Sunday presents a 10-game main slate on DraftKings. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 13.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify undervalued targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Justin Herbert ($6,500) + Ladd McConkey ($6,300) + Tre Tucker ($4,800)
The Chargers are coming off their bye to face a pass-funnel Raiders’ defense. This season, Las Vegas is allowing the second-fewest yards per rush (3.7), but the ninth-most yards per pass (6.8). Additionally, the Raiders are pressuring quarterbacks at the second-lowest rate (27.2%). Los Angeles ranks fourth in pass rate over expectation this season (3.9%), and the Chargers carry the third-highest implied team total on the slate (25 points).
Herbert produced 19.38 DraftKings points vs. the Raiders in Week 2 and should have an even better outing in Sunday’s rematch vs. Las Vegas, with this matchup being in Los Angeles. Herbert is scoring a 23.2 DraftKings PPG at home this season, which is a notable +6.0 additional DraftKings PPG than his average on the road (per the Trends tool). Herbert is averaging 7.3 yards per pass, and while he has thrown nine picks, he ranks fifth in the league with 19 touchdowns.
Herbert has generated at least 26 DraftKings points in four of his 11 starts this season, and he and McConkey should hook up often. The receiver is handling a 22.6% target share this season, including 10 redzone targets and nine targets over 20 yards. McConkey has gone off for over 20 DraftKings points in three of his last six, and this Raiders’ defense he is facing is allowing the seventh-highest completion percentage to slot receivers (73.2%). That bodes well for McConkey, as 64.2% of his routes have come from the slot this season.
While the Chargers are a tough matchup, giving up the fifth-fewest yards per pass this season (6.8), the Raiders should be forced to rely on their passing game as 9.5-point underdogs. Tucker should be very active as his team tries to keep up with Los Angeles.
Ever since Las Vegas traded Jakobi Meyers to the Jaguars, Tucker has been the team’s top wideout, handling a 19.8% target share and a 98% route rate. During this three-game span, the receiver has seen a strong 13.6 aDOT, three targets over 20 yards, and two redzone targets. Tucker posted 14.7 DraftKings points vs. the Cowboys two weeks ago and brings similar upside vs. the Chargers.
While Herbert is likely to be one of the most popular quarterbacks on the slate, both McConkey and Tukcer are slated for single-digit ownership on DraftKings according to our projections.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Jaylen Warren ($6,300)
Warren is in a terrific spot vs. the Bills, and he is expected to come with single-digit ownership. Buffalo is yielding the second-most yards per rush (5.3) and the second-most touchdowns to running backs (15).
Warren has been the Steelers’ top back this season, averaging 14.1 carries per game. That translates to 66.2% of the running back carries. He’s also logged 53.8% of the snaps. Warren has seen 25 redzone carries in 10 games, and in the passing game, he has been targeted on 19% of his routes while running a route on 41% of his team’s dropbacks.
Warren has scored double-digit DraftKings points in seven of his 10 games, and he is an awesome way to gain a share of this slate-high total between the Steelers and the Bills (46.5 points).
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
John Metchie ($3,800)
With Garett Wilson (knee) on injured reserve, Metchie has seen an expanded role for the Jets, scoring 13.5 DraftKings points vs. the Patriots and 18.5 DraftKings points vs. the Ravens. Both of those were difficult matchups, as both defenses rank inside the top-10 in the fewest yards per pass allowed over the last three weeks.
During this two-game stretch, Metchie has handled a 19.2% target share and a team-high 82% route rate. The veteran next faces a Falcons’ defense that is allowing 7.1 yards per pass over the last three games and has surrendered over 30 points in two of them.
New York is likely to be in a negative game script as a 2.5-point underdog, and Metchie has 15-20 DraftKings point upside. On top of being far too cheap for his current role at only $3,800, our projections forecast Metchie to be around 8% owned on DraftKings.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Gunnar Helm ($2,600)
Helm is trending up right now, fresh off a career-best 11.1 DraftKings point outing vs. a stout Seahawks’ defense that is allowing the fourth-fewest yards per pass this season (5.6). The rookie out of Texas has now scored double-digit DraftKings points in two of his last three. Helm has only run a route on 42% of his team’s dropbacks over that stretch, but he is garnering a target on a strong 24% of those routes.
After investing a fourth-round pick on Helm in this past NFL draft, giving Helm more work as the season winds down makes a ton of sense for this 1-10 Titans team. The tight end should continue to see plenty of targets this Sunday, and he is in a great spot vs. the Jaguars.
Jacksonville is giving up the second-most touchdowns (seven) and the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends (779), and a showing of double-digit DraftKings points is absolutely within reach for Helm in this juicy spot. With a sub $3,000 salary and a roughly 3% ownership projection on DraftKings, Helm is an excellent GPP play at the tight end position for Week 13.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
Pictured: Jaylen Warren
Photo Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images
