We have the traditional three-game Thanksgiving slate on DraftKings with some big prize pools, including a $5 entry Millionaire Maker contest.
The unique thing about the Thanksgiving slate is that each game runs consecutively, so late swaps are of utmost importance. This is particularly true for cash games, where the limited player pool means figuring out the popular build is fairly easy.
Massive GPPs like the millionaire maker reduce the need for pivots — if you miss out on a star performance in the early game, there’s no real way to catch up — but there’s still some value in being able to adjust on the fly, especially in smaller contests.
As such, my advice as always is to limit your play and avoid cash games if you’re unable to swap your lineups during the day, as you’d be at a massive disadvantage against players who aren’t wasting the day spending time with their loved ones.
Since I’m skipping my usual Trenches Report article this week, I’m also including my table of offensive line matchups for the slate here, which I will reference at various points throughout the article.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud/Value: Patrick Mahomes ($6,500) Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys (52.5 Total)
In what should be a high-scoring Thanksgiving slate, we have two of the league’s best quarterbacks taking on the league’s two worst defenses in both total scoring and fantasy points allowed to QBs. Of the two, we have a slightly stronger projection on Patrick Mahomes, who conveniently comes in with a cheaper price tag as well.
That makes Mahomes the best QB play on the slate, and he leads our median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projections in a dream matchup against the Cowboys. Mahomes and the Chiefs offense have true blowup potential against a Dallas team that’s both bad defensively and good offensively and thus should be able to force the Chiefs into staying aggressive. Dallas ranks 31st in points per game defensively and fourth in points scored, with this game being played indoors in Dallas.
Mahomes’ best games this season have come against high-powered offenses, and the Chiefs have been aggressive regardless of game script. With the Chiefs extremely thin at running back, they’ve also shifted heavily to the passing attack, with Mahomes attempting more than 91 passes over the past two weeks. That hasn’t turned into huge fantasy scores, but those games were against much tougher defenses.
A Thanksgiving Day matchup with the Cowboys might be the perfect intersection of volume and efficiency for Mahomes and the Chiefs. The tight salary structure on Thanksgiving makes his $6,500 price tag annoying, but since he’s only $1,000 more than the cheapest QB on the slate, it might be worth finding the savings.
Quick Hits
Lamar Jackson ($6,800): Jackson is the other star quarterback with a dream matchup, as he and the Ravens are favored by seven over the league’s worst defensive team, Cincinnati. While Jackson and the Ravens have the highest team total on the slate, the problem is the Bengals are unlikely to push the pace enough to force a pass-heavy game script against a tough Ravens defense. Especially with one of their star wide receivers, Tee Higgins, already ruled out. That is, unless you believe the return of Joe Burrow is enough to revitalize the offense. I’m not so sure considering how long he’s been out and the lack of Higgins, but it’s not the craziest idea.
Dak Prescott ($6,300): With the emergence of George Pickens as an elite option at WR giving Prescott two dangerous receiving threats, he’s been incredibly productive in recent weeks. Dallas has been a top-10 or so pass rate over expectation (PROE) offense this season and, as slight underdogs, should be forced to air it out often. The problem with playing Prescott is that he’s just $200 cheaper than Mahomes on a team implied for four fewer points. However, he’s an excellent ownership-based pivot.
Joe Burrow ($6,000): As alluded to above, I have my doubts about Burrow against a solid Ravens defense and down one of his top receivers, especially since he hasn’t played since Week 2. On the other hand, he was close to being ready last week, so he should be at full strength, and the Bengals will almost certainly have to air it out. He’s also not that much cheaper than Mahomes, though, with higher ownership projections than Prescott.
Jared Goff ($5,800): We’re starting to get to the point where we’re getting a significant salary discount, and the Lions have cranked up their passing rate since Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties in Week 10 (Game 9 in the below chart):
They’re slight home favorites against the Packers, but the game script could easily force some aggression out of their concentrated offense, which makes stacking fairly easy.
Jordan Love ($5,500): Love has hit a real rough patch over the past month or so, but a dome game against a Lions defense that will be missing between 1 and 3 of their defensive back starters is a perfect get-right spot. Detroit just allowed over 35 DraftKings points to Jameis Winston, so Love could certainly approach that number — and he’s the cheapest QB on the slate. Stacking the Lions’ two top options against Love, who has a much more spread-out target tree, might be my favorite contrarian GPP approach.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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