Nick Chubb, Robert Woods, and Philip Rivers all rang the Leverage bell last week and crushed at super-low ownership. In fact, four of the top-5 DraftKings scores were posted by players with less than 4% ownership in the Milly Maker: Chubb, Woods, Chris Godwin and Jameis Winston.
Finding these potentially low-owned plays with a solid range of outcomes and particularly a high ceiling is paramount to success in massive guaranteed prize pools like DraftKing’s Millionaire Maker. That combination is key to our proprietary Leverage score in our NFL Models. So let’s discuss some players who could fit that mold in Week 5.
As always, I’ll be using FantasyLabs’ Leverage score, to dig through the data and identify a few of those contrarian plays for tournaments.
Loaded Leverage: Week 5 GPP Targets
Holy guacamole folks, Tom Brady ($6,500) is the only quarterback on DraftKings with a Leverage score above 90% this week. The Patriots’ 28.5-point implied team total is tied for tops on the main slate against a Washington Redskins team that’s surrendered the seventh-most DraftKings points per game to QBs (22.9) this season (per Pro Football Reference). Brady has a low 4.5 Buzz Score compared to DeChalk Watson who has a perfect 10, which influences Brady’s currently projected ownership of less than 5%.
Obviously, as massive favorites, players are likely being cautious thinking that the Patriots will not need to have Brady throwing a ton of passes, which is understandable. For reference, per our Trends tool, in 24 games he’s favored by double-digit points since 2014, Brady has posted 20.43 DraftKings points per game with seven games of more than 25 points and six games of 15 or fewer points.
Keep on eye on Josh Allen, who might play this week because on FanDuel his 27.9-point projected ceiling and projected ownership of less than five percent earns him a position-best 88% Leverage score.
Philadelphia defense has been quite stout against the run this season — ranking fifth in Football Outsiders’ rush DVOA and allowing the seventh-fewest DraftKings points to RBs — but it’s hard to ignore Le’Veon Bell, who is tied with two other backs for the highest DraftKings Leverage score this week (97%).