Tuesday’s NBA slate features Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Thunder are listed as 7.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 217.5.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
It’s a relatively quick turnaround for the Thunder after winning Game 7 vs. the Nuggets on Sunday. The Timberwolves have been off since dispatching the Warriors last Wednesday, so they’ll have a significant rest advantage heading into Game 1. However, the Thunder have been the clear best team in basketball this season, creating an interesting dynamic for Tuesday’s slate.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to take home his first MVP trophy this season, and he’s coming off an MVP-caliber performance in his last outing. He finished with 35 points on 12-19 shooting, and he finished with 54.25 DraftKings points. That’s nothing new for SGA. He led the league in scoring this season, averaging more than 30 points per game for the third straight year, and he’s scored at least 31 points in seven of his past nine outings. He’s capable of getting whatever he wants offensively, seemingly at will, regardless of what opposing defenses are trying to do against him.
This stands out as a solid matchup for him as well. In four regular-season meetings vs. the Timberwolves, Gilgeous-Alexander had at least 37 points in three of them. Overall, he averaged 35.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 6.8 assists, so he exceeded his season averages in all three categories. His +2.89 Opponent Plus/Minus is also the top mark on the slate.
While SGA had to share the floor with the best player in the world in his last series, that’s not an issue vs. the Timberwolves. He’s going to be the top fantasy player whenever he’s on the floor, so he’s a solid pay-up option on this slate.
That said, you could argue that Anthony Edwards has a slightly higher ceiling. He’s not the same caliber of player as SGA in a vacuum, but he’s pretty close. He also has to do significantly more for his team than SGA has to do for the Thunder. He’s ultimately projected for a slate-high 41 minutes on Tuesday, which actually gives him a slight edge over Gilgeous-Alexander in both median and ceiling projection. Edwards is also cheaper, so that gives him the edge in projected Plus/Minus as well.
Edwards is likely going to have to put on the Superman cape if the Timberwolves are going to make the NBA Finals. We’ve already seen him put together some big games during the playoffs, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but one outing. He had at least 50.0 DraftKings points in three of five games vs. the Warriors, and he narrowly missed in the other two.
Of course, playing against the Thunder is not a walk in the park. They were the top defense in the league during the regular season, and they were absolutely ferocious in Game 7 vs. the Nuggets. Even if Edwards has to carry the largest workload on this slate – he has the top projected usage rate in our models – there’s no guarantee he makes the most of it. The Thunder are as well-equipped as anyone to slow him down.
Julius Randle has been one of the best stories of the postseason. He was acquired by the Timberwolves this offseason as part of the trade that sent Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks, and his fit with Minnesota has been far from perfect for most of the year. He missed some time with injuries, and he wasn’t as effective as usual when he was on the floor: his 18.7 points per game was his lowest mark since 2017-18.
However, Randle has found another gear during the playoffs. He’s scored at least 22 points in eight of his past nine games, and he was instrumental in the team’s domination of the Warriors. He had four straight big games to close out that series, including a triple-double with 63.5 DraftKings points in Game 3.
Unfortunately, Randle is no longer available at a discount. He’s up to $10,000 for Game 1 vs. the Thunder, and it’s going to be tough to play him alongside SGA and Edwards. Those two feel like the priority options, which could result in Randle being a bit undervalued: his ownership projection is nearly 20% lower than Gilgeous-Alexander, and it’s closer to 30% lower than Edwards.
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NBA DFS Midrange Picks
Jalen Williams was one of the Thunder’s many stars from their Game 7 win. He was under a ton of pressure after laying an egg in Game 6, and he responded with one of the most impressive performances of his career. He finished with 24 points, five rebounds, and seven assists, and he shot an efficient 10-17 from the field. Williams was also all over the place on defense, and he ultimately finished with 43.25 DraftKings points.
Williams is certainly capable of another strong showing on Tuesday, but he’s not going to benefit from the same volume as the top three options. He’s only projected for 36 minutes in our NBA Models thanks to the Thunder’s incredible depth. That means he’s going to need to be efficient with his playing time, so he carries just a bit of risk at $9,400.
That’s even more true for Chet Holmgren. At his best, Holmgren is one of the truest “unicorns” in the NBA. He can score from the perimeter and protect the rim on defense, and he’s also an excellent finisher around the rim.
However, he doesn’t have the weight of a traditional NBA center. That hurt him from a minute standpoint vs. the Nuggets, with the team reluctant to put him on Jokic defensively.
The Timberwolves don’t have a center with the offensive game of Jokic – no one besides Denver does – but they still have a ton of big bodies. If Holmgren is unable to combat guys like Randle, Rudy Gobert, and Naz Reid on the interior, it could lead to another reduction in playing time.
We currently have Holmgren projected for 32 minutes in Game 1, which makes him a high-risk, high-reward type of option. He should be effective when on the floor – he’s averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute during the playoffs – but the number of minutes he’ll actually play is volatile.
Speaking of Gobert, he’s going to be important for the Timberwolves in this series. One of OKC’s biggest weaknesses is their ability to control the glass. They were just 23rd in team rebound rate during the regular season, and the Nuggets’ rebounding prowess was one of the biggest reasons why that series went seven games.
If the Timberwolves are going to keep this one competitive, they need Gobert to dominate on the boards. He’s proven capable of doing that, especially in the Timberwolves’ Game 5 closeout win vs. the Lakers. He turned in one of the most complete games of his career, finishing with 27 points and 24 rebounds while dominating an undersized frontcourt.
If Gobert can bring that level of intensity on Tuesday, he has the potential to be one of the best values on the slate. If he doesn’t, he has the potential to ride the bench more than expected. He’s another player with a wide range of outcomes, but he stands out as one of the best values in this price range.
It will be interesting to see how much Isaiah Hartenstein we see in this series. He lost playing time as the series vs. the Nuggets progressed, but that won’t necessarily be the case vs. Minnesota. It’s a much friendlier matchup on paper, and his size could prove vital on the interior.
When Hartenstein has been on the floor for the Thunder, he has generally produced. He’s played at least 28 minutes in 32 games with OKC, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.15 in those outings (per the Trends tool). He’s a bit more expensive than you’d like at $7,800, but he has some upside in this matchup.
Jaden McDaniels has become one of the Timberwolves’ most reliable options, at least from a minutes standpoint. He’s currently projected for 38 minutes in our NBA Models, which is tied with Randle for the second-highest mark on the squad. He played at least 40.3 minutes in each of his final three games vs. the Warriors, and he’s played at least 37.6 minutes in seven of his past nine outings.
McDaniels is capable of doing a little bit of everything for fantasy purposes. He’s not elite in any one area, but he’s already had games of 30 points, 13 rebounds, three steals, and three blocks during the playoffs. His ceiling probably isn’t quite as high as some of the players in this price range, but he has a very strong floor.
How the Timberwolves round out their rotation is the last big question in this tier. Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, and Mike Conley are separated by just $1,000 on DraftKings, and all three players are projected for between 24 and 26 minutes.
Reid was the best per-minute producer of the bunch by a wide margin during the regular season. However, that hasn’t necessarily been the case during the playoffs. He’s averaged just 0.85 DraftKings points per minute, while DiVincenzo (0.81) and Conley (0.76) haven’t been far behind.
Conley is arguably the most intriguing of the trio. His role expanded as the series vs. the Warriors progressed, and he racked up 38.5 DraftKings points in the closeout win. It remains to be seen if he still has the athleticism to hang with OKC, but he has the top ceiling projection of this trio in our NBA Models. He’s also projected for the least amount of ownership, though all three are expected to be very contrarian on this slate.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Alex Caruso ($4,800): Caruso was arguably the MVP for the Thunder in Game 7, but that only resulted in 22.0 DraftKings points. His production was felt much more on the floor than in the box score, but he’s no stranger to racking up fantasy points. His veteran experience could continue to pay dividends for the Thunder in the postseason, so he remains underpriced at $4,800.
- Lu Dort ($4,000): Dort was one of the major losers from a playing time perspective vs. the Nuggets. His playing time really diminished throughout the series, culminating in just 17.3 minutes in Game 7. Part of that was due to the game turning into a blowout, but there’s no guarantee he reverts to his usual workload vs. the Timberwolves. We currently have him projected for 28.5 minutes in Game 1, but if his shot isn’t falling, head coach Mark Daignault hasn’t been afraid to put him on the bench.
- Cason Wallace ($3,200): As Dort has played less, Wallace has played more. He’s logged at least 26.8 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s responded with at least 21.5 DraftKings points in both. Ultimately, he and Dort feel like the ultimate reverse correlation pairing on the slate. One will probably provide solid value, and it will likely come at the expense of the other. That makes playing one of the two extremely appealing.
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($2,800): Alexander-Walker has become a perimeter defensive specialist, and that role could be vital for the Timberwolves in this series. Ironically, the person he’ll be tasked with slowing down is his cousin, so he’s seen more reps against him than probably any player in the league. He could end up playing a bit more than expected in this series.
- Jaylin Williams ($2,400): The Thunder employed Williams against the Nuggets to try to slow down Jokic, and they’ll face another big team in this round. That could result in a couple of minutes per night for Williams.
- Aaron Wiggins ($2,000): Wiggins is a solid scorer, and he’d be a legit rotation guy for most of the other teams in basketball. Unfortunately, the Thunder are so deep that they simply haven’t needed much from him during the playoffs. Still, he’s projected for 14 minutes in Game 1, and he has some upside at just $2,000. He was priced as high as $5,200 in OKC’s first-round series vs. the Grizzlies.
- Isaiah Joe ($1,600): Joe has basically been a non-factor for the Thunder recently, though he did get some garbage time points against the Nuggets in Game 7. Unless this game also turns into a blowout, it’s hard to imagine him being fantasy-relevant.
Pictured: SGA
Photo Credit: Getty Images
