NFL Week 13 wraps up with a Monday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Studs
Before we talk about any of the players in this game, we have to talk about the weather. The forecast in Buffalo is not promising, calling for 20+ mile per hour winds and sub-freezing temperatures. That’s had a huge impact on the Vegas total, which has dropped to just 41.0. The Bills are listed as slight three-point favorites, but the conditions seem like a better fit for the Patriots.
The quarterbacks could be particularly impacted by the conditions. Quarterbacks have historically posted an average Plus/Minus of -1.65 on DraftKings in games with winds of at least 15 miles per hour (per the Trends tool).
However, Josh Allen has held his own in poor-weather games. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +0.98 in eight games with winds of at least 15 miles per hour, which is far better than the baseline. He’s averaged 21.58 DraftKings points in those contests, which would be enough to pay off his current salary. Even if the conditions will make it tough to throw, Allen is capable of picking up some fantasy points with his legs.
