Happy Easter! Sunday features a four-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Stud
The NBA playoffs commenced Saturday, with the first four playoff series getting underway. The other four series will kick off Sunday, featuring the top two seeds in each conference and the four teams that qualified through the Play-In Tournament. It’s not expected to be the most competitive slate of games, as three teams are listed as favorites of at least 12.5 points, but we’ll have some good players to choose from in DFS.
That starts with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at point guard. The presumptive league MVP has had a phenomenal season for fantasy purposes, and he’s averaged 1.59 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He has the top ceiling projection on the entire slate by roughly six points, and he’s coming off 62.5 DraftKings points in his final tune-up game before the start of the postseason.
Gilgeous-Alexander benefits from one of the best matchups of the day. He’s taking on the Grizzlies, who have played at the fastest pace in basketball this season. He absolutely torched the Grizzlies in four meetings during the regular season, averaging 36.3 points and 7.2 assists while scoring at least 32 points in each outing. OKC’s 121.5 implied team total is the top mark on the slate by 7.5 points, so paying up for SGA is definitely a reasonable decision for tournaments. He’s also projected for just 11.8% ownership, so it could be a bit contrarian as well.
Value
The biggest hurdle to fitting SGA in your lineups is finding enough value. Fortunately, Brandin Podziemski should help. He’s taken on a much larger role for the Warriors over the second half of the season, and he’s taken full advantage. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.04 (per the Trends tool), and Podziemski is better on a per-minute basis than the typical player in that price range. He’s been priced as high as $6,500 recently, so $5,000 represents a solid value.
Fast Break
Davion Mitchell is another solid source of savings. He’s priced identically to Podziemski at $5,000, and he’s projected for even more playing time vs. the Cavaliers. He was instrumental in the team making the playoffs, scoring 28.25 and 34.0 DraftKings points in their two Play-In Tournament wins, and he racked up 40 minutes of playing time Friday vs. the Hawks.
Tyler Herro also warrants consideration for the Heat. He’s had at least 50.25 DraftKings points in Miami’s two postseason outings, and he’s priced at a discount compared to some of the other top options at the position. His $8,400 salary comes with a 90% Bargain Rating, and his matchup vs. the Cavaliers results in a +4.75 Opponent Plus/Minus.
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
It’s a big year for Donovan Mitchell and the Cavaliers. They’ve had some disappointing playoff exits in the past, but this is the best team they’ve had by a long shot. They need to pay it off with a deep postseason run. Anything short of a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals and a potential date with the Celtics would be considered a massive disappointment.
Mitchell has done a bit less scoring for the Cavs this season, but he has a long track record of getting the job done in the playoffs. He’s averaged 28.1 points per game in 54 career playoff outings, and he should see a solid increase from his average of 31.4 minutes per game from the 2024-25 regular season. He’s projected for 36 minutes Sunday vs. the Heat, and he owns the top ceiling projection at the position.
Value
The Rockets are the biggest wild card among Sunday’s eight teams. They’ve had a phenomenal regular season, finishing with the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, but they’re young and inexperienced. They’re currently the betting underdogs in their series vs. the Warriors, despite having home-court advantage.
One of the Rockets’ biggest flaws is that they lack a true No. 1 option offensively. Jalen Green is going to have to be that guy moving forward. He led the team with 21 points per game during the regular season, though he hasn’t developed a ton from an efficiency standpoint. He’s shot just 42.3% from the field and 35.4% from 3-point range, which aren’t huge increases from when he entered the league four years ago. He also wasn’t great vs. the Warriors in their five regular-season meetings, averaging just 12.6 points, 3.0 assists, and 2.4 rebounds per game.
While that’s not particularly exciting, Green still provides plenty of upside at his $6,900 salary. He has the second-highest ceiling projection at the position, and he trails only Podziemski in projected Plus/Minus. He also has the second-highest optimal lineup rate at shooting guard, making him a nice combination of value and upside.
Fast Break
Could the Thunder decide to dust Alex Caruso off during the playoffs? They’re incredibly deep, so Caruso hasn’t had to do as much as expected during the regular season. However, he’s been extremely productive when on the floor. He’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 20 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s enough to put him in play at $3,800.
Moses Moody has become an important part of the Warriors rotation. He’s not the best on a per-minute basis, but he should be able to return value through sheer volume. He’s projected for 32 minutes at just $4,100, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.39.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
If the Warriors are going to get past the Rockets, they’re going to need a big series from Jimmy Butler. Steph Curry is going to have his hands full dealing with the Rockets’ elite perimeter defense, and they limited him to 19 points or fewer in two of their three matchups. That includes just three points on 1-10 shooting in their most recent meeting.
Butler has a long track record of elevating his game in the playoffs, and we got our first taste of “Playoff Jimmy” during the Play-In Tournament. He led the Warriors with 38 points in their win over the Grizzlies, finishing with 61.75 DraftKings points in just under 40 minutes.
Butler ultimately leads the position in projected Plus/Minus, and his 28.7% ownership projection is quite reasonable. His optimal lineup rate is closer to 40%, so he could be undervalued.
Value
It remains to be seen what the Cavaliers rotation will look like during the playoffs. They have plenty of mouths to feed in their rotation, so it’s possible that Max Strus ends up getting squeezed out a little bit.
However, Strus was excellent for them during the regular season, and he’s still projected for a healthy 30 minutes on Sunday. If he plays that much, he’s a great bet to return value. He’s priced at just $4,000, resulting in a position-best 98% Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
This series could be Amen Thompson’s introduction to some of the more casual NBA fans. While diehards know about his otherworldly athleticism, he’s still not a household name. That could change vs. the Warriors. Thompson will be instrumental in the team’s defensive philosophy against Curry, and he’s projected for 38 minutes in Game 1. Thompson has always been an elite per-minute producer, as he’s averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he has a massive ceiling with that much playing time.
The Warriors have jettisoned Jonathan Kuminga from their rotation down the stretch, opening up some additional opportunities for Gary Payton II. He’s not a big offensive threat, but he’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He racked up 21.0 DraftKings points in just under 20 minutes in their Play-In Tournament win over the Grizzlies, so he has some appeal as a punt play at $3,400.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
If the Magic have any chance of competing vs. the Celtics, they’re going to need a huge series from Paolo Banchero. The former No. 1 overall pick was a usage monster for the Magic down the stretch, averaging a 36.4% usage rate over his final 10 regular-season outings. That would’ve been the top mark in the league if he sustained it over the full year.
Banchero wasn’t really needed in the Play-In Tournament, but playing the Celtics is an entirely different beast. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends, and he provides a similar ceiling to Jayson Tatum at a slight discount.
Value
With Kuminga officially banished, the Warriors are putting all their eggs in Draymond Green’s basket. He’s projected for 33 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Rockets, and he’s going to have to hold his own against an extremely big lineup. We’ve seen Green do exactly that in the past, but he’s not exactly the same player that he was in his prime.
Still, Green has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s still capable of putting up numbers for fantasy purposes. He’s projected for just 22.7% ownership Sunday, but his optimal lineup rate is closer to 32%.
Fast Break
Andrew Wiggins is another X-factor on this slate. He’s put together some big games for the Heat since being acquired from the Warriors, and he racked up at least 41.0 DraftKings points in their two Play-In Tournament wins. He’s averaged 1.2 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, giving him an excellent ceiling at a $7,000 price tag.
Dillon Brooks is another big piece of the Rockets’ defensive identity. He’s not nearly as good a fantasy producer as Thompson, but he should see plenty of minutes in this matchup.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
It has been a pretty quiet year for Bam Adebayo. His production was down basically across the board, but he’s shown some signs of life entering the playoffs. He’s scored at least 48.75 DraftKings points in four of his past six games, and he’s increased his production to 1.23 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He has the top ceiling projection at the position, and he’s fourth in projected Plus/Minus.
Value
Zach Edey’s price tag continues to creep up, but he remains massively underpriced compared to his recent production. He’s taken on a much larger role for the team down the stretch. He’s played at least 27.7 minutes in eight straight games (including the Play-In Tournament), and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of them. There’s no reason that can’t continue. He’s played at least 32.2 minutes in three straight games, and he’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
The Thunder are a tough matchup, as they boast the best defense in the league, but Edey still stands out as one of the strongest options of the day. He trails only Podziemski in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s No. 1 in optimal lineup rate.
Fast Break
Jarrett Allen has taken a bit of a step back over the second half of the season, losing some minutes after the team acquired De’Andre Hunter. However, that’s not a huge concern at just $6,100. He’s projected for 31 minutes vs. the Heat, and Allen is still a very capable per-minute producer.
Finally, don’t forget about Alperen Sengun. He’s the Rockets’ best overall player, and he should be able to take advantage of his matchup vs. the undersized Warriors. He’s averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s an interesting pivot off Adebayo for tournaments.
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Pictured: Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler
Photo Credit: Cary Edmonson, Imagn Images
