NFL DFS Picks: Week 10 Main Slate DraftKings Breakdown

We have the typical 10 games to choose from in Week 10, with the slate starting at the usual 1:00 p.m. ET.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud: Josh Allen ($7,000) Buffalo Bills (-9.5) at Miami Dolphins (50 Total)

This is the classic spot for Josh Allen, where he’s projecting very well in what should be a solid matchup — but perhaps not well enough to help you win any GPPs.

We’ve seen this issue time and time again with Allen. He has the ability to go off for massive DFS scores when needed but isn’t given the opportunity to do so in games the Bills control easily. As the most expensive QB on the slate this week (and most weeks), a “good” game isn’t really enough; he needs to push for 30+ DraftKings points to be of much good in tournaments. He’s done that just once this season — in the Bills’ one-point win over the Ravens.

In the Bills’ other wins, he’s finished between 23 and 28 points four times, with one letdowngame of 11.82 in a blowout over the Jets. With the Bills favored by 9.5 against the tanking Dolphins, his likeliest outcome is another game in the mid-20s.

That would still make him a solid cash game play and explains why he’s near the top of our Pts/Sal projections along with being the clear leader in median and ceiling. To hit that ceiling, he’ll need some help from the Dolphins offense, though, so I’d only roster him in GPPs with at least one, but ideally two, Miami bring-backs.

Value: Jacoby Brissett ($4,600) Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) at Seattle Seahawks (45 Total)

I’m baffled that DraftKings hasn’t raised the salary on Brissett, considering this will be his fourth straight start for the Cardinals in relief of Kyler Murray. More importantly, he’s topped 20 DraftKings points in each of his three prior outings, with the caveat that two of those came against the league’s two worst defenses in the Bengals and Cowboys.

However, he was fine against the solid defense of the Colts, throwing for 320 yards and two touchdowns. Seattle is a tougher opponent than that, but still leave room for some optimism around Brissett. Especially since his sub-$5,000 salary means he doesn’t even need to hit 20 points to help your lineup, particularly in cash games.

Getting to 15 or so would be more than enough for cash games, and we have him projected considerably better than that. The game script should force Arizona to stay aggressive offensively, and he has two talented pass catchers in receivers Marvin Harrison and Trey McBride. Both players can make a lot happen after the catch as well, allowing Brissett to pick up some easy yardage.

While I’m not banking on him topping 20 points for a fourth straight week, he’s our Pts/Sal projection leader despite projecting a few points shy of that. That makes him a borderline lock for cash games.

Quick Hits

Lamar Jackson ($6,800): Like Allen, Jackson probably needs a close game to achieve a true ceiling outcome. He’s more likely to get one against the Vikings than Allen is, especially with how well Minnesota’s offense performed against the Lions last week. Jackson is also projecting for much lower ownership, making him my preferred premium QB for tournaments.

Caleb Williams ($6,000): Williams finally had his breakout fantasy game last week, throwing for three touchdowns and catching another in the Bears’ shootout win over the Bengals. This week’s matchup with the Giants is slightly tougher, but the G-men rank 28th in defensive DVOA, so it’s not a situation to avoid, either. Rostering him feels like chasing last week’s best score, but at sub-5% projected ownership, I’ll have some exposure.

Jared Goff ($5,900): This is the first time all season Goff is priced under $6,000, as the Lions look to rebound from a 24-27 loss to the Vikings last week. In the Dan Campbell era they’ve won 11 straight following a loss, with some blowout victories along the way. That could be in the cards here, so I want some exposure to Goff at his budget price.

JJ McCarthy ($4,900): McCarthy is still $4,900 this week after leading the Vikings to victory over the Lions in Week 10. Sure, he threw for less than 150 yards, but that came against a Detroit defense that ranks second in DVOA against the pass. Now he gets the Ravens, who rank 21st in DVOA and 25th in points allowed to QBs.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks