It all comes down to this. The NBA season has made it to the latest possible date, with the first Game 7 in the NBA Finals since 2016. It will take place on Sunday night at 8 p.m. ET in Oklahoma City, with the Thunder listed as seven-point home favorites.
OKC has been the best team in the NBA all season, and they’ve already faced one Game 7 during the playoffs. They managed to get past Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets at home, and now they’ll have to do the same vs. the Pacers. If not, the season will go down as a failure. Meanwhile, the Pacers have been counted out since the Eastern Conference semifinals and have continued to defy expectations. Do they have one more shocker left in them?
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
The Pacers’ defense harassed Shai Gilgeous-Alexander into his worst performance of the playoffs in Game 6. They forced him into eight turnovers, and he finished with just 25.0 DraftKings points. It was his third game with a negative Plus/Minus in his past four, so Indiana has done as good a job as anyone at slowing him down.
Still, SGA has been remarkably consistent for most of the postseason. Before his recent stretch, he had posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but two of his playoff contests. Both of those were blowouts, so he returned value every time he saw a full workload.
As long as Gilgeous-Alexander can cut back on the turnovers, there’s no reason to expect another subpar performance. Even in his disappointing fantasy performances, he’s still managed to score the ball at an elite rate. The gap between him and the rest of the players in this contest is absolutely massive: he leads all players in median projection by more than 15 points, and the gap is even larger in ceiling projection. He’s going to set you back quite a bit, but his combination of upside and consistency makes him an extremely tough fade.
Jalen Williams has arguably been the Thunder’s most important player during the postseason. When he plays well, they become nearly impossible to beat. That puts a lot of weight on his shoulders heading into Game 7.
Williams was fantastic in Game 5, scoring 40 points and finishing with 56.5 DraftKings points, but he came crashing all the way down to 19.75 DraftKings points in Game 6. The good news is that he maintained an elevated usage rate. He was at 30.6% on Thursday, marking his fourth straight game with a usage rate above 30. His average of 32.8% over his past four games represents a significant increase from his 27.5% average during the regular season and 26.2% during the playoffs.
With the Pacers placing so much emphasis on slowing down Gilgeous-Alexander, expect Williams to stay aggressive Sunday. He stands out as the second-best option in this tier, trailing only SGA in both ceiling projection and projected Plus/Minus.
Pascal Siakam has been the Pacers’ steadying force during the playoffs. He is as reliable as they come, and he’s often the guy who is asked to score in tough half-court situations. He played a little less than usual in the Game 6 blowout win, but he still managed to get to at least 40.25 DraftKings points for the fourth straight game.
Of course, Siakam definitely has the upside for more. He had at least 50.0 DraftKings points in Games 4 and 5, and he’s one of the few players in this series who already has championship experience. He should be less fazed by the Game 7 pressure than most, making him another solid choice Sunday.
Tyrese Haliburton is the big question mark. When he’s at his best, he’s capable of racking up stats for fantasy purposes. We’ve already seen that in this series, erupting for 57.25 DraftKings points in the Game 3 win.
Unfortunately, Haliburton is not at full strength. He’s currently dealing with a calf injury, and if this game took place during the regular season, there’s a good chance that he wouldn’t suit up. He’s not going to sit out Game 7 of the Finals, but it remains to be seen how effective he’ll actually be.
Haliburton was limited to just 22.9 minutes in Game 6, but he ultimately looked like himself when on the floor. He finished with 27.75 DraftKings points in his limited court time, so there’s plenty of upside here if he returns to his usual workload in Game 7.
That makes him a really interesting contrarian option for tournaments. He owns the worst projections in this tier by a pretty wide margin, but that comes with the lowest ownership projection. Maybe he’s too banged up to make a huge impact, but expect him to leave whatever he has on the floor.
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NBA DFS Midrange Picks
This has been a “stars-and-scrubs” type of series. That is often how things work in the single-game format, especially during the playoffs, but it’s been even more pronounced than usual in this matchup. The gap between the top players and the midrange tier has been massive, and that’s been reflected in the prices for Game 7.
Chet Holmgren stands out as the lone exception. He’s priced essentially in a tier of his own: he’s $2,000 cheaper than Haliburton, but he’s $2,000 more expensive than every other player in this tier.
Holmgren was a massive no-show in Game 6, finishing with just 10.5 DraftKings points across 24.1 minutes. He struggled massively with the Pacers’ physicality, which is something we also saw at times during last year’s postseason. There’s at least some chance that he sees a reduced workload Sunday if that trend continues.
However, there’s also a chance that his minutes move in the other direction. We currently have him projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models, and if he gets to that threshold, he has a good chance to provide value. He averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.15 in 50 career games with at least 32 minutes (per the Trends tool). Holmgren has some bust risk at his current salary, but he has plenty of upside as well.
Alex Caruso is the only guy on the Thunder who has previously hosted the Larry O’Brien Trophy, so the Thunder could lean on his experience in Game 7. He’s already been an extremely important piece for the team during the postseason, averaging 0.94 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and while he’s failed to return value in two straight games, he posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his previous six. That includes two games with at least 31.5 DraftKings points, so he’s another player with a wide range of outcomes.
With Haliburton banged up, Andrew Nembhard becomes even more important for the Pacers. He didn’t see a huge spike in volume in Game 6, but he made up for it was outstanding efficiency. He knocked down five of his seven shot attempts, including three of five from 3-point range, and he added four assists and three steals. Nembhard had struggled in the first five games of this series, so it was a clear step in the right direction. His minimal usage rate caps his upside, but he’s a decent bet to return value.

T.J. McConnell has been the biggest beneficiary of Haliburton’s injury. He’s seen more responsibilities over the past two games, and he’s responded with 32.0 and 38.75 DraftKings points. He’s had a usage rate of at least 28% in both contests, so he’s made the most out of his minutes.
The big question is, how many minutes will McConnell see Sunday? He’s been so good that it’s easy to get carried away, but if Haliburton is going to play more than he did in Game 6, the minutes have to come from somewhere. McConnell is the most likely option. We still have him projected for 21.5 minutes in our NBA Models, but that could end up being optimistic; he failed to crack 18.1 minutes in any of the Finals games before Haliburton got hurt. Add in an elevated price tag, and McConnell becomes an interesting fade candidate.
Myles Turner continues to struggle massively on offense. He was able to make some plays on defense in Game 6, but unfortunately, that doesn’t really help us for fantasy purposes. Overall, he finished with a negative Plus/Minus for the fifth straight game.
Turner is all the way down to $5,600 for Game 7 after checking in at $8,000 in Game 1. That represents a pretty massive decrease, but it’s still tough to make a buy-low argument. His playing time has trended down all series, and unless his shot starts falling, he doesn’t provide a ton of upside.
Obi Toppin appears to be the superior option in the Pacers’ frontcourt. He’s not playing quite as many minutes as Turner, but he’s been far more productive when on the floor. Toppin has racked up at least 27.25 DraftKings points in four of his past seven games, and he’s had at least 32.25 in two of his past three.
Isaiah Hartenstein is another big man whose minutes are trending in the wrong direction. Despite moving back into the starting lineup, he’s logged just 20.9 and 16.1 minutes over his past two games. With the way the Thunder looked in Game 6, it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see him move back to a reserve role Sunday. He should still see a solid handful of minutes regardless, but he brings very little upside to the table at $5,200.
Aaron Nesmith rounds out this price range, and he’s been excellent for the Pacers all postseason. He hasn’t been quite as impactful vs. the Thunder as in some of their previous matchups, but he’s still posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games. His price tag is down a full $2,000 since the start of the series, making him an excellent value for Game 7. He ultimately trails only SGA in terms of projected Plus/Minus.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Lu Dort ($4,000): Dort stands out as another excellent per-dollar option on this slate. His offensive game can be a bit volatile, but his minutes in this series have been pretty consistent. Before the blowout loss in Game 6, he had played at least 32.4 minutes in four of the previous five contests. Dort is currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the most in this tier by a wide margin.
- Bennedict Mathurin ($3,800): Mathurin is the definition of a “bust-or-bust” option, but he’s had more booms than busts recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but one game in this series, and he’s displayed a ceiling of 36.0 DraftKings points. He should continue to see a solid chunk of minutes off the bench, and his scoring could be more important than usual given the defensive nature of Game 7s.
- Cason Wallace ($3,000): Wallace has seen his minutes fall off a cliff recently. He’s coming off fewer than 14 minutes in Game 6, and he had just 17.5 and 18.6 minutes in the two games prior. There’s a chance he plays a bit more in Game 7, especially if he replaces Hartenstein in the starting lineup, but he’s not a particularly strong per-minute producer. Barring a large increase in opportunities, he’s going to struggle to provide value.
- Aaron Wiggins ($2,400): The Thunder are pretty desperate for perimeter shooting at the moment, which has resulted in Wiggins picking up a few additional minutes. He’s the most offensively gifted among the Thunder’s wings, so that trend could continue in Game 7.
- Ben Sheppard ($1,600): Sheppard had a minimal impact on this series before erupting for 17.75 DraftKings points in Game 6. That game was a blowout, and he played more than 20 minutes including garbage time. It’s hard to envision a repeat Sunday, and we currently have him projected for nine minutes in our NBA Models.
- Tony Bradley ($1,000): Bradley has seen a couple of minutes off the bench as the team’s backup center in the past two games. That hasn’t translated into a ton of production, but he could see the court at a minimum salary.
- Kenrich Williams ($1,000): Could more Williams be the answer for the Thunder? It’s possible. He leads the team in scoring differential in this series, so he’s another intriguing play at the minimum.
- Isaiah Joe ($1,000): Finally, Joe is another guy who can give the Thunder some perimeter shooting. He’s not nearly the same caliber of defender as some of his teammates, but if the team is struggling again from 3-point range, he could be a “break glass in case of emergency” type of option.