The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a six-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
You often read about one site being the better play, but rarely has that been more stark than with Luka Doncic tonight. Doncic is borderline unplayable at DraftKings with his $12,600 salary. He’s a full $1,700 cheaper at FanDuel, and that makes all the difference.
Doncic’s numbers haven’t been the same since his injury. He’s been short of expectations in six of 10 games since returning, though he had three triple-doubles along the way. Doncic has at least 19 points and seven assists in each of those games, so the floor remains high. It’s a great spot against the Warriors, so tonight should be another good chance at a triple-double. Doncic has a +8.11 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel but should be avoided at DraftKings.
Trae Young is the other stud point guard on the slate, but you may want to avoid him anyway. The Suns have been stingy against point guards, with a -2.08 Opponent Plus/Minus. He does have a positive Projected Plus/Minus on both sites.
Patrick Beverley looks like an excellent bargain play at both slates. The Clippers are without Paul George and playing the Cavs, so this is a great spot to grab a Clipper or two. Beverley is averaging a +8.05 over his last 10 games, over expectations in all but one of them. His minutes load is back to normal after his injury, and he’s over +5.6 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Beverley will be matched up against Cavs sophomore Collin Sexton. Sexton will get a +4.2 pace differential along with a +1.21 Opponent Plus/Minus. Sexton has been an excellent DFS option all season, exceeding expectations in over two-thirds of his games. He’s been even hotter lately at +5.55 over his last 10 with all but one game above expectations.
Eric Bledsoe is playing the Knicks, and you don’t need anyone to break down that matchup for you. Bledsoe is +4.15 over his last 10 games and should stay hot in an easy matchup. He’s been more of a scorer since returning from injury and is over +3.2 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Doesn’t it feel like it’s been a minute since a monster James Harden game? With Russell Westbrook out and a juicy +1.94 Opponent Plus/Minus in Memphis, this could be another huge line for the Beard. We project Harden at 38.3 minutes and 40.94% usage, even higher than his usual ball dominance.
You don’t need anyone to tell you how good Harden can be, but he’s the first decision you have to make in your lineup tonight. The Grizzlies are an up-tempo team now, so this is tonight’s highest scoring game with an absurd 239 line from the books featuring an all-time great scorer. Harden is a great play at +6.51 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and an outlandish +13.88 at FanDuel. If you’re not playing him, you better hope you’re right.
No Westbrook means Ben McLemore is in a great spot to succeed too. McLemore has a -0.28 correlation with Russ, meaning his stats are far worse when Westbrook’s are good. That won’t be a problem tonight, and McLemore is over +5.6 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites. If you are fading Harden or just don’t have the cash, he’s a strong bargain option.
If you’re avoiding Rockets, there are a couple great bargain plays at FanDuel. Lou Williams has a 99% Bargain Rating and a +7.22 Projected Plus/Minus there. He’s an obvious beneficiary with Paul George out and could rack up plenty of points in a tasty matchup.
Kevin Huerter is also a 99% Bargain Rating at FanDuel. He can’t match Lou Will’s ceiling and has a more difficult matchup, but he’s at +8.1 Projected Plus/Minus already and could see that number explode if Trae Young sits out and leaves Huerter leading the offense. Unfortunately, Huerter and Williams are mostly neutral plays at DraftKings.
It’s a star-studded night, and Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the way at small forward. For Giannis, the matchup against the Knicks might end up too good to be true. The Bucks are monster favorites against an awful New York team, and that could mean Antetokounmpo coasting and resting for much of a second-half blowout.
Then again, at 1.84 fantasy points per minute on the season, Giannis doesn’t need a lot of time on the court to do damage. Antetokounmpo has a +4.75 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel, where his 97% Bargain Rating makes him a strong stud play along with the other big names of the night. He’s a -2.35 at DraftKings though, and he’s not my first stud choice at FanDuel either with the possibility of a blowout muting his numbers.
The Warriors’ relative stars are back, but now they’re short guys like Damion Lee, Ky Bowman, and maybe Jordan Poole. That leaves plenty of usage for Alec Burks, who’s over +6.1 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites with 32.1 minutes and 16.84% usage projected. Dallas has a +1.39 Opponent Plus/Minus, and Burks gets to do more of the handling with Bowman out, so this is a nice spot for him.
If you’re a few dollars short of Burks, Glenn Robinson Jr. is another good Warriors option here. He’s exceeded expectations in 68% of his games on the season and is over +5.2 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites again.
Joe Ingles remains an excellent moderate option. He’s been handling more with MIke Conley out and is rocking a +7.53 over the past full month, over expectations in 70% of his appearances. He’s in a terrific spot against Brooklyn tonight with a +1.7 Opponent Plus/Minus and a +3.7 pace differential, though he’s a much better bargain at FanDuel.
With so many monster names on the slate, Kawhi Leonard might not be first choice for many. That makes him a very interesting pivot in a great spot against the Cavs with PG out. Remember, Leonard was posting monster numbers early this season before George came back, and Leonard has a night off before and after this one so it’s a good spot for him.
Leonard is a sneaky pivot at over +4.3 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, and he’s almost as strong a superstar option as the other studs at FanDuel with his +9.02 Projected Plus/Minus there.
Our models are bullish on John Collins as a pseudo-stud play, and he could get even better if Trae Young (questionable) is out. Collins has a -0.27 correlation with Young, so his numbers are significantly better without Trae. Collins gets a +1.14 Opponent Plus/Minus against Phoenix, and he’s been hot with 1.31 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s over +5 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Kevin Love gets a +4.2 pace differential and a lion’s share of the usage against the Clippers, and they have been a sieve against more traditional big men all season. Love has finally gotten going with a +3.05 over his last 10, and he’s over +5.4 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites tonight.
P.J. Tucker is another Rocket worth considering. He’s over +4.4 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and could be an interesting pivot if you’re staying away from some of the other good Houston plays. Tucker is the sort of player that takes what’s available, and there’s simply a lot more available with Westbrook out.
It doesn’t get better for centers than against Brooklyn, so Rudy Gobert is in a mash spot. Brooklyn offers a +4.51 Opponent Plus/Minus along with a +3.7 pace differential. Gobert has been putting up bigger numbers with Conley out, exceeding expectations in 65% of his games over the past month. Gobert is a moderate +2.83 Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings but an excellent +7.15 at FanDuel.
You’re going to want to stack a couple Rockets tonight, and Clint Capela is a great start next to Harden. Capela has a plus matchup with +1.09 Opponent Plus/Minus against Memphis. He’s over $1,000 cheaper than Gobert but has a ceiling almost as high. He’s the top center option at both sites with over +8.2 Projected Plus/Minus at each.
Montrezl Harrell remains an excellent bargain at FanDuel, where he has an 81% Bargain Rating and a +6.75 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s yet another Clipper that looks like a good value today, another player who could rack up some of those missing points with PG sidelined.
Speaking of Clippers, former Clipper DeAndre Jordan looks like a nice cheap option if you paid up for studs elsewhere. DJ is over +4 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites even in a difficult matchup against Rudy Gobert. His ceiling is long gone, but he’s over expectations in 63% of his games this month.