Game 6 of the NBA Finals will take place Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET. It did not feel like a certainty that the series would make it this far. The Thunder entered as massive favorites, but the Pacers managed to win two of the first three games. However, the Thunder have bounced back with wins in the past two, and they’re now 6.5-point road favorites for Game 6. Counting the Pacers out has not worked out all postseason, but their backs are firmly against the wall at this point.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was slightly overshadowed by one of his teammates in Game 5, but he was fantastic in his own right. He racked up his first double-double of the series, scoring 31 points with 10 assists en route to 60.5 DraftKings points. It was more than enough to pay off his massive $14,000 salary.
It’s the type of production we’ve come to associate with SGA during the postseason. He hasn’t been perfect, but he’s been pretty darn close. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but four games during the playoffs, and two of them were blowouts where he played reduced minutes.
However, the Pacers have done a better job than most at slowing him down. He saw more than 40 minutes in Games 3 and 4, but he finished with 46.25 DraftKings points or fewer in both contests. Those weren’t disastrous performances, but it wasn’t enough to return value. He’s still been able to get his buckets in this matchup, but the Pacers have done a good job of limiting his production in the peripheral categories.
Gilgeous-Alexander is all the way up to $14,200 for Game 6, making him a full $3,600 more expensive than the next priciest player. That’s a pretty large discrepancy, but that’s reflected in our projections. SGA has the top median and ceiling projections by nearly 15 points, so he still stands out as a strong option at his elevated price tag. His combination of upside and consistency makes him a really tough fade.
Jalen Williams has moved up to the No. 2 spot in the pricing spectrum, and he’s coming off the best game of his young career on Monday. He was relentless offensively, with his 35.9% usage rate his top mark of the postseason. He responded with 40 points on 14-25 shooting, and he added six rebounds and four assists.
Williams likely won’t be quite as efficient on Thursday, but expect him to stay aggressive offensively. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 32.4% in three straight games, which represents a tremendous increase. Williams was at just 27.5% during the regular season, and he’s at 26.1% during the playoffs.
That increased aggressiveness gives him more upside for fantasy purposes. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, including 58.25 DraftKings points in Game 5.
However, Williams’ price tag has increased by $1,000 for Game 6, so he’s going to need another ceiling game to provide the same type of value. That’s certainly possible, but it makes him a potential fade candidate. He ranks merely third in projected Plus/Minus out of the four “stud” options.
Tyrese Haliburton leads the way for the Pacers, though it’s hard to get too excited about him. For starters, the Thunder have been relentless against him on defense. That’s not a huge shocker. They were the best defensive team in basketball during the regular season, and they’ve been even more impressive during the playoffs. They have a host of different players to throw at opposing guards, and they’ve limited Haliburton to 38.5 DraftKings points or fewer in four of the first five games.
Haliburton is also currently dealing with a calf injury, which makes him even tougher to roster on Thursday. He was limited to just 22.0 DraftKings points across 34.2 minutes in Game 5, and he’s officially listed as questionable for Game 6. While it seems unlikely that he’ll actually sit out, it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be as effective as usual.
Ultimately, Haliburton is probably best used as a contrarian tournament option. He still has the upside to go off in this matchup, evidenced by his 57.25 DraftKings points in Game 3. His salary has also decreased by -$800 after peaking in Game 4, so he has some buy-low potential. Still, the combination of injury and matchup makes the most likely scenario a disappointing performance.
Pascal Siakam rounds out this tier, and he might be the best pure value of the bunch. He leads this group in projected Plus/Minus, and his median projection is higher than both Williams’ and Haliburton’s.
Siakam has not had nearly the same issues against the Thunder defense as his star teammate. He’s gone for at least 39.5 DraftKings points in four of five games, with the lone exception being the Game 2 blowout. He played less than 30 minutes in that contest, so his lack of production is excusable.
Siakam has been even better recently, going for at least 50.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he could be asked to pick up the slack offensively if Haliburton is limited. While he doesn’t have the same raw scoring potential as SGA, you could make a strong case that he’s the top overall play on the slate.
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NBA DFS Midrange Picks
Williams and Siakam moving into the stud tier makes the midrange group far less appealing. There’s a pretty large price disparity between Siakam and most of the players in this tier, with Chet Holmgren standing out as the lone exception. He’s priced at $8,800, which puts him smack dab in the middle for pricing purposes. He’s -$1,400 cheaper than Siakam, but he’s $2,200 more expensive than the next midrange option.
Holmgren is trending in the right direction. He had two subpar games to start this series, but his minutes have ticked up over his past three. He responded with 38.5 DraftKings points and 39.25 DraftKings points in Games 3 and 4, respectively, before cratering back to 29.75 in Game 5.
The good news is that Holmgren’s underlying metrics in that contest were still strong. He attempted 15 shots from the field, which was tied for his highest output during this series. He also had double-digit rebounds for the third straight game. With some better shooting variance in Game 6, he should be able to post another double-double and get back to around 40 DraftKings points. That doesn’t give him a ton of upside at his current salary, but it definitely keeps him in play.
Alex Caruso is coming off his worst game of the series on Monday. He had scored at least 24.75 DraftKings points in each of the first four games, but he stumbled to just 17.0 in Game 5. He was still a menace defensively, racking up four steals and a block, but he finished with just two points, two rebounds, and two assists.
The good news is that there’s no reason to expect a repeat performance. Caruso was just 1-8 from the field on Monday, and he didn’t make any of his three 3-point attempts. He’s not nearly as appealing at $6,600 as he was at a sub-$5k salary to start the series, but he still has some upside.
It could be Myles Turner’s final game as a Pacer. He’s a free agent at the end of the year, and if he does leave Indiana, his final series with the team will not be remembered fondly. He’s averaged just 13.0 points per game while shooting 22.7% from 3-point range, and he’s scored 26.0 DraftKings points or fewer in four straight games.
Turner was a bit better in Game 5, but his minutes were slashed to 24.7. We currently have him projected for 28.5 minutes in our NBA Models, but that feels optimistic. If Turner has another poor shooting performance, it wouldn’t be a shock if he plays another reduced workload.

Andrew Nembhard is another member of the Pacers who has struggled in this series. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games, and he’s scored 15.25 DraftKings points or fewer in two of them.
However, he’s at least continuing to play steady minutes. He’s played at least 35.9 minutes in each of his past two games, and the team could need him more than usual with Haliburton banged up. Nembhard has turned in some strong performances during the earlier rounds, so he has some buy-low potential.
Obi Toppin is up to $5,600, and he has been the primary beneficiary of Turner’s reduced workload of late. He’s played at least 27.8 minutes in two of his past three games, and he’s scored at least 20.5 DraftKings points in all three.
Unfortunately, Toppin’s smallest workload during that stretch came in Game 5. He saw just 21.7 minutes despite not dealing with foul trouble. He was -16 when on the floor, so it’s possible the Pacers continue to explore some other options at center. We currently have him projected for 23.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and while Toppin is a strong per-minute producer, it makes him a bit risky at an elevated salary.
Isaiah Hartenstein moved back into the starting lineup in Game 4, and the Thunder have won both games since making the switch. That makes him likely to keep that role heading into Game 6.
However, it hasn’t necessarily led to a huge spike in minutes. Hartenstein has played 20.9 and 21.2 minutes in his past two contests, which isn’t much more than he was playing off the bench. Hartenstein was extremely productive in Game 5, racking up 23.5 DraftKings points in his limited minutes, but that stands out as an outlier. He’s averaged just over a fantasy point per minute when on the floor this postseason, and he’s projected for a negative Plus/Minus on Thursday.
T.J. McConnell stands out as an elite value play on this slate. He has always been an elite per-minute producer, and he was instrumental in the team’s comeback in Game 5. He tallied 18 points and 32.0 DraftKings points in just under 22 minutes, and the Pacers were +4 with him on the floor. They weren’t ultimately able to secure the victory, but things would’ve been a lot uglier if not for McConnell.
It will be interesting to see how much he plays in Game 6. He’s currently projected for 21.5 minutes in our NBA Models, but it’s possible he plays more if Haliburton is struggling. Regardless, he should see enough minutes to return value. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.64 with a comparable minute projection as a member of the Pacers (per the Trends tool).
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Aaron Nesmith ($4,800): Nesmith stands out as an outstanding buy-low target. His price was as high as $7,000 at the beginning of this series, so $4,800 represents a tremendous discount. His minutes have trended downward, but he’s still playing enough to make an impact. He’s had at least 21.0 DraftKings points in four of the five games in this series, which is more than enough to justify a spot in your lineup.
- Lu Dort ($4,400): Dort is a low-floor, high-ceiling type of play. It’s hard to find a better combination of price tag and projected minutes, but Dort’s production can be all over the place. He’s had as many as 36.0 and as few as 9.5 DraftKings points in this series, so he has a wide range of outcomes. However, Dort’s production has been much better at home than on the road during the playoffs, and he’s scored 19.0 and 11.75 DraftKings points in his two road games in this series.
- Bennedict Mathurin ($3,600): Mathurin is another volatile option, but the Pacers need his production if they’re going to force a Game 7. He had 36.5 DraftKings points in Game 3 in Indiana, so his upside at this price tag is undeniable. Expect him to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
- Cason Wallace ($3,200): Wallace’s minutes have trended down as this series has progressed, culminating in just 17.5 minutes in Game 5. However, he made the most of his playing time, finishing with 25.0 DraftKings points. I wouldn’t expect a repeat – he’s averaged just 0.71 DraftKings points per minute during the playoffs – but it’s at least within the realm of possibility.
- Aaron Wiggins ($2,800): Wiggins is an extremely capable scorer, and the fact that he hasn’t played more during the postseason is a testament to the Thunder’s depth. He’s logged at least 20.5 minutes in two games in this series, and he’s responded with 23.75 and 28.0 DraftKings points. One of those came in Game 5, so it’s possible he picks up another expanded workload in Game 6.
- Tony Bradley ($1,600): With the Pacers pretty desperate at center, they went to Bradley for 12.3 minutes in Game 5. He finished with 8.5 DraftKings points, which gives him a smidge of appeal at $1,600. He’s probably not going to go off, but he at least has a chance to return value.
- Kenrich Williams ($1,400): Williams hasn’t provided a ton of production in this series, but he logged double-digit minutes in Games 4 and 5. He’s projected for another 10 minutes in our NBA Models, making him a viable punt play.
- Ben Sheppard ($1,200): Sheppard has had some moments for the Pacers during the postseason, but they haven’t really come in this series. He finished with just 6.0 minutes in Game 5, and I wouldn’t expect much different on Thursday.
- Isaiah Joe ($1,000), Thomas Bryant ($1,000), Jaylin Williams ($1,000), Ajay Mitchell ($1,000), & Johnny Furphy ($1,000): This tier of guys is all projected for minimal minutes in our projections, which means they probably won’t play much unless there’s a blowout. However, in that scenario, it’s possible that one of them ends up providing value. They should all be basically unowned, so they’re potential dart throws if you want to build around that scenario.
Pictured: Pascal Siakam (43) & Alex Caruso (9)
Photo Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images