After an eventful Week 1, Week 2’s main slate features 12 games, with seven of these contests carrying a total of at least 45 points.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 1. Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Anthony Richardson ($6,300) + Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,300)
In his NFL debut this past Sunday, Richardson finished with 21.82 DraftKings against a solid Jags’ defense. The rookie out of Florida unsurprisingly didn’t have the most efficient showing as a passer, finishing at a modest 6.0 YPA, but the volume was encouraging, with Richardson tallying 37 pass attempts and the Colts throwing the ball at the 10th-highest rate for Week 1.
Even more promising was the former Gator’s usage as a rusher. Richardson recorded 10 carries, including six designed quarterback runs and four red zone attempts, with that latter stat ranking seventh in the NFL after Week 1, regardless of position.
This elite dual-threat workload is going to translate into some massive fantasy performances for Richardson, possibly as soon as this Sunday against the Texans, who are the 18th highest-graded defense on PFF after Week 1.
In Richardson’s pro debut, Pittman was undoubtedly his favorite target. The wideout led the Colts with 11 targets – good enough for a 28% target share – including a pair of targets in the red zone while running a route on all but one of his team’s dropbacks. With this usage, Pittman finished with an 8/97/1 receiving line and 23.7 DraftKings points against the Jags.
Both Richardson and Pittman are far too cheap for their upside, and combining them as a stack is a strategy that is guaranteed to set you apart from the field, with both players hovering around only 6% expected ownership in the BLITZ projections.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Saquon Barkley ($8,000)
Coming off a disappointing Week 1, this is an excellent time to buy low on Barkley. The back only posted 9.3 DraftKings points against the Cowboys last Sunday, but this was a product of a poor matchup against an elite Dallas defense that is the second-highest graded unit on PFF and that Barkley was in a negative game script for the entire contest with the Giants getting blown out 40-0.
The 26-year-old now finds himself in a perfect bounce-back spot this Sunday, going against the Cardinals, who are the 10th worst-graded defense on PFF after Week 1.
Despite the lopsided loss, Barkley still handled 80% of New York’s running back carries in Week 1, and last season, Barkley was one of the only true workhorse backs in the NFL, ranking first in snap share (78.9%), fourth in carries per game (18.4) and 14th in red zone rushes (35) among running backs. Furthermore, the 26-year-old garnered a target on 15% of his routes while running a route on 84% of his team’s dropbacks.
This Sunday, the Giants carry a healthy implied team total of 22.75 points and they are 5.5-point favorites, which is huge news for Barkley. Playing in a positive game script has been a massive advantage for the back his entire career, with Barkley owning a career average of 23.6 DraftKings PPG when the Giants have been favored (14 games), including four outbursts north of 30 DraftKings points, via the Trends Tool.
The Penn State product has the potential to lead all running backs in scoring this Sunday and is an incredible contrarian target, with the BLITZ projections slating Barkley to come with single-digit ownership on DraftKings.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Mike Evans ($6,200)
In his first game with Baker Mayfield at the helm, Evans shined with 18.6 DraftKings points in last week’s win over the Vikings, thanks to an outstanding 31.3% target share. Notably, three of the wideout’s 10 targets were greater than 20 yards, which ranked third in the NFL for Week 1.
After not reaching an agreement on a contract extension with the Bucs before the start of the season, Evans is currently playing in the final year of his deal and is on a mission to prove his worth as one of the league’s best receivers. As we saw last week, Evans is going to continue to demand heavy volume even with a new quarterback under center this season, and this Sunday, he gets a mouth-watering matchup against the Bears.
After giving up the most yards per pass in the league last season (7.7), Chicago surrendered the second most yards per pass for Week 1 (8.8). Additionally, they allowed three passing touchdowns to the Packers last Sunday, which finished in a tie for the most of the opening week. Evans should tear this soft Bears defense up, and on top of being severely underpriced for his upside at only $6,300, the wideout is forecasted to come with single-digit ownership on DraftKings according to the BLITZ projections.
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NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Sam LaPorta ($3,900)
LaPorta operated as the Lions’ featured tight end in his NFL debut against the Chiefs last Thursday, seeing a target on 19% of his routes while running a route on 72% of his team’s dropbacks. The rookie hauled in all five of his targets for 8.9 DraftKings points against Kansas City and should outdo himself with an even better output this Sunday against the Seahawks.
Seattle is the second worst-graded defense on PFF following Week 1 and in this spot, the Lions boast the third-highest implied team total on the slate (26.25 points) via the FantasyLabs Vegas page. Plus, this game’s total is the second largest on the board (47.5 points) and the Seahawks were one of the premier fantasy matchups for tight ends last season, yielding the second-most yards (1,115) and seventh-most touchdowns to the position (8).
LaPorta should easily outproduce his low salary in this juicy matchup, and he is a great low-owned way to attack one of the best game environments on the slate.
According to the BLITZ projections, LaPorta is only expected to be around 5% owned on DraftKings.
