Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.
This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on these games into lineups.
Each week I’ll go over my favorite DFS angle for the given week and go over some of our Lineup Optimizer settings that are worth considering.
Now, let’s get to it!
My Favorite Week 4 NFL DFS Angle
I’m not sure what is going on, but I see consensus top-two pick Jonathan Taylor projected around the industry somewhere below 15% and barely in the top 10 most popular running backs on a relatively thin slate. This is all despite Taylor playing more snaps than he was last year AND playing at home on the fast track indoors against a Titans team giving up over six yards per carry to start the season.
I am absolutely going to load up on Taylor in this spot and hope that touchdown regression starts to swing back in favor. I just hope these projections are accurate and he doesn’t get steamed leading up to kickoff.
Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider
Below are the rules to consider for Sunday. For more context on optimizer rules or the Showdown format in general, check out my NFL Showdown Primer.
Minimum salary cap: 99.6%. Leaving more than this causes you to lose significant win equity.
Flex positions: WR, RB
Optimal tournament construction includes stacking your quarterback with at least one, but usually two, pass-catcher(s) from the same team and one pass-catcher from the opposing team.
A mobile quarterback with a big rushing game is more likely to only need one teammate paired. These settings can be accomplished through rules in the “Position” tab or through the Player Correlations tab for more control.
Shout out to Scott Barrett who posted an incredible stat on Twitter regarding elite tight end usage this year. One of Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews have appeared in top 50 Millionaire Maker lineups over 75% of the time in each of the first three weeks. I have admittedly been leaving points on the table to start the season by not proactively targeting these guys.
A Josh Allen stack with Mark Andrews coming back is an expensive way to start a lineup, but the upside is incredible on a week where we have some value at running back and wide receiver.
Another correlation I love this week:
You want to avoid pairings like this in GPPs to assure your ceiling isn’t capped. The Player Groups tab gives you more control over the process, but the Position tab can be used to completely group out running back paired with a wide receiver from the same team.
Winning GPP lineups typically use 2-3 players that are less than 10% owned. The Lineup Optimizer allows you to quickly accomplish this.