Sunday presents an 11-game main slate on DraftKings. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 11.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Joe Flacco ($5,400) + Ja’Marr Chase ($8,500) + Jaylen Warren ($6,100)
Both Chase and Warren are going to be popular plays this week, but Flacco is expected to be only around 6% owned on DraftKings, according to projections. As a result, very few lineups should feature this three-player game stack.
This AFC North matchup is an important game for both teams, and with both the Bengals and Steelers struggling defensively, this game’s total is the highest on the slate (49 points). Cincinnati is a 5.5-point underdog for this tilt, so Flacco and company should be forced to air it out against this Pittsburgh defense, which the Bengals lit up for 33 points last month. That was the fourth time in nine games this season that the Steelers have given up over 30 points.
Pittsburgh is allowing the second-most passing yards this season (2,616), and when Flacco faced the division rival last month, he threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns, resulting in 28.98 DraftKings points. Since being traded to the Bengals, Flacco is averaging 7.2 yards per pass, and he has thrown for 11 touchdowns with only two picks in just four starts. Flacco is averaging a huge 27.2 DraftKings PPG as Cincinnati’s starter.
Albeit only a four-game sample, this makes Flacco the No. 1-scoring quarterback in fantasy football on a per-game basis by a solid margin. Second in this span would be Josh Allen at 24.2.
With Flacco under center, the Bengals are passing the ball a whopping 70.4% of the time and are averaging 32.8 PPG. Now, they are coming off their bye, and in this possible shootout with the Steelers, over 30 DraftKings points is a realistic possibility for Flacco. The veteran should also help Chase have a huge performance.
With Flacco at the helm, Chase is handling a massive 38% target share and has seen a ridiculous 62 targets in these four games with the quarterback, which is the most in the league during this span. Chase has garnered nine red zone targets and is amassing 26.9 DraftKings PPG with Flacco under center.
Pittsburgh uses man coverage at the third-highest rate this season (43.4%), and with Flacco at quarterback, Chase is handling a 40.3% target share when facing man coverage. Three of his five touchdowns this season have come against man coverage, and Chase could go nuts in this spot.
To complete this game stack, Warren is a sensational play in this elite matchup vs. the Bengals. Cincinnati is the second-worst graded defense on PFF, and it is allowing the third-most yards per rush this season (5.3). When Warren faced Cincinnati last month, he produced 158 scrimmage yards and 22.8 DraftKings points—both of which are season highs.
This season, Warren is averaging 14.1 carries per game—which is 71.9% of the running back carries for Pittsburgh—while logging 58.1% of the snaps. As a receiver, the veteran is seeing a target on 21% of his routes while running a route on 48% of his dropbacks.
Warren has garnered 23 red zone opportunities in just eight games this season, but he has only scored three touchdowns. Warren is well overdue for some positive regression as a touchdown scorer, and this is a tremendous spot for him to find the end zone at least once, as the Bengals are yielding the second-most touchdowns to running backs this season (12).
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Woody Marks ($5,400)
Following the Texans’ bye in Week 6, Marks has been the team’s clear top back over Nick Chubb. Over the last four weeks, Marks is averaging 11.3 carries per game and a 57.6% snap rate, while Chubb is averaging 9.5 carries per game and a 29.6% snap rate. Marks has also outcarried Chubb 9–5 in the red zone, and in the receiving game, Marks has seen 15 targets on 84 routes, while Chubb has seen six targets on 24 routes.
Just this past week, Marks logged a season-high 80% of the snaps, and he finished with 16.1 DraftKings points in Houston’s comeback win over the Jaguars. This has clearly become Marks’ backfield, and the rookie’s role is likely to continue to grow as the season goes on, while Chubb’s should continue to dwindle.
Up next for Marks is an excellent matchup vs. the Titans, who are allowing the most touchdowns to running backs (14) and the eighth-most yards per rush this season (4.8). Marks faced Tennessee in Week 4, and the back erupted for a career-best 27.9 DraftKings points. Houston is a 6.5-point favorite for this Sunday’s rematch, and Marks not only is way underpriced, but our projections slate him to be just around 5% owned, making him easily one of the best GPP plays on the slate.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Christian Watson ($4,400)
Watson (knee) made his season debut three weeks ago, and he has been solid so far, scoring 12.5, 7.8, and 6.5 DraftKings points, in that order. Watson’s snap rate has grown in each of these games, peaking at 82.4% vs. the Eagles last Monday. In this contest, the wideout ran a team-high 35 routes on 42 dropbacks for Jordan Love.
Watson has seen a target on 15% of his routes this season, and he owns a huge 26.1 aDOT, which is the highest in the NFL during this time among players who have seen at least 10 targets. Three of Watson’s 12 targets have been over 20 yards, and this Sunday he is facing a Giants defense that is allowing the third-most completions on targets over 20 yards (15).
This is a great spot for Watson to haul in a long touchdown, and he is only expected to be around 4% owned on DraftKings, according to our projections.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Colston Loveland ($3,600)
With Cole Kmet exiting early in Week 9 vs. the Bengals with a concussion, Loveland saw an increased role and seized the moment, erupting for 32.8 DraftKings points in a win for the Bears. Kmet was able to return last week vs. the Giants, but Loveland played ahead of Kmet following Loveland’s breakout performance. The rookie caught all four of his targets for 55 yards while running 23 routes, whereas Kmet caught only one of his two targets for five yards on 20 routes.
Loveland appears to be ahead of Kmet in Chicago’s tight end room, and Loveland should continue to see more work than Kmet again this Sunday vs. the Vikings, especially with Kmet now tending to a back injury that had limited him at Wednesday’s practice earlier this week.
Nonetheless, the Bears used the No. 10 overall pick in this past NFL Draft on Loveland, with plans for him to be the team’s tight end of the future. Loveland produced 1,466 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns in his three years at Michigan, and he has been the far more effective player than Kmet this season, most notably with Loveland owning a 72.4% catch rate compared to a 50% rate for Kmet.
Loveland ranks ninth in YPPR among all tight ends this season (1.72), and he is in a plus spot vs. the Vikings this Sunday, who are allowing the eighth-most yards per pass this season (6.8). This game’s total is the second-highest on the slate (48.5 points), and Loveland is expected to come with minimal ownership according to our projections. Loveland has 15–20 DraftKings point upside in this setting, and getting ahead on the promising rookie is a wise move this week.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
Pictured: Colston Loveland
Photo Credit: Imagn
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