The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Brooklyn Nets – $9,400 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Damian Lillard is questionable to play tonight and is in a tough spot against the Knicks, so Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the stud of choice. The fifth-year point guard has been sensational this season, averaging a career-high 31.2 points per game while shooting 50.9% from the field. Gilgeous-Alexander’s salary on DraftKings remains exceptionally cheap at $9,400, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating and is averaging over 50 DraftKings points per game.
Gilgeous-Alexander has played in four games since the All-Star break and is averaging 36.3 points per game while making double-digit field goals and capturing at least two steals in each game. The Thunder are 1.5-point home favorites against the Nets, who have been an exploitable matchup despite acquiring elite perimeter defenders. Since the trade of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, the Nets rank 17th in defensive rating.
Needing to continue winning games in the tight Western Conference playoff race, the Thunder will lean on Gilgeous-Alexander now more than ever.
Top Value: Devonte’ Graham vs. Orlando Magic – $5,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
The guard with the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel is Spurs newcomer Devonte’ Graham. Since moving into the starting lineup, Graham is averaging 20 points per game while shooting 47.1% from the field and 45.2% from behind the arc over that time. The Spurs continue to deal with a plethora of injuries, including Tre Jones and Malaki Branham, while Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan are listed as questionable.
The Magic have a great interior defense but really struggle defending the 3-point line. They are allowing 37.1 3-point attempts per game, which is tied for the second-highest in the league. That plays right into Graham’s wheelhouse who has taken 82% of his field goal attempts from behind the arc.
Over the last four games, Graham has averaged 10.5 3-point attempts per game. Projected for 30 minutes, he will get plenty of perimeter shots up.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $10,100 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel
Priced over $10,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Devin Booker has been very deserving of his increasing salary. Over the past six games, Booker is averaging 35.3 points and 54.6 DraftKings points per game. This game is the second leg of a back-to-back after the Suns lost by 11 points against the Warriors last night. Playing without Kevin Durant, who is out for the foreseeable future, has allowed Booker to fully take the reigns on the Suns offense.
Luckily for Booker, the Bucks are also playing the second leg of a back-to-back after beating the Kings by nine points last night. The Bucks rank third in Defensive Rating (109.8), allowing only 112.1 points per game. Despite a difficult matchup, Booker has been very consistent recently, shooting 59.9% from the field and 47.4% from behind the arc in his last six games.
He is another stud to prioritize on DraftKings with the 3-point bonus and cheaper price tag.
Top Value: Devin Vassell vs. Orlando Magic – $6,100 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
After missing two months of action, Devin Vassell has seen increased playing time in four consecutive games as he works his way back. He is projected for 32 minutes tonight after playing 33 in his last game. That type of playing time with so many Spurs injuries is leading Vassell to a high value on both sites. In his last four games, Vassell is averaging only 12.8 points per game, but expect that to increase with getting more and more minutes.
The Spurs are five-point home favorites, but this game has the second-highest total on the slate at 232.5 points. Overall the Magic have the 19th ranked Defensive Rating. This is a good spot to take Vassell, who, in his third year, is averaging a career-high 18.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game.
With the injury concern behind him and so many question marks on who is playing for the Spurs, Vassell is a great target in the mid-range on both sites.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Paolo Banchero at San Antonio Spurs – $7,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
The small forward position is missing a lot of top-tier talent, but getting exposure to Paolo Banchero in this matchup makes up for it. Leading the way for Rookie of the Year, Banchero is averaging a team-high 20 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. His field goal percentage has been inconsistent, but he has been cooking lately, averaging 24 points and over 40 DraftKings points per game. What a great opportunity to stay hot against the Spurs tonight.
The Magic have the highest implied total on the slate at 118.75 points, as they are five-point favorites. Banchero is leading the way at the small forward position with 9 Pro Trends on FanDuel and 8 on DraftKings. The Spurs are the best matchup for any opponent, as they are allowing a league-high 122 points per game and rank dead last in nearly all defensive statistics.
As the Magic’s leading scorer, Banchero will dominate in this matchup against the Spurs’ weak front court.
Top Value: Caris LeVert at Charlotte Hornets – $5,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Caris LeVert has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings among all players and the fourth-highest on FanDuel. The Cavaliers are playing without both Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen, which will provide a significant boost to LeVert. He has scored 15+ points in back-to-back games while playing heavy minutes. The Cavaliers’ last game was against the Hornets, and they won by six points as LeVert scored 15 points in 34 total minutes.
Our NBA Model has LeVert projected for 35 minutes and is one of the best values on both sites. Despite the injuries, the Cavaliers are still 7.5-point road favorites against the Hornets tonight. This is a similar matchup as Banchero against the Spurs, as the Hornets have an atrocious defense and play at the sixth-fastest Pace in the league.
Expect LeVert to start and fill in that scoring role that Mitchell is leaving behind by not playing tonight.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle at Portland Trail Blazers – $9,900 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
With the status of Giannis Antetokounmpo up in the air on a back-to-back, Julius Randle is the stud power forward to get exposure to. Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson is doubtful for this game after missing four of their last five games. With Brunson off the floor this season, Randle is averaging a team-high +8.6 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a +3.6% usage rate. Randle is averaging a double-double for the second time in his career, with a career-high in both points and rebounds.
The Knicks are one of the best road teams in the league with a record of 21-14 and are two-point favorites in Portland. Trail Blazers center Jusuf Nurkic is barely seeing the floor recently, making this a cupcake matchup for Randle. The Trail Blazers are allowing 52.6 points per game in the paint, which ranks as the seventh-highest in the league. They also rank 24th in Rebounding Percentage this season.
A double-double with huge upside is on the table for Randle tonight.
Top Value: Eugene Omoruyi at Washington Wizards – $3,800 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Eugene Omoruyi was acquired by the Pistons earlier this month, and with so many injuries to the Pistons’ frontcourt, he has been put into a prominent role with his new team. Over the last four games, Omoruyi is averaging 13 points and 23.3 DraftKings points while playing 27 minutes per game. The Pistons have so many injuries to list, and a majority are from the starters. Omoruyi is projected to play 32 minutes and be an elite value, especially on DraftKings.
The Pistons are double-digit road underdogs against the Wizards, who are fighting for one of the last play-in tournament seeds. Even in their last game against the Pacers, where they lost by 20 points, Omoruyi still managed to play 32 minutes, so that shouldn’t be an issue for him. The Wizards rank 18th in points allowed in the paint per game, so another double-digit scoring game could be coming.
Omoruyi is a nice salary saver despite the low team total.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Toronto Raptors – $11,600 DraftKings, $12,200 FanDuel
Nikola Jokic and Anthony Davis are two of the best pay-up options on the slate for all positions. Playing them together on both sites is intriguing, but when deciding on the best between the two, it is still the triple-double machine. Jokic has had back-to-back massive triple-doubles averaging 36 points, 15.5 rebounds, 11 assists, and 82.4 DraftKings points per game. With Jamal Murray questionable, Jokic could be asked to continue his high-scoring streak.
The Nuggets have lost three-straight games for the first time all season and are a slight road underdog against a Raptors team that has also lost three in a row. The Raptors have an athletic but small frontcourt which Jokic should feast against. This is a great peripheral matchup for Jokic as the Raptors are an average rebounding team and are tied for fourth with the most assists allowed per game.
Another triple-double is on the horizon for the potential 3-peat MVP.
Top Value: Evan Mobley at Charlotte Hornets – $8,100 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
Playing without Donovan Mitchell and especially Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley is going to look like a great play on both sites. He has the highest projected ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel, with dual eligibility on both sites. Without Allen and Mitchell in the lineup, Mobley is averaging a team-high +6.2 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a +4.4% usage rate increase. He has massive double-double upside playing against a weak Hornets frontcourt.
In his second year in the league, Mobley is averaging a career-high in points, rebounds, assists, and field goal percentage. The Hornets are allowing 59.3 points per game in the paint over their last three games and rank 25th in rebounding percentage this season. Even though Mobley will be popular, he is difficult to avoid in this matchup playing without Allen and Mitchell.
There should be nothing stopping the young big man from having a ceiling game.
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