Tuesday features a two-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Stud
We have two Game 5s on tap for Tuesday. Things get started with the Pacers at the Cavaliers, and Indiana has the chance to officially clinch a second consecutive trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. They entered the series as pretty sizable underdogs, but they absolutely boatraced the Cavs in Game 4. After that, the Thunder will host the Nuggets in a series tied at two games apiece. The Thunder have had a historically good regular season, but we’ve already seen two 60-win teams fall behind in this round. Can the Thunder avoid being the third?
Denver has done a pretty good job of slowing down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in this series. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, and he’s shot just 15-41 and 1-11 from 3-point range in those contests. He managed to salvage his night with strong work in the peripheral categories in Game 3 but was not as fortunate in Game 4, finishing with just 44.0 DraftKings points.
Still, SGA stands out as a massive value at just $10,000. It’s a price tag we haven’t seen from him very often, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.65 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool). He led the league in scoring this season—his third straight year with at least 30.1 points per game—so it’s unlikely that he puts together another subpar performance in Game 5.
Ultimately, SGA ranks first at the position in projected ceiling, and he’s first in projected Plus/Minus as well. He’s one of the top overall options of the day.
Value
The Cavaliers are facing elimination after laying an absolute egg in Game 4. They’ll be back at home for Game 5 and are listed as 7.5-point favorites, but they’re going to need to play significantly better if they have any hopes of making a comeback.
Darius Garland has suited up in each of the past two games, but he’s yet to make a real impact in this series. That could change on Tuesday. He logged 27.2 minutes in Game 4, and that figure likely would’ve been higher if the game stayed competitive. He’s projected for 34 minutes currently in our NBA Models, which makes him a strong buy-low candidate at just $6,600. Garland has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.64 with a comparable salary this season, and he remains an excellent per-minute producer. He’s averaged 1.1 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do some damage if he gets to 34+ minutes on Tuesday.
Fast Break
Alex Caruso’s minutes continue to trend up. He’s coming off 28.3 minutes in Game 3, and while he finished with just 18.5 DraftKings points, it bodes well for his prospects moving forward. Caruso has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s too cheap if he’s going to continue to play that much. We don’t have him projected for quite as many minutes on Tuesday, but he still stands out as one of the better sources of savings in the backcourt.
Cason Wallace also has some appeal as a punt play. He was instrumental in the team’s win over the Nuggets on Sunday, finishing with 24.25 DraftKings points in 22.6 minutes. He’s dirt cheap at just $3,200 on DraftKings, resulting in an 84% Bargain Rating.
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
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Donovan Mitchell went down with an injury in Game 4, and he’s officially listed as questionable for Tuesday. If he’s out of the lineup, Garland would become one of the strongest plays of the day. He’s seen a team-high +3.4% usage bump with Mitchell off the court, resulting in an average of 1.35 DraftKings points per minute.
That said, it’s hard to imagine Mitchell sitting out an elimination game. He told reporters he’d “see them on Tuesday” during his postgame press conference, so I’d tentatively expect him to be in the lineup.
Despite the Cavs’ struggles in this series, Mitchell has still been extremely productive. He went for at least 43 points and 65.25 DraftKings points in Games 2 and 3, and he’s posted a usage rate of at least 33.8% in all four games. Overall, he’s averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is better even than Gilgeous-Alexander. As long as he’s in the lineup, expect him to try to get his team to Game 6.
Value
Max Strus continues to get the job done for fantasy players. He was limited to just 22.5 minutes in the Game 4 blowout, but he still managed to post a positive Plus/Minus for the sixth time in his past seven games. He had at least 40.5 DraftKings points in Games 2 and 3, so he stands out as a solid source of value and upside.
Fast Break
Jamal Murray is one of the most high-variance options at the moment. When he plays well, he absolutely smashes. He has games of 54.0, 48.5, and 71.25 DraftKings points this postseason, which is elite production for his price tag. When he doesn’t play well, he has a really hard time returning positive value at all. That makes him a prime GPP target in a must-win game. The Nuggets’ depth has been an issue all playoffs, and Murray has logged at least 41 minutes in three of four games. Expect another heavy workload.
Andrew Nembhard has been tremendous for the Pacers during the playoffs. He’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute while providing solid defensive impact. He’s failed to return value in back-to-back games, but he’s played reduced minutes in back-to-back blowouts. He should pick up a few more minutes if Tuesday’s game is competitive, and he scored at least 30.25 DraftKings points in six of seven games before the past two.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
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Jalen Williams was simply not good enough in Game 4. The Thunder managed to win in spite of him, with Williams shooting just 2-13 from the field and 0-5 from 3-point range. With SGA drawing massive defensive attention, the Thunder need Williams to be more effective moving forward.
Fortunately, there’s no reason to expect him to struggle again. He was brilliant in Game 3, finishing with 32 points and 43.25 DraftKings points, and he’s averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s currently projected for 36 minutes in our NBA Models, and that could be a conservative estimate in a crucial game.
Williams is standing out as undervalued in Sim Labs. He’s projected for roughly 26% ownership, but his optimal lineup rate is closer to 31%. He has the highest ceiling projection at small forward by roughly 15 points, and he trails only Strus in projected Plus/Minus.
Value
Lu Dort is another player who has to be better for the Thunder. He was just 2-10 in Game 4, and the Thunder limited his minutes as a result. He was on the floor for less than 20 minutes total, with the team shifting some of his playing time to guys like Caruso and Wallace instead.
If he can rediscover his jump shot, he should play significantly more in Game 5. The good news is that Dort had a career year from 3-point range during the regular season, including a 45% 3-point percentage in OKC. His salary has come all the way down to $4,000 on DraftKings, making him a phenomenal buy-low target.
Fast Break
What does Michael Porter Jr. have in store for us today? Damned if I know. We’ve seen the best and worst of him at different times in this postseason, but the Nuggets simply have no alternative at the moment. Expect him to see plenty of minutes, and if his shot is falling, he has the potential to provide big value at $4,700.
Like Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith has been outstanding for the Pacers during the playoffs. He hasn’t done much in the two consecutive blowouts, but he’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s projected for 30 minutes in Game 5, making him a solid option at $5,100.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
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Evan Mobley suited up for the second straight game in Game 4, but he was ultimately ineffective in his 26.7 minutes. That said, that stands out as a clear outlier. He had 54.25 and 40.0 DraftKings points in his other two contests vs. the Pacers, so it’s a matchup he can clearly take advantage of.
Mobley ranks first at the position in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s No. 2 in that department on the entire slate. He would also see a big bump if Mitchell is unable to suit up, with Mobley averaging 1.40 DraftKings points per minute with Mitchell off the floor this season.
Value
Obi Toppin has benefited from extended run in each of the past two games. He’s logged roughly 20 minutes in both blowouts, and he erupted for 29.75 DraftKings points in Game 4.
Toppin shouldn’t play as much if this game is more competitive, but he’ll still have a chance to return value. He’s one of the more productive players in his price range on a per-minute basis, and he should maintain a role off the bench. He managed to post a positive Plus/Minus in the first two games of this series despite playing 15.8 minutes or fewer, so he’s a viable punt play.
Fast Break
Aaron Gordon continues to provide huge production for the Nuggets. With Murray and Porter both struggling, Gordon has become arguably the team’s second-most-important player. He’s responded with at least 43.0 DraftKings points in three of four games vs. the Thunder, including in Game 4. Gordon has developed into a legitimate perimeter threat to go along with his work on the glass and as a finisher around the rim, giving him multiple ways to return value on Tuesday.
Pascal Siakam has struggled for most of the postseason, but he snapped out of his funk in a huge way in Game 4. He was 9-10 from the field and 2-2 from 3-point range, finishing with 35.5 DraftKings points in just 21.0 minutes. That’s obviously a bit of an outlier, but Siakam has always been a capable per-minute producer. His price tag has come down significantly to just $6,300, and he trails only Mobley in terms of optimal lineup rate at the position.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
In addition to guys like Murray and Porter struggling for the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic has not looked remotely like himself over the past two games. He’s shot just 15-47 from the field and 2-18 from 3-point range, both of which are well below his regular-season averages.
The good news is that Jokic has still managed to rack up fantasy points despite his shooting woes. He still has at least 54.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, so if his shooting numbers return to normal, he has the clear top ceiling on the slate.
Jokic also played nearly 43 minutes in Game 4, and he’s projected for another 42 minutes on Tuesday. He doesn’t stand out as the best pure value, but he’s capable of breaking the slate.
Value
Isaiah Hartenstein has done yeoman’s work during the playoffs. He’s had to combat Jokic for most of the series, and he’s done a fantastic job. He’s also managed to provide some value for DFS players, scoring at least 33.0 DraftKings points in three straight games.
Hartenstein is coming off 33.2 minutes in Game 4, which was his top mark of the series. Even if he doesn’t get all the way back to that figure—he’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models—he’ll still have a great chance to return value. He’s averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Myles Turner has torched the Cavs. He had at least 38.75 DraftKings points in each of the first two games, and he had 34.75 in just 21.7 minutes in Game 4. His only subpar showing was in Game 3, and he still managed 12 points in the first quarter. Ultimately, he’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his role has expanded since the start of the playoffs.
Chet Holmgren was a disappointment in Game 4, but he had at least 42.25 DraftKings points in his previous two games. He could fly a bit under the radar on Tuesday, with his 14% projected ownership checking in well below his optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs.
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Pictured: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Photo Credit: Getty Images
