Sunday’s main slate for Week 3 features 13 games. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 3.
Specifically, I will be focusing on ownership projections and leverage scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify undervalued targets. Leverage scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Note: These leverage scores can also change as projected ownership and projections change throughout the weekend.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Lamar Jackson ($7,500) + Rashod Bateman ($4,700) + Mark Andrews ($4,400) + CeeDee Lamb ($7,800)
While all four of these players are going to see decent ownership, very few lineups should include all four. The Ravens are facing the Cowboys in Brazil, and this matchup should be a full-blown shootout. This game carries the highest total on the slate by two points (52.5 points), and Baltimore’s implied team total is the second-highest on the board (28 points).
The Dallas defense ranks 26th in EPA, and it is giving up the fifth-most passing touchdowns this season. Jackson could erupt in this spot. Although Jackson was held to 15.8 DraftKings points vs. the Saints last Sunday, he went off for 28.9 DraftKings points vs. the Colts in Week 1. He ranks fifth in DraftKings points per dropback this season (0.67).
Jackson leads the NFL in YPA (10.0), and while he has thrown only two touchdowns, he is due for some positive regression in this department, as the Ravens rank ninth in PROE. Jackson should throw for multiple scores vs. this susceptible Cowboys defense and, as usual, do some damage on the ground. Jackson has rushed the ball 11 times for 74 yards and a touchdown in his two games this season. The mobile quarterback is averaging 6.7 YPC, has four rushes of 10+ yards, and has forced four missed tackles.
With Zay Flowers (hamstring) missing practice Wednesday and Thursday, the receiver is likely to miss his second straight game, leaving Bateman and Andrews as Jackson’s main weapons. With Flowers out last Sunday vs. the Saints, Bateman caught seven passes for 88 yards and a touchdown (21.8 DraftKings points), while Andrews caught six passes for 49 yards (10.9 DraftKings points).
Bateman and Andrews led the team with nine and seven targets, respectively, while Chris Moore ranked a distant third with just three. Notably, Bateman saw three targets in the red zone. Bateman and Andrews should once again lead Baltimore in targets by a wide margin this week, and they are both underpriced for the upside they bring in this elite setting vs. the Cowboys.
Having a bring-back play on the other end of this Ravens stack is essential in this slate-high total, and Lamb is the unquestioned top option from the Cowboys. After scoring 15.4 DraftKings points vs. the Giants in Week 1, Lamb destroyed the Commanders for 38.3 DraftKings points in Week 2. The receiver leads Dallas with a 26.2% target share and 3.46 YPRR, while George Pickens has taken a step back with just 1.1 YPRR.
Lamb has garnered seven red-zone targets and four targets over 20 yards, and this is a plus matchup, as the Ravens’ defense ranks 18th in EPA. Chris Olave exposed Baltimore for 22.6 DraftKings points last Sunday, and Lamb should have a similar outing.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Breece Hall ($6,400)
With an affordable salary and single-digit projected ownership on DraftKings, Hall is a tremendous tournament play. The Jets are visiting the Lions, and this game’s 47.5-point total is the third-highest on the slate. While New York is a 6.5-point underdog, this is still a compelling spot for Hall. Detroit ranks 29th in defensive EPA, and it is giving up the eighth-most yards per rush this season (4.8). Furthermore, the Lions rank sixth in pace, and their first two contests have generated a whopping 66.5 PPG.
Facing the Lions has been a fantasy cheat code for players at every position, and Hall should thrive in this setting. After signing a three-year, $45.75 million contract this offseason, Hall has been great, scoring 22.8 DraftKings points vs. the Titans and 14.2 DraftKings points vs. the Packers. The back’s role has been excellent, as he is averaging 19.9 carries per game and logging 61.7% of the snaps.
Hall has seen five red-zone carries, and in the passing game, he is running a route on 39% of his team’s dropbacks and commanding a target on 24% of his routes. Hall has hauled in all seven of his targets for 79 yards.
Hall is a -105 favorite to score a touchdown vs. the Lions on DraftKings Sportsbook, and his strong start to the season should continue on Sunday.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Denzel Boston ($4,500)
Boston is severely underpriced, and he is projected for only around 5% ownership on DraftKings, according to our projections. The rookie has been awesome, scoring 13.9 DraftKings points vs. the Jaguars and 20.5 DraftKings points vs. the Buccaneers.
Boston found the end zone in both of those games, and his usage has been terrific. The 22-year-old is commanding a 21.2% target share while running a route on 95% of his team’s dropbacks and averaging 2.4 YPRR. Boston has seen six red-zone targets and three targets over 20 yards. He has a 16.4 aDOT and is averaging a massive 22.2 yards per reception, both of which rank in the top three among players who have seen 10+ targets.
Up next, Boston faces a Panthers team that has played very fast, ranking fourth in pace this season. Carolina’s defense ranks 11th in EPA, but that is rather misleading. The club held the Falcons to just three points last week, but it did so with the inept Cooper Rush under center. Rush ranks dead last in passer rating among quarterbacks who have dropped back at least 30 times this season. It was a much different story when Carolina faced the Bears in Week 1, as Chicago exploded for 59 points.
All in all, this should be a friendly matchup for Boston, and his second straight performance with more than 20 DraftKings points isn’t out of the question.
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Dalton Kincaid ($5,500)
With Andrews, Travis Kelce, and Dalton Schultz soaking up most of the ownership at tight end, Kincaid is projected for only around 5% ownership on DraftKings, according to our projections, and is an incredible play.
With Kincaid fully healthy and Joe Brady taking over as the Bills’ new head coach, Kincaid has been set free this season. The results have been outstanding. The 26-year-old scored 21 DraftKings points vs. the Texans and 22.5 DraftKings points vs. the Lions, making him the No. 1 tight end in fantasy scoring.
Kincaid has been Josh Allen‘s favorite target. He leads the Bills with a 23.3% target share and a 69% route rate, which is almost double the 37% route rate he handled last season. Kincaid has seen three red-zone targets and three targets over 20 yards, and he is averaging a mammoth 4.69 YPRR, which ranks second in the NFL behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Kincaid comfortably led all tight ends in DraftKings points per snap last season (0.44), so seeing him flourish with a full workload shouldn’t come as a surprise. Kincaid has a real chance to be the top-scoring tight end this season if he can stay healthy, and he should have another big performance this Sunday vs. the Chargers.
Los Angeles has been a pass-funnel defense this season, giving up the fewest yards per rush (2.7) but the sixth-most yards per pass (8.0). The Bills are going to attack the Chargers through the air, and Buffalo’s implied team total is the highest on the slate (28.5 points).
Los Angeles is allowing the sixth-most yards to tight ends (129), and Trey McBride torched them for 24.5 DraftKings points in Week 1. Kincaid could put up an even better fantasy score and is a must-play.
Pictured: Breece Hall
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
