Sunday presents a 12-game main slate on DraftKings. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 12.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Jalen Hurts ($6,600) + DeVonta Smith ($5,600) + George Pickens ($6,900)
The Eagles have won four in a row and will look to keep their foot on the gas this Sunday vs. the Cowboys. This NFC East matchup carries the third-highest total on the slate (47.5 points), and Philadelphia presents a 25.5-point implied team total as three-point favorites.
Dallas has been one of the weakest defenses in the league this season, especially through the air, with the Cowboys giving up the most passing touchdowns (23) and the fourth-most yards per pass in the NFL (7.4). This season, Hurts is averaging a solid 7.4 yards per pass, and he has thrown 16 touchdowns to just one pick. On the ground, Hurts has been very aggressive, leading all quarterbacks in carries (73) and ranking second at the position in red zone carries (19). The Alabama product ranks fourth in DraftKings points per dropback (0.64), and when Hurts faced Dallas in Week 1, he scored 24.28 DraftKings points. Given the Cowboys’ weak defense and their efficient passing attack on offense, their games tend to produce a ton of points, and in this spot, Hurts has a ceiling over 30 DraftKings points in our projections.
With Dallas being a zone-heavy defense, Smith is the best player to pair with Hurts. The Cowboys use zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate this season (71.3%), and Smith is the Eagles’ leading receiver against zone this season. 77% of his yards have come against zone coverage, and Smith leads Philadelphia with a 25.7% target share when facing zone coverage. The wideout has seen 14 targets over 20 yards this season, and while Smith’s game log is up-and-down this season, this is an excellent matchup for him to find his ceiling.
To finish up this game stack is Pickens. The receiver is handling a 22.9% target share this season while leading the Cowboys with 17 targets over 20 yards and 11 red zone targets. Pickens went off for 32.4 DraftKings points vs. the Raiders last week, marking his third effort of over 30 DraftKings points this season, and while the Eagles are a strong secondary, they are more susceptible to pass catchers who line up wide than in the slot, making this a better spot for Pickens than CeeDee Lamb. Philadelphia is giving up a league-low 5.1 yards per pass to players lining up in the slot, compared to 7.9 to players who line up wide, and 88.8% of Pickens’ routes have come out wide this season. The receiver’s upside is massive with Dallas likely to air it out as underdogs, and Pickens is the key to making this game stack contrarian, as he is slated to be only around 6% owned on DraftKings according to our projections.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Derrick Henry ($7,600)
With most paying up for either Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson at running back this week, Henry should come with single-digit ownership in GPPs, and his upside is huge in a home matchup vs. the Jets. The Ravens are 13.5-point favorites over New York, and Baltimore’s 29.5-point implied team total is the second-highest on the slate.
Henry is on the heels of a 23.25 DraftKings point showing vs. the Browns, which was very impressive given Cleveland’s defense is giving up the fourth-fewest yards per rush this season (7.9). Henry has scored at least 16 DraftKings points in half of his starts this season, and his workload has remained immense this season as the Ravens’ featured back, averaging 16.6 carries per game—which is 80.2% of the running back carries for Baltimore—while logging 56% of the snaps.
Henry ranks seventh in red zone carries (31), and multiple touchdowns are very much in play for Henry this week, as the Jets are giving up the sixth-most touchdowns to running backs this season (12), including three to TreVeyon Henderson just last week. Henry should be in line for 20+ carries with the Ravens being a massive home favorite, and he has been very successful in this type of situation since joining Baltimore. As a member of the Ravens the last two seasons, Henry is producing 22.1 DraftKings PPG when competing as a home favorite (12 games), via the Trends Tool.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with our Sleeper promo code.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Alec Pierce ($5,000)
Since returning from a two-game absence due to a concussion in Week 6, Pierce has been the Colts’ main pass catcher. Over this five-game stretch, the veteran is leading Indianapolis with a 23.8% target share and a 91% route rate. Furthermore, Pierce has racked up five targets over 20 yards, and he owns an elite 21.0 aDOT, which is the second-highest in the NFL during this time.
Pierce has generated 20.5 and 18.4 DraftKings points in his last two games, and now the Colts are coming off their bye week to face the Chiefs in a matchup that presents the second-highest total on the slate (50.5 points). Indianapolis should be forced into a pass-heavy game plan as 3.5-point underdogs, and Kansas City has been getting shredded through the air recently.
In their last three games, the Chiefs are giving up the third-most yards per pass (7.9) and the second-highest completion percentage on targets over 20 yards (66.7%). This obviously bodes extremely well for a deep threat like Pierce, and the receiver is only slated to be around 4% owned on DraftKings according to our projections.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Mike Gesicki ($2,600)
Gesicki (pectoral) has missed the last four games, but he is trending toward making his return Sunday vs. the Patriots after being a full participant in practice this week. Gesicki hasn’t been much of a factor this season, but he could be in store for an expanded role this Sunday with Ja’Marr Chase suspended.
Tee Higgins will be the Bengals’ main weapon with Chase sidelined, but Gesicki has the potential to operate as the team’s No. 2 pass catcher behind Higgins. Gesicki has yet to play a game without Chase since joining Cincinnati, but Gesicki played five games with Higgins inactive last season, and in those games, Gesicki was the team’s clear No. 2 target after Chase, with Gesicki seeing 27 targets and a target on an outstanding 31% of his routes.
Six of these targets for Gesicki came in the red zone, and he generated 14.2 DraftKings PPG in these five games. Gesicki played all of these games with Joe Burrow (toe) under center, and the quarterback also looks ready to make his return after missing the last eight games, as Burrow has been a full participant in practice this week, and at Thursday’s practice, he was taking reps with the rest of the Bengals’ starters.
Even if Burrow was inactive, Joe Flacco is a more than capable passer who would have no issues getting Gesicki the ball. Cincinnati is a 5.5-point underdog vs. New England, so the Bengals are likely to pass at a high rate, and this game’s total is the highest on the slate (51.5 points). This is a terrific situation for Gesicki to make an immediate impact in his return, and not only is he very cheap at only $2,600, but the tight end likely won’t be popular given he is coming off an injury and has been mostly irrelevant this season.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
Pictured: Jalen Hurts
Photo Credit: Imagn
