The NFL regular season concludes Sunday with a 13-game main slate on DraftKings. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 18.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify undervalued targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Caleb Williams ($5,900) + Luther Burden ($5,300) + Colston Loveland ($3,900)
The Bears can secure the No. 2 seed in the NFC with a win over the Lions this Sunday, which is important, as being the No. 2 seed means a first-round matchup with the No. 7 Packers, who the Bears just beat three weeks ago, instead of facing either the Rams or 49ers.
Chicago should be very motivated to win, and this game should produce a ton of points, with this tilt tied for the highest total on the slate (50.5 points). Williams scored 17.98 vs. the Lions in Detroit in Week 2, but he now faces them on his home turf, which is a big deal, as Williams is averaging 21 DraftKings PPG at home this season, compared to 18.4 on the road.
The quarterback has also vastly improved since that first meeting with the Lions. Over the last three weeks, Williams is averaging 7.9 yards per pass, and he has thrown six touchdowns and no picks. Williams has also chipped in with at least 13 rushing yards in each of his last three. The quarterback finished with 26 DraftKings points last week vs. the 49ers, and with Detroit giving up the seventh-most passing touchdowns this season (28), Williams has 300-yard and multiple-touchdown upside this Sunday.
With Rome Odunze (foot) likely to sit again, as he hasn’t practiced this week as of Thursday, Burden is an awesome target. The rookie has played each of his last three games with Odunze inactive, and Burden has scored 11, 14.4, and 30.8 FPTS, in that order. During this stretch, the wideout is only running a route on 59% of his team’s dropbacks, but Burden has seen a target on a team-best 32% of his routes. Burden is an elite talent whom the Bears took in the second round of this past NFL draft, and this is evident when we look at yards-per-route-run averages for this season, as Burden ranks third in the metric behind only Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Burden would have been viable with a $7,000 price tag this week, and he is easily one of the best plays on the board at only $5,300.
To conclude this stack is Loveland, who, like Burden, is very underpriced for his upside. Last week vs. the 49ers, Loveland caught six of his 10 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown, resulting in 21.4 DraftKings points. Like Burden, Loveland was a high draft pick from this past NFL draft, being selected 10th in the first round by the Bears, and after playing behind veteran Cole Kmet for most of the season, Loveland has finally moved ahead of Kmet on the depth chart, as Loveland has run more routes than Kmet in three straight games.
This past week, Loveland saw a season-high 85% route rate and a target on 26% of his routes, including two red-zone targets and two targets over 20 yards. This elite usage very well could continue this week, and Loveland should beat his salary with ease.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Audric Estime ($5,000)
In Week 16, the Saints decided to give Taysom Hill most of the team’s carries in their last home game of the season, as it was likely the praised veteran’s last career game in front of the New Orleans faithful. After this, things changed dramatically in this backfield for the Saints’ Week 17 matchup vs. the Titans, as Estime saw a featured role and posted 16.8 DraftKings points, thanks to 14 carries for 94 yards and a touchdown.
Estime saw 14 carries on 41 snaps, whereas Hill only saw three carries on seven snaps. Estime only saw one target, but he did run 22 routes on 31 of his team’s dropbacks (71%). Estime should see a similar workload in Sunday’s season finale vs. the Falcons, giving him great upside for a player this cheap.
Estime has been an excellent rusher this season, averaging 5.4 yards per carry, which ranks eighth among the backs who have seen at least 20 carries this season. Additionally, Estime has forced nine missed tackles on just 25 rushes.
The back is producing a solid 0.26 DraftKings points per snap this season, and the Falcons have been weak at defending the run lately, giving up the sixth-most yards per rush over the last three weeks (5.2). Fifteen to 20 DraftKings points is in the realm of possibilities for Estime, and he is only projected to be around 10% owned on DraftKings according to our projections.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Nico Collins ($7,000)
The Texans should be highly motivated this Sunday vs. the Colts, as Houston can win the AFC South with a win and a Jaguars loss. With plenty at stake, the Texans should rely on Collins heavily vs. this weak Indianapolis defense that has allowed the seventh-most yards per pass over the last three weeks (7.6).
Collins scored 21.5 DraftKings points vs. the Colts in Week 13, which is the fifth time in his last eight games that the wideout has scored at least 19 DraftKings points. Collins is leading Houston with a 24.6% target share, 23 targets over 20 yards, and 16 red-zone targets. The receiver owns a 13.2 aDOT, and Collins ranks 11th in yards per route run (2.34).
Collins could erupt this Sunday, and in addition to his $7,000 salary being a $400 drop from last week, Collins is only projected to be around 9% owned on DraftKings, according to our projections.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Chig Okonkwo ($3,400)
Okonkwo is playing his best football of the year as the season comes to a close. The tight end has scored 16.4 and 14.5 DraftKings points in his last two games, while seeing a target on a team-best 31% of his routes and running a route on 63% of his team’s dropbacks, including three red-zone targets.
Okonkwo concludes the season facing a Jaguars defense this Sunday that is giving up the fourth-most catches (101), the eighth-most yards (988), and the seventh-most touchdowns to tight ends this season (8.8).
The Titans are likely to air it out as 13.5-point underdogs, and last but not least, Gunnar Helm (toe) is trending toward not playing, as he has yet to practice this week as of Thursday. Helm and Okonkwo have split the tight end snaps for Tennessee this season, and if Helm sits, Okonkwo naturally will see more work, boosting his upside significantly.
Okonkwo would have 20-DraftKings-point upside if Helm is out as expected, and Okonkwo is only forecasted to be around 2% owned on DraftKings according to our projections.
Pictured: Colston Loveland
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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