NBA

NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Wednesday, November 19)

Wednesday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

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Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
Become an All-Access Member
 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The 76ers are off to a better-than-expected start this season, thanks largely to the play of their dynamic young point guard. Tyrese Maxey has taken his game to another level this season, averaging better than 32 points per game to go with 7.7 assists and 4.9 rebounds. He leads the league with an average of 40.4 minutes per game, and he’s averaged an outstanding 1.37 DraftKings points per minute.

That makes Maxey an underpriced stud at $10,000. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.76 for the season, and he’s scored more than 50 DraftKings points in four of his past five games. He ultimately leads the position in projected Plus/Minus and projected ceiling, which is a tough combination to pass up.

Value

The Heat have played like a completely different team this season. They’ve brought back most of last year’s roster, but they have cranked the pace up to 11. They’re currently first in the league in that department, and they’re averaging roughly nine more possessions per game than they did last year. The results have been excellent for fantasy purposes, with Miami ranking third in the league at 124.6 points per game.

The Heat are still playing without Tyler Herro, and Davion Mitchell has been extremely important in his stead. He’s been the team’s top point guard, and he’s responded with excellent fantasy production. He’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games.

The Warriors also result in an excellent individual matchup. Mitchell owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.61, which is one of the best marks at the position. He ultimately ranks second in projected Plus/Minus among Wednesday’s PGs, and he has the third-highest optimal lineup rate.

Fast Break

Andrew Nembhard stands out as one of the most undervalued options at the position. He’s projected for roughly 11% ownership, but his optimal lineup rate checks in closer to 19% in Sim Labs. Nembhard has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of six games since returning from injury, and he’s had a usage rate of at least 31.3% in two of those outings. That gives him plenty of upside for a shorthanded Pacers squad in a good matchup vs. the Hornets.

Immanuel Quickley got off to a slow start this season, but he has turned things around recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games, and he’s scored at least 39.75 DraftKings points in three of them. Overall, he’s increased his fantasy output to 1.07 DraftKings points per minute for the year. His price tag has crept back up to $6,800, but he still has the ability to pay off that figure.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Anthony Edwards didn’t have to break much of a sweat in the Timberwolves’ last outing. They cruised past the Mavericks, and Edwards was limited to just 29.4 minutes in the victory.

That had an impact on his fantasy numbers, but Edwards has still been excellent of late. He scored more than 50 DraftKings points in three of his previous five outings, and his average of 1.35 DraftKings points per minute ranks second among Wednesday’s shooting guards.

If Wednesday’s game stays a bit more competitive, Edwards has a massive ceiling vs. the Wizards. They’ve been one of the best matchups in fantasy for years, and Edwards owns a +2.84 Opponent Plus/Minus. The Timberwolves’ 127.5 implied team total is also the top mark on the slate. Unfortunately, there’s no guarantee this game will stay competitive: the Timberwolves are listed as 16.5-point home favorites. Still, Edwards has the top ceiling projection at the position, making him a solid choice for tournaments.

Value

The Thunder truly have an embarrassment of riches. They’re off to a 14-1 start, and they’re first in the league in Net Rating. They’ve done that despite not getting a single game from Jalen Williams, while some of their other role players have been in-and-out of the lineup.

Aaron Wiggins will miss Wednesday’s game vs. the Kings, which should keep Isaiah Joe’s role in the rotation pretty safe. He’s currently projected for 24 minutes in our NBA Models, and Joe has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute for the year. That’s a nice combination at just $4,200, and Joe leads the position in projected Plus/Minus. Joe also brings a smidge of upside to the table: he went off for 36.5 DraftKings points vs. the Lakers three games ago.

Fast Break

Bennedict Mathurin returned to the Pacers’ lineup in their last game, and he chipped in 33.25 DraftKings points in just 25.3 minutes. The Pacers are desperate for playmakers at this point, and Mathurin should only play more as he gets further removed from his injury. He’s averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute in his limited court time this season, and he’s projected for 29 minutes Wednesday vs. the Hornets. Mathurin is also priced at a massive discount on DraftKings, with his $6,000 salary coming with a 99% Bargain Rating.

Quentin Grimes is coming off a season-high 35.6 minutes in his last outing, and he responded with 33.5 DraftKings points. He hasn’t been quite as dominant as he was for the 76ers down the stretch last season, but that was to be expected playing alongside Maxey. He’s still averaged a healthy 0.99 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models. He leads all shooting guards in terms of optimal lineup rate.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with our Sleeper promo code.

 

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Small forward is easily the weakest position to pay up for on Wednesday. No one has a median projection above 40 DraftKings points, and most of the top options stand out as poor values in terms of projected Plus/Minus.

De’Andre Hunter is probably the best exception. He’s still far from a true “stud,” checking in at just $6,000, but he’s been extremely productive when on the floor this season. He’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute, and his numbers are way up compared to his 27 games with the Cavs last year.

Cleveland is still playing without Darius Garland, so Hunter should be locked into 30+ minutes in competitive contests. He owns the second-highest optimal lineup rate at the position, and he owns the fourth-best ceiling projection.

Value

The Nuggets are currently without Christian Braun, which has allowed Peyton Watson to take on a larger role of late. He’s played at least 34 minutes in back-to-back games, and while he hasn’t provided much value in those contests, that type of volume is tough to ignore at $4,600. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.91 (per the Trends tool).

The Nuggets also draw a tremendous matchup Wednesday vs. the Pelicans, who are 28th in defensive efficiency. They’re currently implied for 125 points, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Watson to put the ball in the basket.

Fast Break

Moses Moody has become a very important role player for the Warriors. He’s started each of the team’s past four games, and he’s averaged 15.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game during that stretch. Moody has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he should see around 30 minutes in an excellent matchup vs. the Heat. He owns a +3.37 Opponent Plus/Minus, which ranks third among Wednesday’s small forwards.

Jaylen Clark stands out as a potential punt play for the Timberwolves. They’re going to be without Jaden McDaniels on Wednesday, which opens up a few additional minutes on the wing. Clark should be one of the biggest beneficiaries from a playing time perspective. He’s projected for 24 minutes at just $3,300, and he ranks second at the position in projected Plus/Minus.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Sticking with the Timberwolves, Julius Randle stands out as one of the best pay-up targets on the slate. Randle has been an absolute monster in his second year in Minnesota. His numbers are way up compared to last season, and he’s averaging an elite 1.39 DraftKings points per minute. He’s coming off a poor showing in the team’s blowout win in their last contest, but he’s still averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.24 for the year.

McDaniels’ absence only makes Randle more appealing. He’s increased his usage, rebound, and assist rates with McDaniels off the floor this season, and he’s increased his production to 1.61 DraftKings points per minute in that split. He tops all power forwards in ceiling projection, despite checking in at a very reasonable $8,200.

Value

Naz Reid is another strong option for Minnesota. He’s always been an excellent per-minute producer, and he’s averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute for the year. With McDaniels sidelined, Reid’s playing time becomes a lot more secure. He’s projected for 26.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and Reid can do a lot of damage with that type of volume. He’s scored more than 41 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, and he hasn’t cracked 25 minutes in either of those outings.

Reid stands out as the best pure value on the entire slate. He leads all players regardless of position in projected Plus/Minus.

Fast Break

Jabari Smith Jr. is officially questionable for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Cavaliers, but he’d be an interesting option if he’s able to suit up. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, including at least 33.0 DraftKings points in two of his past three. His optimal lineup rate exceeds his projected ownership in Sim Labs, making him an interesting pivot for tournaments.

The Warriors are going to be significantly shorthanded on Wednesday. They’ve already ruled out Steph Curry, Jonathan Kuminga, and Al Horford, while Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, and Buddy Hield are questionable. If Butler is able to go, he should carry a sizable workload vs. the Heat. He’s seen a team-best +5.23% usage bump with  Curry and Kuminga off the floor this season, resulting in 1.33 DraftKings points per minute.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Jokic is making NBA opponents look like high schoolers. He’s having his best statistical season ever, which would’ve been unfathomable before the start of the year. Jokic was already one of the most statistically-dominant players in NBA history, and he’s averaged an absurd 2.04 DraftKings points per minute so far this season.

The only issue is that Jokic’s price tag has now ballooned to $13,000. Jokic clearly still has the ceiling to pay off that type of price tag. He’s gone for at least 86.0 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, and you would gladly pay $13,000 for that type of production. However, it makes it so his “floor” games of around 60 DraftKings points are now much more disappointing.

Still, Jokic is worth considering every time he takes the floor, and he should absolutely dominate against a soft Pelicans’ defense. If this game stays competitive – which is a big ask – Jokic could absolutely break the slate. He’s always worth having some exposure to, especially with his projected ownership currently at around 10%.

Value

The biggest knock on Jokic tonight (besides his salary) is the plethora of value options at the position. That starts with Andre Drummond. He has taken over as the 76ers’ starting center with Joel Embiid out of the lineup, and he’s logged at least 28.2 minutes in five of his past six games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of those outings, including three games of at least 38.25 DraftKings points.

Drummond’s role has also grown in recent games. He’s coming off just under 38 minutes in his last outing, and he had 35.7 minutes the game prior. Drummond isn’t quite as dominant on a per-minute basis as he was in his prime, but he’s still averaging an outstanding 1.11 DraftKings points per minute this season. If he’s going to continue to play an expanded workload, he’s simply too cheap at $6,200.

Fast Break

The Hornets have a pair of solid value centers in Ryan Kalkbrenner and Moussa Diabate. Kalkbrenner is the team’s starter, and he’s projected for more minutes in our NBA Models. That makes him the slightly safer selection. However, Diabate is the superior per-minute producer, and he has a stronger optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs. He has more upside, making him the better choice for tournaments. 

The Pelicans’ decision to trade an unprotected first-round pick continues to look dumber by the day, but at least Derik Queen is a good player. He’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight straight games. He has the top optimal lineup rate at the position, and he could be a bit overlooked with all the value options to choose from.

Pictured: Julius Randle
Photo Credit: Justine Willard-Imagn Images

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Wednesday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
Become an All-Access Member
 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The 76ers are off to a better-than-expected start this season, thanks largely to the play of their dynamic young point guard. Tyrese Maxey has taken his game to another level this season, averaging better than 32 points per game to go with 7.7 assists and 4.9 rebounds. He leads the league with an average of 40.4 minutes per game, and he’s averaged an outstanding 1.37 DraftKings points per minute.

That makes Maxey an underpriced stud at $10,000. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.76 for the season, and he’s scored more than 50 DraftKings points in four of his past five games. He ultimately leads the position in projected Plus/Minus and projected ceiling, which is a tough combination to pass up.

Value

The Heat have played like a completely different team this season. They’ve brought back most of last year’s roster, but they have cranked the pace up to 11. They’re currently first in the league in that department, and they’re averaging roughly nine more possessions per game than they did last year. The results have been excellent for fantasy purposes, with Miami ranking third in the league at 124.6 points per game.

The Heat are still playing without Tyler Herro, and Davion Mitchell has been extremely important in his stead. He’s been the team’s top point guard, and he’s responded with excellent fantasy production. He’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games.

The Warriors also result in an excellent individual matchup. Mitchell owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.61, which is one of the best marks at the position. He ultimately ranks second in projected Plus/Minus among Wednesday’s PGs, and he has the third-highest optimal lineup rate.

Fast Break

Andrew Nembhard stands out as one of the most undervalued options at the position. He’s projected for roughly 11% ownership, but his optimal lineup rate checks in closer to 19% in Sim Labs. Nembhard has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of six games since returning from injury, and he’s had a usage rate of at least 31.3% in two of those outings. That gives him plenty of upside for a shorthanded Pacers squad in a good matchup vs. the Hornets.

Immanuel Quickley got off to a slow start this season, but he has turned things around recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games, and he’s scored at least 39.75 DraftKings points in three of them. Overall, he’s increased his fantasy output to 1.07 DraftKings points per minute for the year. His price tag has crept back up to $6,800, but he still has the ability to pay off that figure.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Anthony Edwards didn’t have to break much of a sweat in the Timberwolves’ last outing. They cruised past the Mavericks, and Edwards was limited to just 29.4 minutes in the victory.

That had an impact on his fantasy numbers, but Edwards has still been excellent of late. He scored more than 50 DraftKings points in three of his previous five outings, and his average of 1.35 DraftKings points per minute ranks second among Wednesday’s shooting guards.

If Wednesday’s game stays a bit more competitive, Edwards has a massive ceiling vs. the Wizards. They’ve been one of the best matchups in fantasy for years, and Edwards owns a +2.84 Opponent Plus/Minus. The Timberwolves’ 127.5 implied team total is also the top mark on the slate. Unfortunately, there’s no guarantee this game will stay competitive: the Timberwolves are listed as 16.5-point home favorites. Still, Edwards has the top ceiling projection at the position, making him a solid choice for tournaments.

Value

The Thunder truly have an embarrassment of riches. They’re off to a 14-1 start, and they’re first in the league in Net Rating. They’ve done that despite not getting a single game from Jalen Williams, while some of their other role players have been in-and-out of the lineup.

Aaron Wiggins will miss Wednesday’s game vs. the Kings, which should keep Isaiah Joe’s role in the rotation pretty safe. He’s currently projected for 24 minutes in our NBA Models, and Joe has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute for the year. That’s a nice combination at just $4,200, and Joe leads the position in projected Plus/Minus. Joe also brings a smidge of upside to the table: he went off for 36.5 DraftKings points vs. the Lakers three games ago.

Fast Break

Bennedict Mathurin returned to the Pacers’ lineup in their last game, and he chipped in 33.25 DraftKings points in just 25.3 minutes. The Pacers are desperate for playmakers at this point, and Mathurin should only play more as he gets further removed from his injury. He’s averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute in his limited court time this season, and he’s projected for 29 minutes Wednesday vs. the Hornets. Mathurin is also priced at a massive discount on DraftKings, with his $6,000 salary coming with a 99% Bargain Rating.

Quentin Grimes is coming off a season-high 35.6 minutes in his last outing, and he responded with 33.5 DraftKings points. He hasn’t been quite as dominant as he was for the 76ers down the stretch last season, but that was to be expected playing alongside Maxey. He’s still averaged a healthy 0.99 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models. He leads all shooting guards in terms of optimal lineup rate.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with our Sleeper promo code.

 

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Small forward is easily the weakest position to pay up for on Wednesday. No one has a median projection above 40 DraftKings points, and most of the top options stand out as poor values in terms of projected Plus/Minus.

De’Andre Hunter is probably the best exception. He’s still far from a true “stud,” checking in at just $6,000, but he’s been extremely productive when on the floor this season. He’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute, and his numbers are way up compared to his 27 games with the Cavs last year.

Cleveland is still playing without Darius Garland, so Hunter should be locked into 30+ minutes in competitive contests. He owns the second-highest optimal lineup rate at the position, and he owns the fourth-best ceiling projection.

Value

The Nuggets are currently without Christian Braun, which has allowed Peyton Watson to take on a larger role of late. He’s played at least 34 minutes in back-to-back games, and while he hasn’t provided much value in those contests, that type of volume is tough to ignore at $4,600. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.91 (per the Trends tool).

The Nuggets also draw a tremendous matchup Wednesday vs. the Pelicans, who are 28th in defensive efficiency. They’re currently implied for 125 points, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Watson to put the ball in the basket.

Fast Break

Moses Moody has become a very important role player for the Warriors. He’s started each of the team’s past four games, and he’s averaged 15.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game during that stretch. Moody has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he should see around 30 minutes in an excellent matchup vs. the Heat. He owns a +3.37 Opponent Plus/Minus, which ranks third among Wednesday’s small forwards.

Jaylen Clark stands out as a potential punt play for the Timberwolves. They’re going to be without Jaden McDaniels on Wednesday, which opens up a few additional minutes on the wing. Clark should be one of the biggest beneficiaries from a playing time perspective. He’s projected for 24 minutes at just $3,300, and he ranks second at the position in projected Plus/Minus.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Sticking with the Timberwolves, Julius Randle stands out as one of the best pay-up targets on the slate. Randle has been an absolute monster in his second year in Minnesota. His numbers are way up compared to last season, and he’s averaging an elite 1.39 DraftKings points per minute. He’s coming off a poor showing in the team’s blowout win in their last contest, but he’s still averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.24 for the year.

McDaniels’ absence only makes Randle more appealing. He’s increased his usage, rebound, and assist rates with McDaniels off the floor this season, and he’s increased his production to 1.61 DraftKings points per minute in that split. He tops all power forwards in ceiling projection, despite checking in at a very reasonable $8,200.

Value

Naz Reid is another strong option for Minnesota. He’s always been an excellent per-minute producer, and he’s averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute for the year. With McDaniels sidelined, Reid’s playing time becomes a lot more secure. He’s projected for 26.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and Reid can do a lot of damage with that type of volume. He’s scored more than 41 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, and he hasn’t cracked 25 minutes in either of those outings.

Reid stands out as the best pure value on the entire slate. He leads all players regardless of position in projected Plus/Minus.

Fast Break

Jabari Smith Jr. is officially questionable for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Cavaliers, but he’d be an interesting option if he’s able to suit up. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, including at least 33.0 DraftKings points in two of his past three. His optimal lineup rate exceeds his projected ownership in Sim Labs, making him an interesting pivot for tournaments.

The Warriors are going to be significantly shorthanded on Wednesday. They’ve already ruled out Steph Curry, Jonathan Kuminga, and Al Horford, while Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, and Buddy Hield are questionable. If Butler is able to go, he should carry a sizable workload vs. the Heat. He’s seen a team-best +5.23% usage bump with  Curry and Kuminga off the floor this season, resulting in 1.33 DraftKings points per minute.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Jokic is making NBA opponents look like high schoolers. He’s having his best statistical season ever, which would’ve been unfathomable before the start of the year. Jokic was already one of the most statistically-dominant players in NBA history, and he’s averaged an absurd 2.04 DraftKings points per minute so far this season.

The only issue is that Jokic’s price tag has now ballooned to $13,000. Jokic clearly still has the ceiling to pay off that type of price tag. He’s gone for at least 86.0 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, and you would gladly pay $13,000 for that type of production. However, it makes it so his “floor” games of around 60 DraftKings points are now much more disappointing.

Still, Jokic is worth considering every time he takes the floor, and he should absolutely dominate against a soft Pelicans’ defense. If this game stays competitive – which is a big ask – Jokic could absolutely break the slate. He’s always worth having some exposure to, especially with his projected ownership currently at around 10%.

Value

The biggest knock on Jokic tonight (besides his salary) is the plethora of value options at the position. That starts with Andre Drummond. He has taken over as the 76ers’ starting center with Joel Embiid out of the lineup, and he’s logged at least 28.2 minutes in five of his past six games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of those outings, including three games of at least 38.25 DraftKings points.

Drummond’s role has also grown in recent games. He’s coming off just under 38 minutes in his last outing, and he had 35.7 minutes the game prior. Drummond isn’t quite as dominant on a per-minute basis as he was in his prime, but he’s still averaging an outstanding 1.11 DraftKings points per minute this season. If he’s going to continue to play an expanded workload, he’s simply too cheap at $6,200.

Fast Break

The Hornets have a pair of solid value centers in Ryan Kalkbrenner and Moussa Diabate. Kalkbrenner is the team’s starter, and he’s projected for more minutes in our NBA Models. That makes him the slightly safer selection. However, Diabate is the superior per-minute producer, and he has a stronger optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs. He has more upside, making him the better choice for tournaments. 

The Pelicans’ decision to trade an unprotected first-round pick continues to look dumber by the day, but at least Derik Queen is a good player. He’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight straight games. He has the top optimal lineup rate at the position, and he could be a bit overlooked with all the value options to choose from.

Pictured: Julius Randle
Photo Credit: Justine Willard-Imagn Images

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