The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 12-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Today’s slate isn’t as crazy as Wednesday’s, but it’s pretty darn close. Twenty-four teams will be in action, so there are plenty of options to choose from at each position.
Luka Doncic headlines the PG position, and he’s put together a dominant fantasy season so far. He’s averaging 30.1 points, 10.0 rebounds and 9.5 assists per game, good for an average of 61.0 DraftKings points per game. Not bad for a 20-year-old. Overall, his average of 1.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month ranks second on the slate regardless of position.
He’s in an interesting spot today vs. the Phoenix Suns. They have actually been pretty stingy against opposing PGs this season, giving Doncic an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.66. That said, the Mavericks’ implied team total of 117.0 still ranks fourth on the slate.
Value
Markelle Fultz has earned more playing time for the Magic recently, logging at least 28.4 minutes in each of his past three games. He’s been excellent when on the court this season, averaging 0.91 FanDuel points per minute, so he’s the type of player who can take advantage of additional minutes. Fultz has also seen a slight price decrease after failing to return value in his last game, and his $5,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 73%.
Fast Break
The 76ers are expected to be without Al Horford, Josh Richardson and Kyle O’Quinn today, which increases the value for the rest of their roster. Ben Simmons should see a few additional minutes, and he’s scored at least 38.0 DraftKings points in four of his past five games. He has a solid matchup today vs. the Knicks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.63.
Chris Paul has arguably the best matchup on the slate vs. the New Orleans Pelicans. They currently rank third in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, which is a good formula for fantasy. The Thunder’s implied team total of 116.75 represents a large increase compared to their season average (107.4), and Paul owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.09 on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Donovan Mitchell has failed to return value on DraftKings in each of his past two games, but it’s easy to write those off as outliers. One matchup was vs. the Bucks, who are one of the best defensive teams in the league, and the other was a blowout in which he played just 30.6 minutes.
He’s in a much friendlier spot today vs. the Memphis Grizzlies. They’ve played at the sixth-fastest pace and rank 23rd in defensive efficiency, giving Mitchell an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.39. His salary has also decreased to $7,800 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 78%. This is an excellent buy-low opportunity.
Value
Furkan Korkmaz is an interesting value option at the absolute minimum on FanDuel. He could potentially replace Richardson in the starting lineup, and he’s currently projected for 31.7 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, min-priced players with a comparable minute projection have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.30 (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Jrue Holiday has seen a nice uptick in fantasy production recently. He’s scored at least 45.3 FanDuel points in six of his past nine games, and he’s increased his production to 1.21 FanDuel points per minute. That said, his salary has still decreased by $700 over the past month on FanDuel, making him a nice option at $8,100.
Jeremy Lamb missed seven games recently due to an injury, but he’s returned to his regular workload over the past two games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of those contests, thanks to an average of 1.06 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Atlanta Hawks, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.93 on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Studs
We’ve reached a point with Giannis Antetokounmpo where a game with 30 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and four blocks is a bit disappointing from a fantasy perspective. He posted that exact stat line in his last contest and still finished with a Plus/Minus of -6.23 on DraftKings.
Still, it’s hard not to like him today vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers. Giannis has been virtually unstoppable when on the court this season, averaging 1.93 DraftKings points per minute. His salary has also decreased slightly after failing to meet salary-based expectations in his last game, and his current $12,000 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%. The Bucks’ implied team total of 119.75 ranks second on the slate, and the Cavaliers currently rank 23rd in defensive efficiency.
The only real concern is the potential blowout factor. The Bucks are favored by 11 points despite being on the road, so there is a possibility that Giannis could see fewer minutes than usual.
LeBron James is another option at the position, and he has a dream matchup vs. the Washington Wizards. They’ve been an absolute disaster defensively this season, ranking dead last in efficiency. The Wizards have also played at the fifth-fastest pace, so it’s no surprise that the Lakers’ implied team total of 123.75 points is the top mark on the slate. LeBron hasn’t played in a ton of games with a comparable implied team total, but he has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.32 on FanDuel in those contests.
Value
Matisse Thybulle is another potential value option for the 76ers. The rookie from Washington has a very limited offensive game, but he’s an absolute monster when it comes to the defensive statistics. He averaged 3.5 steals and 2.3 blocks per game as a senior in college, and he’s currently averaging 3.7 steals and 1.9 blocks per 36 minutes in the NBA. That gives him massive appeal on FanDuel, where every steal or block is worth three points.
Thybulle is priced at the absolute minimum on both FanDuel and DraftKings, so he doesn’t need to do much to potentially return value.
Fast Break
Sticking with the 76ers, Tobias Harris has the potential to see a few additional shot attempts given their current injury situation. Even if he doesn’t, he’s definitely underpriced at $6,400 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 75%. Harris has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 35.6 minutes in our NBA Models.
Brandon Ingram could fly a bit under-the-radar today if people opt for a “stars-and-scrubs” approach. He has cooled off a little after a hot start to the season, but he’s still posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past eight games on DraftKings.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis has started to put things together with the Lakers, scoring at least 53.0 DraftKings points in four of the past five games. He got to carry a massive workload in his last contest, posting a season-high usage rate of 43.4%. That was in a “revenge spot” vs. the Pelicans, so he’ll likely see a decrease in that department today.
Still, he’s in an absolute dream spot vs. the Wizards. They’ve been dreadful on the glass in addition to struggling defensively this season, which is an excellent combination for opposing big men. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.74 for Davis on DraftKings, where his $10,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%.
Value
Paying up for Davis becomes even more appealing when you consider the lack of alternatives at the position. The value tier in particular is pretty thin.
Royce O’Neale is playing a bunch of minutes at the moment — he’s currently projected for 29.3 on today’s slate — but he’s averaged a dreadful 0.59 FanDuel points per minute this season. That’s a lot of potential playing time at just $3,900 on FanDuel, but he offers virtually no ceiling.
JaMychal Green is a better fantasy producer when he’s on the court, but his playing time is a bit more scarce. He should return to his normal workload today with Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup, which is typically around 23 minutes. He’s still worth some consideration on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 81%, but he’s another low-upside punt play.
Fast Break
Blake Griffin is starting to play a few more minutes for the Pistons after missing the early part of the season with an injury. He managed to score 35.0 FanDuel points in 30.7 minutes vs. the Hornets in his last contest, and he’ll face them again on today’s slate. He’s a nice value at $7,400 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 75%, and he has the potential to be a GPP winner if he plays more than expected.
Pascal Siakam leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he continues to carry an unparalleled workload for the shorthanded Raptors. He leads the slate with a minute projection of 40.4, and he’s averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s also a nice value on DraftKings, where his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid could be the biggest beneficiary for the shorthanded 76ers today. He’s posted a massive usage rate of 41.8% with Horford and Richardson off the court this season, which represents a large increase compared to his regular-season average of 32.1%. Overall, he’s averaged 1.62 DraftKings points per minute in that situation.
Embiid is also priced at a discount today on DraftKings, where his $9,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. He’s historically been a nice option with a comparable price tag, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.20 on DraftKings.
Value
Jakob Poeltl has posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.21 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he remains affordable at just $4,900 for today’s matchup vs. the Clippers. It’s a solid matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.46 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Tristan Thompson has quietly put together a solid season. He’s averaging career-highs virtually across the board, resulting in an average of 1.13 DraftKings points per minute. He has a nice matchup today vs. the Milwaukee Bucks given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.86 on DraftKings.
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Pictured: 76ers C Joel Embiid (21)
Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
