With three games on Thanksgiving and one on Black Friday (for some reason), we’re down to a 10-game Week 13 main slate on DraftKings. We’ve got the usual 1:00 p.m. ET lock time for this one.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Jalen Hurts ($7,700) Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at Baltimore Ravens (51 Total)
The top two quarterbacks on the board both come from the Eagles-Ravens game, which features the highest total on the slate at 51 points. Our median projections have Lamar Jackson ($8,000) about half of a point ahead of Hurts, but I’d rather save the salary for Hurts if spending up at the position myself.
There are two reasons for that. The first is the likely pass volume differential from the Eagles. With Philly as an underdog, that increases their expected throw rate. Both teams have roughly equal Pass Rate Over Expectation values offensively — but Baltimore has faced the highest opponent PROE in the league by a massive margin.
Reason number two is the “tush push.” Hurts has massive rushing touchdown equity, as he almost always gets his number called when the Eagles are at the goal line. His 11 rushing touchdowns are more than double that of any other quarterback in the league (unless you count Taysom Hill as a QB, which you shouldn’t).
While Jackson can also contribute heavily with his legs — he averages about 10 more rushing yards than Hurts — the goal line in Baltimore belongs to Derrick Henry. Jackson’s rushing production gives him a solid floor — while Hurts has a true ceiling with his legs. Since Hurts should also have more passing volume, it’s hard to justify paying more for Jackson. At this price tag, we need a huge score to have a shot in GPPS.
Both are projecting for very low ownership thanks to the value plays at the position, so I’ll want exposure to each of them.
Value: Anthony Richardson ($5,500) Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at New England Patriots (42.5 Total)
Last week looked like it was shaping up to be a breakout game for Richardson after he ran for 35 yards on the Colts’ opening drive against the Lions and completed two of three passes for 20 more yards. It slowed down considerably after that for Richardson and the Colts, who failed to score after two first-half field goals.
That was against the #2 ranked defense by DVOA in the NFL. Now they draw the Patriots — who check in at 30th. Indy converting even one of their drives into a touchdown would’ve led to a much better stat line for Richardson last week, and two or more would’ve made him a slate winner.
The Colts’ 22.5-point total isn’t massive here, but it’s enough that we should expect at least a score or two from the quarterback. It’s a good spot for him on the ground as well since the Patriots play man defense at the second-highest rate in the league. Rushing QBs tend to pick up more yardage against man coverage than zone. Richardson’s 61 rushing yards against the Lions was his season high — and Detroit is the only team to play more man than the Patriots.
Richardson leads the slate in Pts/Sal projection at any position and is a cash game must. He’s a solid GPP play as well — though figuring out how to build around him is tricky.
Quick Hits
Bryce Young ($4,700): Bryce Young’s 2024 mirrors that of Richardson’s. Both 2023 first-round picks were benched in favor of veteran options before their team decided to give them a real look in the second half of the season. Like Richardson, Young has performed better in his second stint as a starter. He nearly upset the Chiefs last week and now gets a better matchup against a Bucs team that’s allowed a positive 5.0 Opponent Plus/Minus to QBs this year. That’s the highest mark on the slate. He’s store-brand Richardson this week, with discounts in both ownership projection and salary.
Justin Herbert ($5,600): After writing up Richardson as the top value play on the slate, lines moved enough to push Justin Herbert just past him in the Pts/Sal rankings. Herbert has a considerably tighter range of outcomes than Richardson but also much less downside risk and a slightly better matchup. I personally prefer Richardson’s upside even in cash games, but Herbert makes a lot of sense as well with a slightly better total.
Jayden Daniels ($7,200): There’s been a bit of a rookie wall for Daniels this season. After leading the Commanders to a 7-2 record with six 20-point DraftKings scores, Washington has now lost three in a row. Daniels had a good game last week, throwing for two touchdowns and running for a third against the Cowboys. He’ll need to do it through the air against a pass-funnel Titans team that ranks 16th in DVOA against the pass but fifth against the run. He trails only Jackson and Hurts in median projection at a considerably cheaper price.
CJ Stroud ($6,400): Stroud and the Texans are taking on the Jaguars for the second time this season. Jacksonville has allowed six quarterbacks to top 26 DraftKings points in 11 games, including Stroud in the first meeting. Teams can do whatever they want against the Jaguars, who rank dead last in overall DVOA and against the pass. With Houston only favored by a field goal, that could mean a heavy dose of the passing attack. Stroud also makes for some obvious — if expensive — stacks with two primary wideouts, so he’ll be in my GPP pool.
Offensive Line Matchup Projections:
Each week, I write an article breaking down the line play for the week’s slate from a DFS perspective. Check the linked article for a deeper dive into what the numbers mean. Here’s the data table for the main slate since we skipped the article in Week 13:
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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