.5 Total)
What makes this slate unique is the complete lack of (on paper) high-scoring games. With most of the league’s best offenses and worst defenses playing on Thursday or Friday, not a single game on Sunday has a total above 45.5 points.
That’s an interesting factor when it comes to rostering Allen, who I’ve often shied away from due to his lack of true ceiling relative to his price tag. In most weeks, we can be reasonably certain that a 30+ point quarterback score will emerge, but that’s not necessarily true this week. We have Allen with a median score of 22.9 points and no other QB over 20, so there’s a shot that his typical mid-20s score would actually be enough in GPPs.
Allen has landed between 21 and 29 DraftKings points in six of the Bills’ 11 games this week and is very likely to do so again in this matchup. His Bills are slight favorites against a team that ranks near the middle of the pack in DVOA against the pass, overall points allowed, and pace of play.
Allen is $500 more expensive than any other QB, but given his position-leading median and ceiling projection, it could be a price worth paying. He’s not a priority for me, but I’ll have at least some exposure to him in GPPs this week.
Value: Tyrod Taylor ($4,300) New York Jets (+2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (39.5 Total)
The top five QBs in Pts/Sal projection this week are all priced below $5,000, and there are a total of nine QBs in that range on the slate. The slight leader in Pts/Sal projection is Taylor, who has taken over the Jets’ starting role from Justin Fields but is still priced like a backup.
Taylor is effectively a career backup QB at this point and has been a solid veteran presence in relief for a handful of teams across his career. This is admittedly one of the tougher scenarios to step into, as the Jets are thin at wide receiver and have the 32nd-ranked offensive line (by adjusted sack rate) in the league — though the latter stat is potentially a product of Fields holding the ball too long more than poor line play. Though as a counterpoint to the counterpoint, Taylor has taken seven sacks in his two starts for the Jets this season.
Either way, he’s cheap and taking on a mediocre Falcons defense, although Atlanta has a solid pass rush and is a bit of a run funnel. Taylor is very unlikely to win you a GPP, but if he puts up the 15 or so points we have him projected for, he’d be a solid cash game option.
Quick Hits
Matthew Stafford ($7,000): Stafford and the Rams have the highest implied total on the slate and rank second in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) on the season. While most teams have chosen to run the ball heavily on the Panthers, the Rams are relatively committed to the passing game and have an extremely concentrated attack. That makes Stafford doubles a very interesting GPP build that I will certainly have some exposure to.
Justin Herbert ($6,500): Herbert is the last of the high-priced QBs on the slate, with a similar thesis as his cross-town counterpart Stafford. The Chargers rank fourth in PROE, are implied for the third-most points on the slate, and are taking on a below-average Raiders defense. Plus, there’s some optimism around the Chargers offensive line coming off their bye week, as they should be fully healthy in Week 13. I’ll have some exposure to him and his top pass catchers as well.
Cam Ward ($4,600): Ward (no relation) might actually be my favorite salary-saver for cash games, largely thanks to a matchup with the Jaguars. Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-most points to QBs, and the Titans rookie just put up a career-high 23.94 DraftKings points against a much tougher Seahawks defense. Maybe that was a fluke, or maybe the #1 overall pick has turned a corner and could be in for a breakout.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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