The 2025-26 NFL season has finally arrived and on the menu for this Sunday is a 12-game main slate on DraftKings. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 1.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Joe Burrow ($6,900) + Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100) + Jerry Jeudy ($5,400)
This three-player game stack has a ton of appeal for Week 1. This AFC North matchup between the Bengals and Browns is tied for the highest total on the slate (47.5 points) and these were the top two teams in pass rate last season, so this contest should be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair that lives up to its total.
Cincinnati boasts the highest implied team total on the slate (26.5 points) and Burrow and Chase should have a field day against this Cleveland defense that yielded the sixth-most yards per pass last season (7.1). Burrow averaged 7.5 YPA last season and he finished second in passing touchdowns (43). Furthermore, Burrow finished ninth in DraftKings points per dropback (0.57) and he topped 20 DraftKings points in nine of his 17 starts, including a 22.9 DraftKings point outing vs. the Browns.
As for Chase, he was the No. 1 fantasy scorer among skill players last season with 24.6 DraftKings PPG. Chase led the NFL in targets (175), red-zone targets (35) and YAC (794), while handling third-highest target share in the league (31.1%) Chase also finished ninth in YPPR (2.41) and he racked up 20 targets over 20 yards. Cleveland used single-high coverage at the fourth-highest clip in the NFL last season (64.5%) and no player in the league produced more receiving yards (896) or receiving touchdowns (11) against single-high last season than Chase. In his two matchups vs. the Browns last season, Chase produced 20 DraftKings PPG.
Jeudy is the perfect bring-back for Bengals stacks. The veteran garnered a 22.1% target share last season – including 13 red-zone targets and 20 targets over 20 yards – and he generated 14.7 DraftKings PPG. Jeudy goes from having Jameis Winston at quarterback for most of last season, to Joe Flacco under center to begin this season. While 40 years old, Flacco is still a solid passer that averaged 7.1 YPA last season andknows how to feed his top wideouts. With the Colts last season, slot receiver Josh Downs led the team with a 24.6% target share in the games Flacco started and this season, Jeudy should see plenty of work out of the slot, with Elijah Moore no longer with the Browns. Last season, Jeudy ranked second only to Moore in slot routes for Cleveland.
Jeudy was held to single digits in DraftKings points in both of his matchups with the Bengals last season, but both of these performances are irrelevant, as both of these contests featured the incompetent Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback for Cleveland. Flacco is undoubtedly a better passer than Thompson-Robinson and the Browns are going to be forced to air it out this Sunday as 5.5-point underdogs. Jeudy brings tremendous upside relative to his $5,400 salary and our projections are slating him to be less than 5% owned on DraftKings.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Kyren Williams ($6,500)
At this reasonable price tag and with our projections forecasting him for around 9% ownership on DraftKings, it’s hard not to love Williams in GPPs this week. Last season, the back’s salary on DraftKings never went under $6,900 and it peaked at $8,200. Williams finished seventh among running backs in DraftKings PPG (17.7), thanks to a true workhorse role for the Rams. The 25-year-old ranked third in carries per game (19.75), first in redzone carries (65) and first in snap share among running backs (86.7%). On top of his elite role as a rusher, Williams garnered a target on 11% of his routes – including eight red-zone targets – while running a route on 64% of his team’s dropbacks.
Williams was named a team captain for the Rams this season and he will begin his 2025-26 campaign at home vs. the Texans. Houston was solid against the run last season, giving up the eighth-fewest yards per rush (4.1), but Los Angeles carries a solid 23.5-point implied team total and the Rams are a three-point home favorite, making this a great setup for Williams.
When competing as the home favorite the past two seasons, Williams amassed 19.3 DraftKings PPG (nine games), via the Trends Tool.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with our Sleeper promo code.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Courtland Sutton ($6,000)
Sutton is way too cheap and he is expected to fly under the radar this week, with our projections slating him to be less than 5% owned on DraftKings. Last season, Sutton generated 14.6 FPTS per game and he was Bo Nix’s clear No. 1 weapon. Sutton led the Broncos with a 25.9% target share and he ranked sixth in targets over 20 yards (29). Not only was Sutton heavily utilized deep, but the wideout also finished ninth in red-zone targets (21).
Sutton and Nix’s chemistry grew stronger as the season went on, with Sutton scoring at least 19 DraftKings points in six of his final 12 games, and the receiver could be in store for a huge season with Nix likely to keep improving in his sophomore campaign.
Sutton is facing a Titans defense that gave up the eighth-fewest yards per pass last season (6.4), but the Vegas oddsmakers don’t fear this matchup, as Denver presents the third-highest implied team total on the slate (25.5 points). Last season, the Broncos saw an implied team total of at least 25 points twice and Sutton surpassed 20 DraftKings points in both those contests.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Cade Otton ($3,800)
Everyone is sleeping on Otton – our projections are slating him for essentially no ownership this week – and he is an excellent, cheap tight end to roster this week. Before having his season cut short due to a knee injury a year ago, Otton saw awesome usage for the pass-heavy Buccaneers, ranking second for the team in target share (19.1%) while running a route on 87% of his team’s dropbacks.
Otton garnered 14 redzone targets in his 14 games and he went off for over 20 DraftKings points in three of these tilts, including a season-best 29.1 DraftKings point outburst against the Falcons, who Otton will open the season against this Sunday.
This NFC South matchup is tied for the highest total on the slate (47.5 points) and Tampa Bay is only favored by 1.5 points. This game has shootout written all over it and Otton has the potential to destroy his cheap salary.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
Pictured: Kyren Williams
Photo Credit: Imagn
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Divisional Round NFL DFS WR Picks Breakdown: Can You Afford to Not Play Ja’Marr Chase?
2023 NFL Playoff Odds: Picks and Predictions for the Conference Championship Games
NFL DFS Conference Championship Picks Breakdown: Build Around Christian McCaffrey
2024 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Six Late-Round Rookies to Target in Best Ball
