The Knicks managed to pull off a comeback in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but they still trail in the series one game to two. The Pacers will have home-court advantage once again in Game 4, which is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Indiana is currently listed as 2.5-point favorites, while the total sits at 220.5.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Jalen Brunson is coming off one of his worst games of the postseason in Game 3. He struggled with foul trouble, which limited him to just 30.5 minutes of court time. As a result, he finished with just 26.0 DraftKings points.
The good news is that there’s no reason to expect a repeat. Brunson still managed to score 23 points in his limited court time, and he posted a massive 38.0% usage rate. It was his third straight game with a usage rate of at least 37.7%, and he’s at 39.2% overall in this series. No one else is particularly close in that department, with Brunson eclipsing every other player by at least +10.0%. That gives him tremendous upside moving forward.
In addition to the reduced minute count, Brunson was also uncharacteristically quiet in the peripheral categories. He managed just two rebounds and one assist, both of which are well below his playoff averages. He’s averaged 7.3 assists and 3.5 boards so far this postseason, and he had a double-double with 11 assists in Game 2.
Ultimately, Brunson has the potential to improve in every category across the board in Game 4. He should see closer to 40 minutes if he can stay out of foul trouble, and he’s averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute during the postseason. He leads all players in ceiling projection in our NBA Models, and he’s third on the slate in projected Plus/Minus.
Tyrese Haliburton plays the same position as Brunson, but the two rack up fantasy points in completely different ways. While Brunson is more of a combo guard, Haliburton is a more traditional point guard. He’s one of the best pure passers in the game, and he had 11 assists in the first two games in this series. He wasn’t quite as strong in that department in Game 3, but he still provided a balanced stat line with 20 points, four rebounds, seven assists, three steals, and two 3-pointers.
His ability to produce in multiple areas gives Haliburton elite per-minute upside. In fact, his average of 1.25 DraftKings points per minute during the playoffs is the best mark between the two squads.
The big difference between Haliburton and Brunson is that the Pacers simply don’t need him quite as much as the Knicks need their star point guard. Haliburton is projected for 36 minutes in Game 4, which does give him a bit lower ceiling overall. He does check in with a slightly lower price tag than Brunson, but the Knicks’ guard has the edge in projected ceiling and Plus/Minus.
With Brunson limited in Game 3, Karl-Anthony Towns got to be the hero. He racked up 24 points and 15 rebounds, and his 35.5% usage rate was his top mark of the postseason. All but four of his points came in the fourth quarter, so he took over late when the Knicks needed him most.
When he’s at his best, Towns is capable of racking up fantasy points like very few others in the NBA. However, we haven’t seen a ton of that during the postseason. He went for 60.0 DraftKings points in Game 1 of this series, but he played more than 39 minutes including overtime. He only has two other games with more than 45.25 DraftKings points during the playoffs, and they both came in his first three outings vs. the Pistons back in the first round.
Towns is all the way up to $10,600 for Tuesday’s slate, and he’s projected for just 35 minutes in our NBA Models. He still has the potential to provide value at that figure, but he stands out as the weakest of the stud trio using our projections.
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NBA DFS Midrange Picks
Pascal Siakam was the hero for the Pacers in Game 2, finishing with 39 points and 52.75 DraftKings points in the road victory. However, he predictably came crashing back to reality in Game 3. He finished with just 25.0 DraftKings points in 35 minutes, while his usage rate plummeted from 39.3% to 21.5%.
Ultimately, Siakam has a wide range of outcomes in this matchup. He probably won’t get back to 50+ DraftKings points, but he should also be much better than he was in Game 3. Before Sunday’s clunker, Siakam had managed to score at least 35.5 DraftKings points in four straight games.
Unlike Towns, his price tag has also remained reasonable. He was priced at $8,600 for Game 1, and he’s merely $8,800 for Game 4. He’s also projected for less ownership than the top three options, so he’s a viable target on Tuesday.
Mikal Bridges is also coming off his worst game of the series in Game 3. He finished with just 23.0 DraftKings points, but there are plenty of reasons to believe in a bounce-back. He shot just 6-18 from the field in that contest, so he actually had more shot attempts than usual. His 24.6% usage rate was better than his marks in Games 2 and 1, and he managed to get at least 35.25 DraftKings points in both of those outings. With some better shooting luck, he could’ve turned in a much bigger performance.
Bridges also continues to be the Knicks’ workhorse from a minutes standpoint. He’s projected for 41 minutes on Tuesday’s slate, which is the top mark in our NBA Models. That is obviously a good thing for fantasy purposes. Bridges has been projected for at least 40 minutes in 14 games with the Knicks, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.20 in those contests (per the Trends tool).
Despite the massive volume, Bridges could be a bit overlooked on this slate. He’s projected for just 24% ownership, and he has the top leverage rating in our NBA Models. That makes him an interesting way to diversify your lineups.
Myles Turner is coming off his best scoring game of the series on Sunday, finishing with 19 points in just over 33 minutes. That said, his production in the peripheral categories continues to be lacking. He had just four rebounds – his third straight game with five or fewer – and he added just three assists, one steal, and two blocks.
Ultimately, if Turner is going to provide most of his fantasy production through scoring, his upside is a bit capped. He’s gone for 34.75 DraftKings points or fewer in six straight games, yet his price tag has continued to hover around $8,000.
OG Anunoby has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight contests. However, he hasn’t displayed much upside in this series. He’s scored 34.25 DraftKings points or fewer in each of the first three games, and his minutes are trending in the wrong direction. While he was playing as many as 42-44 minutes to start the playoffs, he’s been at 35.9 and 36.9 in each of his past two games.
With the Knicks’ rotation changing slightly in this series, it’s hard to get super excited about Anunoby at his current salary. He doesn’t have the greatest per-minute upside, so he’s not particularly appealing with less than 40 minutes of action.
Josh Hart has been the biggest loser from a playing time perspective of late. He moved out of the team’s starting lineup in Game 3, though he still managed to log 34 minutes off the bench. Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough to return value. He finished with just 28.0 DraftKings points, and he took just three shot attempts from the field.
The big question is how much Hart will play in Game 4. Despite coming off the bench, he actually played more in Game 3 than he did in Game 2. That likely stems from Brunson being in foul trouble, so it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see less than 30 minutes for Hart in this contest. He ultimately has the worst projected Plus/Minus of all players in this price range.
The big reason for most of the Knicks’ regulars seeing fewer minutes of late has been the emergence of Mitchell Robinson. He has had a huge impact when on the floor during the playoffs, and the team has increased his minutes over the past two games. He logged 29.3 minutes off the bench in Game 2, and he had 29.0 minutes as a starter in Game 3.
However, Robinson has had a much larger real-life impact than he has for fantasy purposes. He’s averaged just 0.82 DraftKings points per minute during the postseason, which is far from an elite figure (especially for a big man). He’s scored 23.25 DraftKings points or fewer in each game vs. the Pacers, and while that was enough to return positive value, he’s been priced below $5,000 in each of those contests. Now that Robinson is officially a starter, his price tag has shot up to $6,200. He provides a lot less upside at that figure, making him a solid sell-high option.
Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith round out the Pacers’ targets in this price range. It’s been tough to separate these players all postseason, but that’s not really the case on Tuesday. Nesmith has dipped to just $5,400 on DraftKings, making him a full -$1,600 cheaper than Nembhard. That’s tough to justify.
Nembhard has played a bit more than Nesmith during the postseason, and he’s projected for two additional minutes on Tuesday’s slate. However, Nesmith has been the superior per-minute producer (0.98 vs. 0.88 DraftKings points per minute). As a result, Nesmith actually has superior median and ceiling projections despite the difference in salary.
While Nembhard is still a possible option, Nesmith stands out as one of the best overall plays on the entire slate. He leads all players in projected Plus/Minus, so he should be a staple of most lineups.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- T.J. McConnell ($4,000): McConnell continues to make the most out of his playing time in this series. He’s logged between 14.1 and 15.5 minutes in each of the first three games, and he’s responded with at least 17.5 DraftKings points in all three outings. That’s not out of character for McConnell. He typically operates as the Pacers’ offensive focal point when he’s on the floor, making him an elite per-minute producer. There’s no reason to expect much different on Tuesday, making him a fine selection at $4,000.
- Obi Toppin ($3,600): Toppin stands out as the best target in this price range. He ranks second on the slate in projected Plus/Minus, and he should see a solid bump in playing time in Game 4. He was limited to just 14 minutes in his last outing, but he played closer to 20 in the first two. The Pacers were +19 in Toppin’s minutes on Sunday, and we have him projected to get back to around 20 minutes in Game 4.
- Bennedict Mathurin ($3,200): Conversely, it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see Mathurin fall out of the Pacers’ rotation. His playing time has trended down all series, culminating in just 8.4 minutes in Game 3. He can’t seem to get things rolling offensively, and he doesn’t bring much else to the table. Ultimately, he does have a smidge of buy-low appeal, but he also has plenty of downside.
- Miles McBride ($2,800): Despite Brunson being in foul trouble, McBride saw his fewest number of minutes in this series in Game 3. He still managed to get to 11.0 DraftKings points in his 15 minutes, but that’s not exactly encouraging for his prospects moving forward.
- Ben Sheppard ($2,000): Any reduction in playing time for Mathurin would likely be a positive for Sheppard. His minutes have increased as this series has progressed, and he’s coming off 10.25 DraftKings points across 17.1 minutes in Game 3. He’s not a particularly high-impact player, but he should see a decent handful of minutes for his price tag.
- Cameron Payne ($1,400): Payne logged nine minutes in Game 3, but he finished with just 1.0 DraftKings point. It’s roughly the exact same workload that he saw in Game 2, but he finished with 9.75 DraftKings points in that contest. Ultimately, somewhere in between those two figures feels like his most likely outcome in Game 4.
- Thomas Bryant ($1,200): Bryant picked up a DNP-CD in his last outing, and it’s possible that the same fate awaits him on Tuesday. However, it’s at least possible that he reclaims the backup center job.
- Tony Bradley ($1,000): Bradley seems like the more logical backup center to target. He was the guy who saw the floor in Game 3, playing just under 15 minutes. He ultimately finished with two points, three rebounds, one assist, and one block, so he has some potential at a minimum price tag.
Pictured: Jalen Brunson
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
