Game 7 — the two best words in sports. Sunday’s slate features the Oklahoma City Thunder hosting the Denver Nuggets in a winner-take-all matchup. The winner advances to take on the Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals, while the loser goes home. The Thunder are listed as 8.5-point favorites, while the total sits at 213.5 points.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
This series has featured two of the very best players in basketball: Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA is expected to take home his first MVP award this season, while Jokic remains the unquestioned best player in basketball. Both players have delivered countless big games, with SGA leading the league in scoring and Jokic averaging a triple-double during the regular season. They stand out as the clear top two players in this contest.
As good as SGA has been, he’s simply not on Jokic’s level from a fantasy standpoint. Jokic is capable of dominating a game in so many different ways, and he averaged an absurd 1.85 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season. He hasn’t been quite that dominant during the playoffs, but he’s still gone off at least 54.5 DraftKings points in five of six games in this series. The lone exception was the blowout loss in Game 2, which limited him to just 32.3 minutes of court time.
Jokic has played more than 40 minutes in the competitive games in this series, and he’s responded with some monster performances. He had 83.5 DraftKings points in Game 1, and he’s had at least 66.0 in each of his past two.
The scary part? Jokic might have to do even more Sunday. The Nuggets have had a thin roster all postseason, and it’s going to get even thinner if Aaron Gordon is unable to suit up. He’s still officially questionable for Game 7, but ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that Gordon could be sidelined for as much as a month with a Grade 2 hamstring injury.
Jokic has seen a team-high usage bump with Gordon off the floor this season, and he’s averaged 1.87 DraftKings points per minute in that split. In full games without Gordon, that increases to 1.93. It gives Jokic a truly astronomical ceiling in a game where Jokic could play nearly the full duration. He ranks first on the slate in median and ceiling projection, and he’s No. 2 in projected Plus/Minus.
While SGA may not have the same upside as Jokic, he’s an elite option in his own right. He struggled with fouls in Game 6, limiting him to just 35.0 minutes, but it was his most efficient game as a scorer. He racked up 32 points on 11-for-16 shooting, and he got to the free throw line for 11 attempts. Ultimately, he still managed to post a positive Plus/Minus for the ninth straight game.
SGA has the potential to see one of the biggest boosts in volume in Game 7. The Thunder have a deep roster, so they haven’t needed to push Gilgeous-Alexander too hard for most of the year. But in an elimination contest? It should surprise no one if he goes 42-plus minutes. We currently have him projected for 40 in our NBA Models, and SGA averaged 1.58 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season.
Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t grade out quite as well as Jokic in our models, but he is available at a significant ownership discount. While Jokic is projected to be the highest-owned player on the slate, SGA is checking in at just 27.3%. If Gordon is out of the lineup, there’s more than enough value to fit both studs and potentially even use one at Captain.
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NBA DFS Midrange Picks
If the Thunder are going to win a championship this season, they’re going to need more from Jalen Williams. He was their second-best offensive player during the regular season, but he has not been nearly as good during the playoffs. He’s shot just 33.7% from the field and 21.2% from 3-point range in this series, and he’s been even worse of late. He’s just 8-for-30 over the past two games, and that’s simply not going to get the job done.
The positive is that Williams has still managed to provide decent fantasy production despite his shooting woes. He had 10 assists in Game 6 and nine rebounds in Game 5, so he’s still managed to get to 36.5 DraftKings points in both contests.
That gives him some buy-low appeal in this matchup. If his shot ever starts falling again, he has the potential for much bigger numbers. He averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season, and he’s projected for 38 minutes in Game 7.
With Gordon likely sidelined, Jamal Murray becomes even more important than usual in Game 7. When he plays well alongside Jokic, Denver becomes a really hard team to beat. It’s what led them to a title two years ago. Those games have been fewer and farther between this go around, but he’s still capable of going off any time he takes the floor. He erupted for 71.25 DraftKings points vs. the Clippers in Round 1, and he has games of 46.0 and 54.0 in this series.
Murray ultimately didn’t see a huge boost in usage sans Gordon during the regular season, but expect him to be aggressive Sunday. His upside could be a bit undervalued.
Chet Holmgren struggled in Games 4 and 5, but he bounced back with a decent showing in Game 6. He still couldn’t find his touch from the perimeter, as he was just 2-7 from 3-point range, but he finished with 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 40.75 DraftKings points. It was his third game with at least 40.75 fantasy points in his last five outings.
However, it’s hard to get too excited about his prospects in Game 7. Holmgren’s minutes have been inconsistent in this series, and he’s played 30.1 or fewer in two of his past three outings. It hasn’t been due to foul trouble either, but his thin frame means the team doesn’t want to use him against Jokic. That has resulted in more minutes for some of the other big men on the team’s roster.
That includes Isaiah Hartenstein. He’s coming off just 25.1 minutes in Game 6, but he logged at least 30.4 minutes in the three prior contests. He scored at least 30.25 DraftKings points in each of those games, and he’s been a solid per-minute producer all season. He’s expected to get back to around 30 minutes Sunday, so he’s an interesting bounceback option. However, he’s a bit pricy at $8,000.
Christian Braun becomes even more important for the Nuggets sans Gordon. He and Gordon have been the team’s two most consistent role players during the playoffs. Braun has played as much as he can handle, and he’s coming off a monster 54.25 DraftKings points in Game 6.
He’s currently projected for 42.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s a great bet to return value with that much playing time. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +8.05 in 23 games with at least 38 minutes (per the Trends tool).
Michael Porter Jr. is a massive X-factor on this slate. He has been more of a luxury item than a necessity for the Nuggets this postseason, but that changes Sunday. He’s going to need to give the team more than he’s given them recently, even with his shoulder at far less than 100%.
That gives him a wide range of outcomes on this slate. Porter has mostly disappointed in this series, scoring 19.5 DraftKings points or fewer in five of six games, but the lone exception provides some reason for optimism. He was able to go more than 42 minutes in the team’s Game 3 overtime win, and he responded with 34.5 DraftKings points. Porter has the potential to see a similar workload Sunday, giving him far more upside than his price tag suggests.
Russell Westbrook is another X-factor. The Nuggets have eased up on his minutes as the series has progressed, but that could change if Gordon is sidelined. He’s still an excellent per-minute producer, and he’s played as many as 34.7 minutes during the playoffs. We currently have him projected for 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and if he gets to that threshold, it’s tough to imagine him not returning value.
However, playing Westbrook more is not the Nuggets’ only alternative. They have a few other players who could absorb Gordon’s minutes, including Porter, so Westbrook has a pretty low floor as well.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Alex Caruso ($4,800): The Thunder have an abundance of wing players, but Caruso is the most experienced. That could benefit him in a Game 7. He’s coming off 27.3 minutes in Game 6, and he provided 22.5 DraftKings points. His per-minute production has been down in this series, but he’s seen enough consistent playing time to warrant consideration at $4,800.
- Lu Dort ($4,200): Dort’s minutes are a bit more volatile. He has shot the ball terribly outside of a three-possession stretch in Game 5, which has cost him some playing time. He’s played 21.0 minutes or fewer in two of his past three games, and Dort is far from an elite per-minute producer. There’s a chance he sees a few more minutes in Game 7, but he doesn’t provide much upside regardless.
- Cason Wallace ($2,000): Wallace has been one of the beneficiaries of Dort’s reduction in playing time. He’s coming off 26.8 minutes in Game 6, which is his highest mark of this series. He’s had at least 21.5 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of six games in this series. At just $2,000, he leads the Thunder players in this price range in projected Plus/Minus.
- Peyton Watson ($1,600): Watson has the potential to be the big winner from the Gordon injury. He’s basically been a nonfactor in the playoffs, but he’s projected for 28 minutes Sunday. If he’s going to play that much, he has the potential to smash his $1,600 price tag. He leads the entire slate in projected Plus/Minus, making him a slam-dunk value target.
- Aaron Wiggins ($1,200): Wiggins is the most offensively gifted of the Thunder wings. However, he’s played 12.5 minutes or fewer in back-to-back games. He still has a chance to provide value with around 12 minutes Sunday, but he’ll need to shoot the ball much better than he has recently.
- Jaylin Williams ($1,000): Williams is a big body, and the Thunder have given him a few additional minutes in this series to combat Jokic. He hasn’t done much with those minutes in most of his outings, but he did finish with 19.25 DraftKings points in Game 6. That’s a lot of potential production for someone priced at the absolute minimum.
- Julian Strawther ($1,000): Strawther was one of the heroes for the Nuggets on Thursday. He played 19.5 minutes off the bench, his top mark of the postseason, and he responded with 19.0 DraftKings points. He shot 4-for-8 from the field and 3-for-4 from 3-point range, which should solidify his spot in the rotation for Game 7. He’s another phenomenal value option.
- Jalen Pickett ($1,000): Pickett could potentially enter the rotation with Gordon sidelined, but it seems unlikely.
- Isaiah Joe ($1,000): Joe didn’t play much in Game 6, but he’s not on the injury report for Game 7. He has the ability to knock down shots from the perimeter, so it’s possible he gets some run Sunday if the Thunder need scoring.
Pictured: Nikola Jokic
Photo Credit: Ed Szczepanski – Imagn Images
