Sunday presents an 11-game main slate on DraftKings. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 14.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify undervalued targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Tyler Shough ($4,600) + Chris Olave ($6,500) + Bucky Irving ($7,000)
This is a tricky slate at quarterback. Josh Allen is the obvious top option, but paying all the way up for him at $7,700 limits the rest of your lineup. Then, most of the middle-tier options are in poor spots or in questionable form. Punting the position makes the most sense, and Shough has a ton of merit at only $4,600.
Shough continues to improve, and he just finished with a career-best 19.36 DraftKings points vs. the Dolphins last Sunday, which is the second time the rookie has scored at least 18 DraftKings points in his last three starts. Shough has thrown for at least 239 yards in three straight games, and the second-round pick out of Louisville has displayed decent upside as a rusher.
Over the last three weeks, Shough is averaging 5.7 rushes for 12.3 yards per game, including seven red-zone carries. The quarterback has yet to find the pay dirt as a rusher, but positive regression is coming soon in this department, possibly as soon as this week, as Shough is facing a Buccaneers defense that is giving up the fourth-most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season (4). More importantly, Tampa Bay has been very vulnerable through the air recently, allowing the second-most yards per pass over the last three weeks (8.4).
The Saints are an 8.5-point underdog to the Buccaneers, so Shough should be forced to air it out, and he and Olave should hook up often in this matchup. With Shough starting for the last four games, Olave is averaging 16 DraftKings PPG, and he is leading New Orleans with a 25.6% target share, including nine targets over 20 yards. The receiver owns a 13.3 aDOT with Shough starting, and Olave scored 14 DraftKings points vs. Tampa Bay in Week 8, which was a game that Shough was under center for just over half the snaps. Shough has improved greatly since then, while the Buccaneers’ defense has gotten worse, so Olave very well could have an even better outing vs. Tampa Bay this weekend.
With the Buccaneers being an 8.5-point home favorite, Irving should thrive in this positive game script, and he is an excellent bring-back for Shough-Olave stacks. Irving made his return last week after missing seven consecutive games, and he was fed 19 touches, which he turned into 81 yards and a touchdown in a win over the Cardinals. Irving logged 52.5% of the snaps and saw 80.9% of the running back carries for Tampa Bay, including three red-zone attempts. Seeing him get this type of workload in his return was extremely encouraging, and Irving is a lock for over 20 touches competing as a big home favorite this week, giving the back huge upside.
Irving is slated for around 11% ownership according to our projections, but both Shough and Olave are expected to come with single-digit ownership, so this three-player game stack should be ultra-contrarian.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Chris Rodriguez Jr. ($4,700)
Rodriguez Jr. has posted 9.5 and 10.1 DraftKings points in his last two games, as he has been the Commanders’ clear No. 1 back over Jacory Croskey-Merritt. During this two-game stretch, Rodriguez Jr. is logging 42.7% of the snaps, and he is averaging 13 carries per game—including seven red-zone carries—which is 53.1% of the running back carries for Washington. Meanwhile, Croskey-Merritt is only averaging 6.5 carries per game, a 26.5% rush share, and a 19.8% snap share.
Rodriguez Jr. has had a real nose for the end zone recently, scoring four touchdowns in his last six games, and while he is in a less-than-ideal matchup vs. the Vikings this Sunday, who are giving up the 10th-fewest yards per rush this season (4.0), the Commanders should be a better offense overall with Jayden Daniels (elbow) returning and find themselves in the red zone often. With the news of the quarterback returning, Washington’s implied team total has moved up to 22.5 points, and the Commanders are now a 1.5-point favorite over Minnesota.
Rodriguez Jr. scoring double-digit DraftKings points is a strong possibility, and he is an appealing cheap play for GPPs that is expected to come with minimal ownership according to our projections.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with our Sleeper promo code.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Davante Adams ($7,700)
While Puka Nacua is expected to be one of the most owned players on the slate, Adams is only expected to be around 6% owned, according to our projections. Adams’ ceiling is lower than Nacua’s, but Adams still has terrific upside and will be a real difference-maker in GPPs if he performs well.
Adams has exceeded 20 DraftKings points in four of his last six games, and he has found the end zone in each of these past six games. Adams leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns (14) and red-zone targets (27), as targeting the big wideout in scoring territory has been a cheat code for Matthew Stafford. Adams is handling a 25.3% target share this season, and he is facing a Cardinals defense that is yielding the seventh-most yards per pass over the last three weeks (7.2).
The Rams’ implied team total is the second-highest on the slate (28 points), and this is a big game for Los Angeles, as after last week’s loss to the Panthers, the Rams no longer own the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Adams is a -150 favorite to score a touchdown on DraftKings Sportsbook, and he brings a top-10 ceiling on the slate among skill players in our projections.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Kyle Pitts ($4,200)
Drake London (knee) is out Sunday vs. the Seahawks, leaving Pitts as the Falcons’ top pass-catcher. With London inactive for the last two games, Pitts is leading Atlanta with a 25.5% target share, and the tight end is coming off a 15.2 DraftKings point outing vs. the Jets last week.
Pitts has been much more efficient this season, with a 74.7% catch rate compared to a 63.5% rate last season, and our projections are slating him for single-digit ownership this week, as most will likely shy away from Pitts with a great Seattle defense on the other side.
The Seahawks are without a doubt one of the best defenses in the NFL, but one of their only flaws is containing tight ends. This season, Seattle is allowing the third-most receptions (82), the third-most yards (843), and the third-highest completion percentage to the position (78.1%).
The Falcons are going to be throwing it a ton as eight-point underdogs, and Pitts should outperform his $4,200 with ease, possibly finishing as one of the highest-scoring tight ends on the slate.
Pictured: Kyle Pitts
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
