Sunday’s main slate for Week 4 features 13 games. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 4.
Specifically, I will be focusing on ownership projections and leverage scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify undervalued targets. Leverage scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Note: These leverage scores can also change as projected ownership and projections change throughout the weekend.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Geno Smith ($5,200) + Garrett Wilson ($6,800) + Kenyon Sadiq ($4,000)
With Adonai Mitchell (finger) and Mason Taylor (thumb) likely to miss their second straight game Sunday vs. the Bears – neither has practiced this week as of Thursday – Smith, Wilson, and Sadiq are a terrific stack that brings strong upside at an affordable cost.
With Mitchell and Taylor inactive last Sunday vs. the Lions, Smith, Wilson, and Sadiq had season-best outings, scoring 30.04, 29.7, and 26.5 DraftKings points, respectively. Smith completed 31 of 37 passes for 321 yards and three touchdowns. The veteran has been efficient, ranking 10th in YPA (7.7), and he has rushed the ball 13 times in three games.
Smith has brought life to the Jets’ offense, and they rank 10th in PROE with him at the helm. As a 3.5-point underdog vs. Chicago, New York should pass the ball at a high clip this Sunday. This is a plus matchup, as the Bears are giving up the eighth-most yards per pass this season (7.4). With Mitchell and Taylor missing, Smith’s targets should once again be heavily concentrated on Wilson and Sadiq.
Last Sunday, Wilson caught 10 of 13 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown. The wideout led the Jets with a massive 35.1% target share, including two red-zone targets and two targets over 20 yards. Wilson is averaging 2.3 YPRR this season, and he is a lock for double-digit targets this weekend.
As for Sadiq, the first-round pick out of Oregon took full advantage of Taylor being out and went nuts, catching 7 of 8 targets for 105 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown came on a highlight-reel diving catch.
Sadiq saw a 21.6% target share – including two targets over 20 yards and one red-zone target – while running a route on 56% of his team’s dropbacks. Sadiq’s elite speed and playmaking ability were on full display, and the Jets would be foolish if they didn’t continue giving such an incredible talent heavy volume this Sunday. This season, Sadiq has seen a target on 22% of his routes, is averaging a team-high 2.4 YPRR, and ranks 13th among all skill players in DraftKings points per snap (0.45).
Sadiq’s route rate could increase after his outstanding performance, and he should have another big outing vs. the Bears’ soft secondary. Both Wilson and Sadiq are going to see solid ownership, but Smith is likely to be overlooked again, and this stack should be contrarian.
Despite Wilson being one of the chalkiest players on the slate, only 1.9% of lineups in last week’s Fantasy Football Millionaire on DraftKings featured Smith, Wilson, and Sadiq together, including the lineup that won $1 million, according to the Contest Dashboard.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Bhayshul Tuten ($5,600)
Tuten has improved in each game this season, scoring 9.8, 14.2, and 17 DraftKings points. The 23-year-old has been great on the ground, ranking 11th in YPC (4.7), third in MTF (13), and sixth in rushes of 10+ yards among backs with 10+ carries (six).
Tuten has been the Jaguars’ top back, averaging 14.3 carries per game on a 49.4% snap rate. He has seen six red-zone carries. In the passing game, Tuten is running a route on 33% of his team’s dropbacks and seeing a target on 17% of those routes.
Tuten ranks sixth among backs in DraftKings points per snap (0.47) but is just the 17th-most expensive back on the slate. He also gets a great matchup vs. the Bengals this Sunday.
Cincinnati is giving up the sixth-most yards per rush (4.7), and Jaylen Warren just cooked this defense for 23.6 DraftKings points last week. Bucky Irving also exposed the Bengals for 21.3 DraftKings points in Week 1.
Tuten could be in store for a season-best outing, and he is being heavily overlooked, with our projections putting him at around 1% ownership on DraftKings.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Rashee Rice ($6,400)
As he works his way back after offseason knee surgery, Rice has looked better in each game. The wideout has scored 9.9, 12.3, and 15.8 DraftKings points. In each of these games, Rice has seen both his target total and YPRR increase. This past Sunday vs. the Dolphins, Rice caught 7 of 9 targets for 88 yards, resulting in 4.9 YPRR, which was more than double the 2.3 YPRR he produced in Week 2.
Kansas City ranks seventh in PROE, and Rice is seeing a target on 17% of his routes this season. Up next, Rice faces the Raiders, and he should continue to progress in this spot. Las Vegas’ defense is giving up the 12th-fewest yards per pass (6.3), but the team ranks eighth in pace, and the Chiefs’ 26-point implied team total is the fourth-highest on the slate.
Rice has been awesome vs. the Raiders in his career, averaging 20.9 DraftKings PPG in three matchups. He has also scored 23+ DraftKings points in four of the last seven games he has played with an implied team total of 25+ points, according to the Trends Tool.
Rice looks ready to break out this week, and he isn’t expected to be popular. Our projections put him at around 7% ownership on DraftKings, while Wilson and Parker Washington are expected to soak up most of the ownership in this range.
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Tyler Higbee ($3,100)
At tight end this week, most will either pay up for Brock Bowers or George Kittle or take the cheaper route with Brenton Strange or Sadiq. Lost in the shuffle is Higbee, who is expected to be minimally owned and is way too cheap for his likely role with Terrance Ferguson (ankle), not expected to play Sunday vs. the Eagles – he hasn’t practiced this week as of Thursday.
Ferguson exited after playing only 25.6% of the snaps last Sunday vs. the Broncos, and with him missing most of the game, Higbee caught 8 of 11 targets for 62 yards and a touchdown. The veteran scored 20.2 DraftKings points and was the No. 6 tight end in DraftKings scoring for Week 3.
Higbee saw a 20% target share – including two red-zone targets – while running a route on 71% of his team’s dropbacks, all of which set season highs. Puka Nacua (hip) missed this game but is trending toward making his return – he was a limited participant at practice Wednesday and Thursday. His return will undoubtedly hurt Higbee’s target share.
Still, Higbee should see a high route rate and a decent number of targets as the Rams’ main tight end with Ferguson likely out. The Eagles are an average matchup, ranking 15th in yards per pass allowed (6.6), but Los Angeles’ implied team total is 23.5 points, and this offense ranks ninth in PROE.
Higbee is in a strong position to outproduce his low salary and is a cheap tight end worth some exposure this weekend.
Pictured: Geno Smith
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
