We have an excellent 12-game main slate on tap for Week 5 that begins at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
This piece will highlight the top NFL DFS players at each position in our FantasyLabs Player Models in terms of their projected ceiling from our award-winning Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner.
(Do people even read intros?)
Let’s dive in.
Top Model Quarterback Ceiling Projections
Deshaun Watson ($6,700 DraftKings; $8,000 FanDuel)
Watson seemingly makes this column every other week, but this might be the best matchup he’s had all season against a Falcons pass defense that ranks 21st in pass DVOA.
While the Falcons rank sixth in pressure rate this season and Watson tends to take a lot of sacks, he can still compete under pressure just fine, averaging 7.7 yards per attempt with a 109.3 Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR), per Sports Info Solutions. Both marks rank inside the top six in the league.
Additionally, with the exception of Kirk Cousins, the Falcons have allowed at least 20 or more DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks. As Drew Dinkmeyer, Chris Raybon and everyone talked about on this week’s Fantasy Flex podcast, implied team totals correlate well with quarterback scoring, and the Texans are sporting a healthy implied team total of 27 points.
Per our Trends tool, quarterbacks with comparable implied team totals have averaged a +2.02 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Those numbers look even better when you factor in quarterbacks who run the ball. Overall, quarterbacks who’ve averaged at least five rushing attempts per game over the last 12 months have averaged a +2.79 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 61.5% Consistency Rating.
Watson is a solid play in all formats.