Game 3 of the NBA Finals will take place Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. ET. The two teams split the first two games in Oklahoma City, thanks in part to some late-game heroics from the Pacers in Game 1. The Thunder responded with a dominant performance in Game 2, but the series now shifts to Indiana. OKC is still favored by 5.5 points, but that’s a far cry from the 11.5-point spread we saw in Game 2.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the most expensive player in this matchup, and he is the only true “stud” between the two squads. He led the league in scoring during the regular season, averaging 32.7 points per game, and he’s followed that up with a tremendous postseason. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but two games during the playoffs, and they were two contests where he played reduced minutes in blowouts.
SGA is coming off one of his best outings of the postseason in Game 2. He dominated the game for the Thunder, finishing with an efficient 34 points while adding eight assists, five rebounds, and four steals. His 61.75 DraftKings points were his third-most during the playoffs, but it’s far from an outlier. He’s scored at least 55.25 DraftKings points in six of his past seven outings, with the blowout loss in Game 3 vs. the Timberwolves the only exception.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s remarkable consistency and elite ceiling make him really tough to avoid on this slate. He has been priced up to $13,000 – his highest mark of the postseason – but the gap between him and the rest of the field is massive. He leads all players in median and ceiling projection by roughly 13 points, and he’s first on the slate in projected Plus/Minus as well. Ultimately, he should be in your lineup one way or another.
Tyrese Haliburton has established himself as a star during the Pacers’ playoff run, and he knocked down another massive shot to steal a victory in Game 1. He’s had countless clutch moments during the postseason, completely changing the narrative after being named the NBA’s most “overrated player” in an anonymous poll of his peers.
However, Haliburton has struggle to put up his usual counting stats in this series. That’s not a huge shocker. OKC has the best defense in basketball, and they have been ferocious at times during the playoffs. They’ve limited Haliburton to 38.5 and 36.75 DraftKings points in their first two outings, which is well below his production level vs. the Knicks in the previous round.
Haliburton’s salary has also stayed pretty stagnant, and he’s priced at $11,000 for Game 3. Being back in Indiana could help a bit, but it’s hard to get too excited about him at that figure vs. such an intimidating defense.
Jalen Williams has moved into stud territory at $10,400, despite two mediocre showings to start this series. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in both contests, finishing with 33.5 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 34.25 in Game 2.
The good news is that Williams has shown the potential for much more. He’s shot a combined 11-33 from the field through his first two contests, and he’s just 2-9 from 3-point range. Both of those put him well below his season averages.
Williams is capable of impacting a game in a variety of ways, and he’s averaged 4.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists in his first two games of this series. If he can see some positive regression as a shooter – and add a few additional points to his ledger – he has the potential to provide value. He ultimately edges out Haliburton in projected Plus/Minus, though his ceiling projection is definitely lower.
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NBA DFS Midrange Picks
If the Pacers are going to pull off the upset in this series, they’re going to need more from Pascal Siakam. He took home Eastern Conference Finals MVP for his work vs. the Knicks, turning in at least 30 points in three of six games.
Unfortunately, we’ve seen none of that vs. the Thunder. He had a decent showing in Game 1 thanks to 10 rebounds, but he managed just 15 points and 33.25 DraftKings points in Game 2.
Siakam was limited to less than 30 minutes in his last outing, so he should see a solid uptick in minutes at a bare minimum. He’s currently projected for 35 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s been effective on a per-minute basis over the past month. He’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute during the playoffs, which is just slightly less than Williams’ average for the Thunder (1.14). Considering the price differential between the two players – and the fact that this game is being played in Indiana – Siakam has a good case for being the stronger target.
Chet Holmgren has had a minimal impact on this series for the Thunder up to this point. The team has shied away from using their two-big lineup, so Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein have basically just split the center minutes. Holmgren has logged 23.5 and 27.8 minutes through the first two games, and he’s responded with just 25.5 and 15.0 DraftKings points.
Holmgren might see a smidge more playing time in Game 3, as he’s currently projected for 30.5 minutes in our NBA Models. That makes him an interesting buy-low candidate. He’s still an outstanding per-minute producer when on the floor, and his salary has decreased by nearly -$1,000 from his peak. He’s gone for 40+ DraftKings points on multiple occasions during the playoffs, so he has a solid ceiling for his reduced price tag.
It’s much harder to make a case for the Pacers’ center. Myles Turner has also struggled to find consistent playing time in this series, logging 27.6 minutes or less in both contests. Unlike Holmgren, he’s not expected to see much more in Game 3. He’s also not the same caliber of producer on a per-minute basis, making him a tough roster at $7,400. He ultimately owns the worst projected Plus/Minus among all players priced above $6,200.
Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith have provided strong production for the Pacers all playoffs, and they could offer a bit more value with the series back in Indiana. Nembhard is slightly more expensive and routinely plays a few more minutes, while Nesmith has been the better per-minute producer during the playoffs. Both guys look remarkably similar on paper, but Nesmith gets a slight edge in projected Plus/Minus thanks to his cheaper salary.
One of the Thunder’s biggest strengths is their incredible depth on the perimeter. Unfortunately, that also makes them a tough team to pin down for DFS. Alex Caruso, Lu Dort, and Cason Wallace all have the potential for big games, but it depends on how the minutes shake out on a game-to-game basis.
Caruso is the most expensive of the bunch, and he provides the most upside. He’s an outstanding per-minute producer, and he’s delivered two excellent performances to start this series. He’s scored 31.5 and 26.25 DraftKings points, and he’s logged at least 27.1 minutes in both outings. That represents a significant increase from his regular-season average, and if he’s going to continue to play that much, he’s undoubtedly a value.
Dort probably has the widest range of outcomes. On nights when he’s shooting the ball well – like he did in Game 1 – he can play more than 36 minutes. He was 5-9 from 3-point range in that contest and ultimately finished with 39.0 DraftKings points. That’s the upside scenario with Dort, who is already an elite defender.
On nights when his shot isn’t falling, he can often find himself on the bench for long stretches. His aggressive defense can also get him into foul trouble, which is exactly what happened in Game 2.
Wallace is the most consistent option of the trio, but that comes at the expensive of a high ceiling. He’s yet to go for more than 24.25 DraftKings points during the playoffs, and it’s tough to roster a player with such limited upside at $5,000. He might be able to return value, but that’s not necessarily going to help you win a GPP.
All three of these guys are projected for relatively low ownership, and there’s a decent chance that one of them ends up in the optimal lineup. Picking the right one is the challenge, but it’s not that difficult to spread your exposure to be overweight on all three.
Hartenstein rounds out this price range. He’s been a massive addition for the Thunder, but his impact has diminished as the playoffs have progressed. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in nine straight games, and he’s scored 22.25 DraftKings points or fewer in both games vs. the Pacers.
However, his price tag has plummeted over that time frame. He was as high as $8,000 in Game 7 vs. the Nuggets, and he’s down to just $5,400 for Wednesday’s slate. That’s a pretty massive drop, and he has some buy-low appeal at his current price tag. Even if he continues to play reduced minutes, he can potentially return value.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Obi Toppin ($4,400): Toppin has become one of the Pacers’ go-to big men in recent games. He logged at least 25 minutes in the closeout win vs. the Knicks and Game 1 vs. the Thunder, and he responded with at least 27.25 DraftKings points in both. Toppin is a fantastic per-minute producer, so he has big upside if he can get back to that level in Game 3.
- T.J. McConnell ($4,000): McConnell has been one of the few Pacers that hasn’t really struggled with OKC’s elite defense. He’s done his usual job of producing off the bench, including 28.25 DraftKings points in Game 2. McConnell is expected to see his typical 16-18 minutes off the bench once again on Wednesday, and there’s no reason to expect much different from a fantasy standpoint.
- Aaron Wiggins ($3,200): Wiggins is coming off 28.5 DraftKings points in his last outing, thanks in part to the game turning into a blowout. He played more than 20 minutes for the first time since Round 1 vs. the Grizzlies, which has caused his salary to inflate to $3,200 for Game 3. How much Wiggins plays will ultimately dictate his appeal, but we’re optimistically projecting him for 15.5 minutes on Wednesday. That should give him a chance to return value.
- Bennedict Mathurin ($2,400): Mathurin is expected to be one of the most popular plays in this price range, which makes sense. He’s struggled at times in this series, but he managed to return value in garbage time of Game 2. Mathurin is aggressive offensively whenever he’s on the floor, giving him an outstanding ceiling if his shot is falling. That’s easier said than done vs. the Thunder, but his upside at this price tag is undeniable.
- Ben Sheppard ($2,000): Sheppard is the “floor” play compared to Mathurin. He’s played comparable minutes at times during the playoffs, but he hasn’t provided nearly the same fantasy production. He’s averaged just 0.50 DraftKings points per minute during the postseason, so there’s very little appeal here.
- Isaiah Joe ($1,600): Joe is a perimeter shooting specialist, though his spot in the rotation is murky at the moment. He’s taken three shots in each of the first two games, though he’s scored just 5.5 and 2.75 DraftKings points.
- Thomas Bryant ($1,200): Bryant has served as the team’s backup center for most of the playoffs, and he knocked down a couple of big 3-pointers in their Game 6 win over the Knicks. Unfortunately, he hasn’t had much of an impact vs. the Thunder, but he should see close to 10 minutes in Game 3.
- Kenrich Williams ($1,000): Williams got to play a bit in the series vs. the Timberwolves, though he didn’t in Game 1 vs. the Pacers. He’s ultimately projected for 5.5 minutes on Game 3, which makes him the best of the min-priced options on Wednesday’s slate. He’s still far from a must-play, but he has a chance to provide value even without the game being a blowout.
- Tony Bradley ($1,000), Jaylin Williams ($1,000), Ajay Mitchell ($1,000), & Johnny Furphy ($1,000): This tier of guys is all projected for one minute or less in our projections, which means they probably won’t play unless there’s a blowout. However, in that scenario, it’s possible that one of them ends up providing value. They should all be basically unowned, so they’re interesting dart throws if you want to build around a blowout.
Pictured: Pascal Siakam (43) & Alex Caruso (9)
Photo Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images
