Week 6 presents a 10-game main slate on DraftKings on Sunday. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 6.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Justin Herbert ($6,300) + Ladd McConkey ($5,700) + Keenan Allen ($5,600) + Jaylen Waddle ($6,100)
The Chargers have struggled as of late, dropping two games in a row, but this matchup with the Dolphins is exactly what the doctor ordered for Los Angeles to get back on track. Miami is the worst-graded defense on PFF and the Dolphins are giving up the second-most yards per pass this season (7.8). The Chargers carry a healthy 24-point implied team total and this ranks second in pass rate over expectation. They should heavily rely on their passing game with Omarion Hampton (foot) sidelined.
Herbert is averaging just 6.9 yards per attempt this season, but given the Chargers’ pass-first attack, he ranks eighth in passing yards (1,339) and he has thrown eight touchdowns to four picks. Herbert has also been decently active as a rusher, averaging 4.6 carries per game. The quarterback is scoring 19.9 DraftKings PPG this season and with Los Angeles in this ultimate matchup vs. the Dolphins, Herbert has the best ceiling on the slate among quarterbacks in our projections.
Double stacking Herbert makes a ton of sense in this beautiful spot and with Quentin Johnston limited at practice this week with a hamstring injury, stacking Herbert with McConkey and Allen is the right move. This season, these two wideouts are handling 25.1% and 19.4% target shares, respectively. Allen is leading the team with seven redzone targets and while McConkey has had a down season by his standards, he is trending up, after catching five of his seven targets for 39 yards and a touchdown last week vs. the Commanders, resulting in a season-best 14.9 DraftKings points.
While the Chargers have been a stout defense this season, allowing the third-fewest yards per pass (5.6), Deebo Samuel just exposed them for 22.8 DraftKings points last Sunday, and Waddle is extremely underpriced for his role with Tyreek Hill (leg) out for the season, making Waddle the perfect bring-back play for Herbert stacks. With Hill missing his first game of the season last week, Waddle caught six of his season-high nine targets for 110 yards and a touchdown vs. the Panthers. Waddle has now played two career games without Hill and in those contests, Waddle is leading Miami with 28.6 DraftKings PPG, a huge 30.5% target share, a 12.4 aDOT and three targets over 20 yards. Waddle’s $6,100 salary for this week by no means reflects his upside, which is near 30 DraftKings points.
While Herbert and Waddle are expected to be popular plays, McConkey and Allen are forecasted for single-digit ownership according to our projections, so this four-player game stack should be used by very few DFS players this Sunday.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Travis Etienne ($5,900)
With many chalky running back plays priced around Etienne, such as Rico Dowdle and Rachaad White, Etienne is likely to get overlooked – he is slated to be around 7% owned according to our projections – and the back is an appealing, contrarian way to attack this likely shootout between the Jaguars and Seahawks. This contest is tied for the second-highest total on the slate (47.5 points) and Jacksonville carries a 24.5-point implied team total as a 1.5-point favorite for this tilt.
Averaging 15.1 DraftKings PPG, Etienne is the No. 12 scoring running back this season. The veteran ranks fifth in yards per carry (6.3) and seventh in yards after contact among running backs (161). Etienne’s role has been strong as the Jaguars’ featured back, with him logging 60.1% of the snaps and averaging 15.4 carries per game, which is 70% of the team’s running back carries. Etienne has seen 13 redzone carries and as a receiver, Etienne is running a route on 40% of his team’s dropbacks and he has seen a target on 16% of those routes, including four redzone targets.
Seattle is giving up the second-fewest yards per rush this season (3.3), but the Seahawks have been very susceptible to pass-catching backs, allowing the most catches (36) and receiving yards to the position (292). Etienne producing over 100 scrimmage yards and finding the paydirt at least once in this spot is a possibility and he is an excellent gamble for GPPs.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Ryan Flournoy ($3,600)
With CeeDee Lamb (ankle) and KaVonte Turpin (foot) both unable to practice this week as of Thursday, these two wideouts are likely to miss their second straight game, opening the door for Flournoy to see an expanded role again for the Cowboys. With Lamb and Turpin inactive last week vs. the Jets, Flournoy had the best game of his young career, hauling in six of his nine targets for 114 yards. The second-year wideout finished with 21.4 DraftKings points, making him the No. 12 scoring receiver for Week 5.
Flournoy saw a huge 32.1% target share – which tied Jake Ferguson for the highest for Dallas – while running a route on 64% of his team’s dropbacks. Flournoy also garnered one target over 20 yards and his aDOT was at a solid 9.6.
With Flournoy doing all this damage in a 15-point win for Dallas, he should continue to see a large role this Sunday vs. the Panthers. Carolina’s defense has been average this season, giving up the 14th-most yards per pass (6.6), but this should be a very fantasy-friendly environment. This contest carries the highest total on the slate (49.5 points) and the Cowboys’ implied team total is the third-largest on the board (26.5 points). Flournoy brings terrific upside relative to his near-minimum $3,600 salary in this spot and our projections are slating him to be only around 7% owned on DraftKings.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Jake Tonges ($3,700)
Tonges has scored 14.8 and 17.1 DraftKings points in his last two starts, and in that latter contest, the tight end caught seven of his 11 targets for 41 yards and a touchdown vs. the Rams. In this contest, George Kittle (hamstring), Juan Jennings (ankle/ribs) and Ricky Pearsall (knee) were all sidelined for the 49ers, resulting in a 22.9% target share – including two redzone targets – for Tonges.
This Sunday, Tonges should be in a very similar situation. Kittle has been ruled out and Pearsall is expected to be inactive as well. After getting a limited practice in on Thursday, Jennings has a chance to play, but even if he is active, Tonges should continue to see heavy volume as one of San Francisco’s main pass catchers.
The 26-year-old is in a plus spot, facing the Buccaneers, who are allowing the 12th-most yards per pass (6.8) and sixth-highest completion percentage to tight ends this season (81.8%). This game’s total is tied for the second-highest on the slate (47.5 points) and the 49ers could be forced to air it out as three-point road underdogs. Tonges is an elite value play in this situation who has a ceiling near 20 DraftKings points and our projections are slating him for single-digit ownership on DraftKings, as paying up at tight end is expected to be a popular strategy for this slate.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
Pictured: Travis Etienne
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
