Week 7 presents a 10-game main slate on DraftKings on Sunday. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 7.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Dak Prescott ($6,500) + CeeDee Lamb ($7,500) + Zach Ertz ($3,800)
The Cowboys and Commanders go head-to-head this Sunday for an NFC East showdown in Dallas and this game’s 54.5-point total is the largest the NFL has seen this season. This game’s total is the highest on the slate by six points and while most will be gravitating towards Jayden Daniels in this contest, Prescott has similar upside this week and he is expected to come with about a third of the ownership of Daniels on DraftKings, according to our projections.
Prescott is playing some of the best football of his career this season. The veteran ranks second in passing yards (1,617), second in passing touchdowns (13) and second in quarterback rating (79.2). Prescott has scored at least 26 DraftKings points in three of his six starts this season and this is an outstanding matchup with the Commanders giving up the third-most yards per pass this season (7.6). This game being at home in Dallas is also terrific news for Prescott. The 32-year-old is nearly 6.0 DraftKings PPG better at home than on the road for his career and Prescott has amassed 29.2 DraftKings PPG in the last 10 games he has started and completed in Dallas.
Lamb has missed three games in a row with a sprained ankle, but he returned to practice this week and will play Sunday without limitations. Before getting injured in Week 3 and only playing seven snaps in that contest, Lamb topped 20 DraftKings points the first two games of the season and he led the Cowboys with a 28.2% target share in those games, including six targets over 20 yards. Washington has yielded the second-most receptions over 15 yards this season (39) and Lamb should dominate in his return Sunday. Outside of Jonathan Taylor, Lamb brings the highest ceiling on the slate among skill players and he is a steal at this season-low $7,500 salary, which is simply a result of Lamb being sidelined as of late.
With this NFC East matchup carrying the highest total of the season and the Cowboys giving up the second-most yards per pass this season (7.8), having a bring-back play for Dallas stacks is a must and Ertz stands out at his cheap $3,800 price tag. Both Deebo Samuel (heel) and Terry McLaurin (quad) are banged up right now and missed practice Thursday. At least one of these receivers is likely to play Sunday, but these players dealing with injuries should result in extra usage for Ertz, who has been reliable this season.
The veteran is on the heels of a 16.3 DraftKings point showing vs. the Bears, which is the third time he has scored double-digit FPTS in six games this season. While running a route on 80% of his team’s dropbacks, Ertz is handling a 17.1% target share this season – including three red-zone targets – and that rate very well could be over 20% this week with Samuel and McLaurin less than 100%. Dallas is allowing the fourth-most catches to tight ends (38) and Ertz could approach 20 DraftKings points in this spot.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Kimani Vidal ($5,500)
Running back is deep with appealing options this week, and Vidal is an excellent option that is likely to get overlooked, with Taylor, Breece Hall, and Quinshon Judkins soaking up most of the ownership at the position. In the Chargers’ first game after placing Omarion Hampton (foot) on IR, Vidal was the team’s featured back this past Sunday vs. the Dolphins and he went off for 25.8 FPTS in the win for Los Angeles.
Vidal rushed 18 times for 124 yards and he hauled in three of his four targets for 14 yards and a touchdown. For the week, Vidal finished fourth in YPC (6.8) and ninth in YAC (62). Usage-wise, the 24-year-old logged 67.2% of the snaps and handled 75% of the running back carries for the Chargers, including six red-zone carries. In the passing game, Vidal ran a route on 54% of his team’s dropbacks and he saw a target on 19% of those routes, including two red-zone targets.
This is an elite workload that by no means is reflected in Vidal’s $5,500 salary and he should remain Los Angeles’ lead back for this Sunday’s marquee matchup with the Colts. This game’s total is the second-highest on the slate (48.5 points) and the Chargers carry a 25-point implied team total as a 1.5-point home favorite for this matchup. Vidal should see 20+ touches in this optimal setting and destroy his low price tag, possibly with another performance over 20 DraftKings points. This season, Vidal is generating a strong 1.1 DraftKings points per touch.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Rome Odunze ($6,600)
Coming off a season-low 5.2 DraftKings points vs. the Commanders, Odunze shouldn’t be popular this week and the receiver has huge upside vs. the Saints. While Oduzne was a letdown last week, he is still averaging 20.8 DraftKings PPG this season as the Bears’ clear No. 1 receiver.
The second-year wideout is leading Chicago with a 25% target share – including six red-zone targets – and a 94% route rate. Odunze also owns a strong 13.2 aDOT and he has seen 11 targets over 20 yards in just five games, which ranks fifth among all skill players.
Odunze now meets a New Orleans defense that is allowing the seventh-most yards per pass (7.2) and the seventh-highest completion percentage this season (69.5%). The Bears present the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate (25.5 points) and Odunze should feast in this spot.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Harold Fannin Jr. ($3,900)
After posting 11.3 DraftKings points vs. the Vikings in Week 5, Fannin Jr. bested himself with 15.1 DraftKings points vs. the Steelers in Week 6. In that latter contest, the rookie racked up 10 targets, as he saw a target on 22% of his routes while running a route on 78% of his team’s dropbacks.
All three of these numbers set career highs for Fannin Jr. and the increased usage was a direct result of fellow Browns tight end David Njoku hurting his knee and logging a season-low 43.9% of the snaps. Plus, Cedric Tillman (hamstring) missed his second game in a row after being placed on IR.
Njoku and Tillman have accounted for 25% of the Browns’ targets this season and Njoku is likely to join Tillman on the sidelines this week, as Njoku has yet to practice this week as of Thursday due to his knee injury.
Fannin Jr. should continue to see heavy usage this Sunday with Njoku and Tillman absent, and Fannin Jr. is in a beautiful spot vs. the Dolphins, who are yielding the third-most yards per pass (7.6) and third-most receiving yards to tight ends this season (410). Fannin Jr. setting a new career high in DraftKings points for the second week in a row is very possible in this near-perfect situation, and last but not least, our projections are slating him for single-digit ownership on DraftKings, making him one of the best cheap plays on the board.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
Pictured: Kimani Vidal
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
